FOREX BLOG - Get the Latest Forex News and Updates right here

Rumours Of Iran Euro Sales Heigtens the USD Currency

2010-06-03T16:11:00.001+05:30

Rumors from Iran Central bank said that the management had decided to diminish EURO reserves to 20-25 percent from 50 percent and then convert the euro currency into the Dollars and Gold. It is also heard in the market that the sales of the first stage is begin and its target seems to be 15 billion was expected to be finish off till the end of September. EUR 45 billion is expected amount for the whole sales. Iran is expected to reduce its cost of oil sales in euro. While buying seems to be low and USD stays tight against all the major currencies of the Forex online trading market. Prime Minsiter of Japan has announced its resignation leads to the Japanese currency Yen in the soft order in the market. This announcement of resignation is just come before week and now the currenct finance minster of Japan is the successor as the market expects for the chair of Prime Minsiter.

According to the report presented by the Challenger, Gray the US planned to dropped layoff early makes a fall of 65 percent in the month of May where as eurozone PPI rises to 0.9 percent mom. Aussie GDP reaches to a high of 0.5 percent qoq and 2.7 percent yoy in the first quarter of this year that is 2010. While Swiss retail sales rises to 1.3 percent yoy in the month of April. Monetary base roses to 3.7 percent yoy in the end of the may month. Although the Japan currency is not going as good because of the political uncertainity where as apart from this the US currency is gaining as the demand of risky assets rose.

We have seen that the currency pair USD/JPY reaches to the high level of 92.36 first time after the eigteenth of may where as the currency pair EUR/JPY reaches to 113 level as anticipated in the market after the recovery of the US labor market. In the market rumuors are going on about the next leader of Japan that was expected to the current finance minster will take the vacant position of the Prime Minster of Japan that ultimately leads the Yen currency to lag behind in the market from some past days. Th finance minister of Jpana suggested the BOJ to do not look steady at the market try to fight against the deflation to stop it. While rise is seen in the Asia Pacific of 2.4 percent and the Nikkie embedded the goodness in the stocks by rising 2.46 percent more. The stocks seems to be rebound and also triggers the risk appetite because of the japanese investors amendment foriegn bond net purchases to the most expected till the month of September.

There was a advancement shown in the currency pair of AUD/USD that seems to be rises to 0.5 percent and the currency pair NZS/USD rises to 0.4 percent in the consecutive second day at the Forex market. This is all due to the strong economic data that comes from US while the Aussie demands for the risk appetite. Where as the trade balance of the Australian trade adds the surplus in the month of April as there was a high jump shown in the iron ore exports that is of 25 percent more from the past, coal shipments rises to 40 percent more where as the exports also rises to 11 percent as comapred to the April month. RBA has forecasted that the boom of Asia srocks may lag the Australias's trade in the coming time.

The currency pair EUR/USD seems to be in good path as it seems to be rises from 1.2111 to 1.2281 on first june. It gets the support from the stocks rise in the starting of this month. While as about the US economy it was predicted yesterday that the US comapnies are ready to launch 70,000 jobs as the intial jobless came fells to 455,000 from the previous 460,000. In this week there was a meet fixed between the Finance minsters with central bankers of G20 in Bussan that was in South Korea which decides about the current situation of EURO debt crisis. The currencty finance minster of Japan mentioned in his one of the interview that the european debt crisis leads an adverse effect on the Global economic growth of the country merely because of the leading trading countries that is China, india and Brazil are still ready to fight against the deflation as they are robust enough.

Risk Appetite Lifted Up By Strong Economic Data Of US

2010-06-02T13:27:00.001+05:30

In US session as the risk appetite is lifted up by the strong economic data of US that makes the USD to get reversed earlier in the Forex online trading market. It is seen in the market that the manufacturing index of ISM is dropped to 59.7 point from the high level of 60.4 in the month of May. but, it can be said that it seems to be better than the expected rate of the market. Also it gets the achievement of the expansion reading steadiness from the ten consecutive months. since May 2004 it was noticed that the employment component details are also solid and now the details reaches to the high level of 59.8 which provides a ray of hope to the non-farm payroll reading. There was a solid increment is noticed in the exports that is of 62 level, it is the highest level seen after December 1988.

There was a rebound is seen in the DOW and crude oil after the mid-day that is the DOW drops-down to 10038 level where as the crude oil seems to fall to the 71.64 level. USD index got the resistance at the level of 87.46 where as it rebounds after reaching the low of 86.5. Sterling was the biggest hit of Yesterday as it reaches to the highest level because of the fall of the Asian AIG Prudential's takeover. This news not only boosted the Sterling but it also favors the UK stocks as the rise is also seen in the stocks. The UK rise also supports the pound. As we have noticed from the past 16 years PMI manufacturing data remains unchanged from the high level of 58. There was a rise in home prices of 8.5 percent is shown in this year earlier and it is also said by the experts of the market that it is the first time from the past September 2007 a fastest pace is seen in the home prices.

EURO gets a hit in early yesterday as the ECB presents its financial report which acknowledges that the banks are already made a significant improvements as per their financial condition. But still there are 2 important factors that may hurts the financial stability of the market. The first factor is the intensification of public finances and second is the possibility of the obstinate between the public finances and financial sector. These two factors is expected to cause a disorder in the financial situation of the market. Unemployment rate of euro zone countries seems to rise up by 12 year high where as Germany unemployment falls to 7.7 percent in the month of May. While there is a rebound shown by the euro after getting support from the stocks.

Bank of Canada rises the rate yesterday from 25 bps to 0.5 percent as it was the first G7 Central bank that have tighten their policies after the recession period. As this was expected by the market earlier times. The euro zone debt crisis leads to the uncertainty in the market but we have to remain cautious about the Global economic market after the rate hike of 0.5 percent. In early times the RBA makes the decision to hold its rate hike because of the continuous fall of euro currency due to the sovereign debt crisis. RBA only mentioned that the current monetary policies are decorous can bring rate hikes to an average situation. RBA has taken a "pause" from the May month but at that time it was predicted that it will give some good results for June hike but after observing the current situation the RBA again takes a decision for a pause in rate hike.

Dollar index sharp rebound of yesterday suggested that the combinations are still in the progress to reach a high of 87.46. The investors are still expecting the resistance hold at the level 87.46 and expected to again reach the high of 89.62 that was the high of 2009 year. GBP/CAD also rebounds and reaches the level of 1.4831 is now resuming. This rise is seen in the currency pair due to the strength gained by the Canadian Dollar and the support given to the pound from the stocks. These all things supported the currency pairs to rebound from their lows and reaches to the high position in the Forex market.

Strong GDP Growth Rate Strengthened Canadian Dollar

2010-06-01T16:03:00.001+05:30

Yesterday was the day of goodness for the Canadian Dollar since morning because after the release of GDP growth rate report in the market a drastic change is seen in the Canadian Dollar index chart that is it seems to be rises up after the past day lows of the Forex online trading market.

GDP growth rate rises up to six percent that is beyond the expectations of annualized rate. As we have noticed that it grows up to 0.6 percent in the month of March as compared to the Feb. growth rate that is of only 0.3 percent.

It was anticipated in the market that the Canadian Dollar is expected to rise up until the meet of BOC members that will be held today. The market is expecting that the BOC will be the first G7 Central bank that begin the tightening in the market.

Fed will hope to "maintain its accommodate policies of exit" as mentioned specifically by the Fed Chairman Bernanke in mid term of this year. But it is also correct that timing of exit may differ in the countries as their economic conditions may vary among different countries.

The major question that is still in the mind of the EU members are "how the euro zone debt crisis ends will affect the economy of the country that will persist the fact that how to respond" is specified by the Philly Fed Plosser. Since some members was expecting that the economic debt crisis will embed uncertainty in the outlook of the economy.

In May month there was a sudden growth seen in the PMI of Japan and it reaches to 54.7 percent. The industrial production in Japan leads to grow up at the rate of 1.3 percent mom where as it was 25.9 percent yoy in April month.

There was a drop also shown in terms of economic confidence and services confidence that is of 98.4 in the month of may and services dropped up to level three. While there was a drop down also noticed in the euro zone M3 money that is 0.1 percent yoy in the month of may.

Since October 2009 it is seen that the RBA has taken meeting up to 6 times and still it is seen that the RBA will keep their rate unchanged from 4.5 percent.

There are some factors hat suggests the hold of Central bank that is it includes recent development in macro-economic developments along with euro zone economic debt crisis and its impacts on the Global world economy outlook that ultimately heightens the risk aversion and also a mild impact on the moderation of the economic data of Australia.

he European debt crisis embedded uncertainty in the outlook of the Global economy- said by the Chicago Fed Evans and after this if the Fed government decides to keep the price rate low for some extent then it will not make any wonder among the minsters.

If we look at the commodity prices of japan then it seems that it was doing little bit good recovery as compared to other nations that its PMI growth rate is 54.7 percent in the month of May. While the increase is shown in the Industrial production and rises to 1.3 percent mom in May.

The relative strength of the currency pair of AUD and CAD will be determined after the decision of the BOC and RBA minutes that seems to crucial for this week. As we have seen that there is a recovery seen in the currency pair of AUD/CAD after a low of 0.8645.

There will be a further recovery expected in the currency pair of EUR/JPY which was at the tight range today for four hours but it gets recovered around 38.2 percent. It was anticipated in the market that further recovery seems as a correction in the huge down trend in the euro currency pairs.

At last it was only said that the further extent is seen in the Canadian Dollar after the stronger economic data release and now how long will it go to is still a doubtful case fo the investors. BOC minutes will decide in the today's meeting about the "pause" will continue or they will change the interest rate now for the June hike.

Forex: Market Recovers By Improvements In Risk Sentiments

2010-05-31T15:36:00.001+05:30

After getting a support from China, Euro zone countries debt and State Administration of Forex online market acknowledges by China that- "Euro zone is one of the major market for investments among all the nations". This cause the risk sentiments to get a strong recovery in the week. There was a recovery shown in the past week Friday in DOW also. It closed at the level above 10000 and reached above from the intraday low of 9774 to 10136 level. Crude oil reached to the 73.97 level and breached to the level above 75. Nevertheless, the improvement in risk sentiments does not make any changes in the level of euro and it closes at low point on the late Friday. Since, euro gets failed against recovery of major currencies that is Dollar and Japanese Yen.

We all heard about the latest news that Fitch has cut the Spain's rating in the market from AAA to AA+ because of this On Friday there was a sharp fall noticed in the common currency which closes low at the end of past Forex session. Fitch also mentioned the fact that the Spanish economy get reduced because of the adjustments in the lower level of private sector along with external indebtedness. Euro zone nations still worried about the economic recovery after the recent downgrade in the Spain. The concerns about the recovery of austerity measures also added to the part of euro zone concerns about fiscal health. Ultimately these concerns impact on Euro and it shows a drop-down against the Aussie of 4.19 percent where as it drops to 2.83 percent against the Canadian Dollar. The Fitch assigned an stable outlook to the Spain by cutting its rating.

In June month there will be considered a two important developments will get the main focus that is first one is the development seen in the stocks. In last week there was a break out seen in the DOW even though it touches the low of Feb. in some past days. The buying of stocks leads to the rise again at the end of week. Where as the rise in CRB stocks are also shown and leads it to the level above 258. The recoveries was over as argues after the Friday's sell-off and seems to be looked corrective as anticipated by the market experts. There are major events are scheduled by Canada and Australia as they may discuss about the crucial factors that is whether commodity currencies will be steady for long term or not. The market is still expecting a hike from the BOC even though it seems to be in volatile state as the Forex market.

In this week the market main focuses on rate hike of BOC since, the market were pricing only forty percent at only one point where as 25 bps rate hike in terms of BOC as anticipated for this week in the market. But it is seen that OECD has taken an strict action against the BOC and ordered them to remove all the policies that leads the investors to increment their betting as the stocks gets rebounded in past week. Therefore, at the end of the week it is noticed that market gets only a seventy percent rate hike since we all know that BOC rate hike is not a done deal in the market. It is seen that there was a recovery seen in the past week in the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies and commodities of the market. The market experts anticipated that the US and UK market is to be returned on Monday or Tuesday so traders have to be cautious while trading in the market.

In this week it was predicted that RBA may take meeting for giving details about the minutes of there "pause" taken in the month of may. There were seven meetings taken by the banks and issued the borrowing cost raising up to six times. Although this was expected from the starting of the May month before the intensification of the Euro zone financial crisis and also before the fall of the stock market. There was also a fall seen in the Australian market after fourth of May to 4194 from the high of 4753 index level. It seems to be a 12 percent low but again shows a rebound at the end of the month and reaches to 4479 level. But it is still at a low of 11 percent as compared to a high level of 5048 in the month of April. Overall it is expected in the market for a June hike that RBA should take a move that will ignore the previous statements of RBA, so is Aussie.

Forex: Crestfallen GDP Rate Dishearten The Market Sentiments

2010-05-28T13:06:00.001+05:30

Yesterday the rise is seen in the Asian market by the Strong impact of Japan and New Zealand currency. Although the market seems to be in slow pace in the opening Forex online session but it surged as the time goes on and reach to high in the late Forex session. The US equities leads the market drops down in the morning but a sudden rebound is shown in the market as the time passes. There is also a good news from the exports side as they grew to 40 percent high in the fifth consecutive month due to the high selling of cars and high-tech goods. Where as the exports fell by 2.2 percent in New Zealand in the month of April and 4.06 percent in the month of March. While the China shows an impressive increase of 44 percent in exports.

Asian stocks trades seems to be higher than Nikkei and reaches up to 1.23 percent high but still below the 10000 level in the market. There was a further recovery seen in the Crude Oil where as the gold seems to be still holding the position above 1210. The EURO becomes the lower currency of this week but it still maintains it level above 1.2143 versus Dollar as seen in the overnight decline. The US equities seems to be revised above the 3.5 percent as expected annualized growth in the market where as the price index expected to rise up at 0.9 percent and core PCE expected to rose 0.6 percent respectively. There was a overnight recovery noticed in the USD currency due to the EURO weakness. But the Dollar index is still seems to be in low below the high of 87.46.

On Thursday Forex session the stocks gets the rise in the market due to which the US Dollar and Japanese Yen selling will seems to be low in the market. Because of this in the late Forex session both the currency fall down against the stocks. Th main cause of Yen falling is the expanded investors carry trades in the market. Since we have noticed that the US economy revised to 3.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010 year while the exports in Japan seems to be rose strongly in the Q1 session. Despite the weakness in the US retails trends there was still a rise seen in the Sterling currency. As the crude oil gets the price rise of 4 percent and commodity prices reached high there was a sudden rise seen in the Australian and Canadian Dollars. The EURO got advanced after the China's administration of Forex which eventually manages the $ 2.4 trillion of currency foreign exchange mentioned that- China's exchange reserves is always invested by the Europe the major investor market of China.

As we have seen that the US GDP growth rate received a third consecutive quarterly expansion of 3.0 percent after going through the lead rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of the past year 2009. The positive consolidations of the GDP growth rate was business equipments, new inventories along with personal consumption where as the weakest point was the commercial construction, net export rate and non other than government spending. These all factors affects the growth rate of US GDP in the first quarter of the current year 2010. The price index of GDP receives 1.0 percent hike in Q1 as compared to the past year q4 GDP price index which was only 0.5 percent that's why the market expected a price index rate of 0.9 percent in the first quarter.

US jobless claims was seems to be less than anticipated after the MAY 22 which was 14000-460,000 as compared from the past week job-less claims that got a hike of 474,000. Where as there was a hike seen in the consumer price index in the 3 increase in the four consecutive month and leads to 0.1 percent. Th UK retail sales seems to be in negative in the graph since March 2009 and now fall to 18 percent down in the month of May where as it was at 13 percent down in the month of April. While employment level shows a increase in Switzerland up to the modest growth rate of 0.1 percent.

Spain BBVA Bruit Short-lived EURO and Stocks Rebound

2010-05-27T16:33:00.002+05:30

Concerns of Spain BBVA leads to EURO recovery only for a short span of time and again euro resumes its weakness in Yesterday's trading. The bruits about the Spain's second largest bank spreads in the market that the bank is unable to renew short-term funding of $1 billion. This leads the currency pair EUR/USD to back-trade 1.22 level below where as there is a support seen in the currency pair EUR/CHF that is of 1.4138 while the pair EUR/GBP falls to a low level that is below 0.8454.

Since we have seen that the US stocks are unable to steady at the earlier gains show in the US session and falls back in Yesterday trading still after this USD currency and Japanese Yen are trying for the better approach to take lead in the Forex market. As we have noticed that in early US session the stocks are leading the market due to the strong economic growth. The jump of 14.8 percent in the month of April was noticed in the US home sales that rises to 504 k and leads the annualized rate to two year high.

April month was good for the durable goods that is it leads to a growth of 2.9 percent. Although there was drop down seen in the ex-transport order. Investors are in dilemma for buying the Dow as it seen that it has faced a strong resistance at the 10200 level which ultimately leads to the fall of the low below the 10000 level at the end of the forex online session yesterday. It drops down to 0.7 percent in the whole day and reaches to 9975 level.

The warning is given to euro zone countries along with other countries that they have to reconcile support for reaching to some stable and sustainable fiscal path said by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. It is also mentioned by the organization that due to the sovereign financial crisis the euro zone strength is in high demand otherwise it may a chance that Global economy has to face a double dip recession very soon.

The organization ordered Japan to make a credible budget plan to measure the spending. as we know that UK is facing a weak fiscal consolidations therefore it has given advised to make a strong move to strengthen their fiscal position in the market. The market anticipated the growth of Global economy in this year is up to 4.6 percent. The significant rise in risk is noticed in bond yields. Although it was seen that the OECD remains optimistic about the growth of Global economy in the market.

After April 30 meet the BOJ has released minutes Yesterday. The minutes contains the views of the members of the meet that all agreed for the same thing that the "economic global growth foundations should be strengthened". Some members also shows their concerns in terms of the side effects of the easing in the market which ultimately impacts on the financial condition if there was a fall seen in the profit of the bank in terms of interest rate.

Now about the strengths and recoveries seen in the Yesterday's Forex session. First of all about the US major currency Dollar. There was a recovery shown by the Dollar in the late Forex session as it reaches to 86.33 level but the up gradation in Dollar is still limited at the level below 87.46 high. We cannot deny the rise seen in the dollar but it is also the truth it is not equal to other major currencies of the market. The fall of US stocks Dow also strengthen the rise of Dollar since it is the truth that the risk sentiments are the major driver in the Forex market.

Now the latest update about the euro currency as it we have seen that there is no change noticed in the weak euro currency instead there is a sharp fall in the currency pair EUR/GBP. The whole fall seems to be resumed at the level of 0.9317. EUR/CHF is also seems to be rebound on the last week's way for reaching a high of 1.45867 again. But there is a possibility of intervention is also seen near the level of 1.40 in the currency pair. That's all about the latest about the Forex market.

Euro Debt Concerns Heightens Due To Stressed Spain's Bank Industry

2010-05-26T13:24:00.001+05:30

In late US session it was seen that the stocks rebounds benefits the Dollar to hit a high of 87.46. In may month there was a rise of 63.3 percent is seen in the Conference board consumer confidence data. It was highest since March and now reached above the expectations of 59.0. The fall of Euro currency becomes a worldwide threat as said by Bullard. He also mentioned confidently about the economic recovery will remain on track and rise in GDP growth will remain continue in the coming quarter and it leads to a full year growth in national income.

In yesterday's Forex session Global stocks tumbles down and there is rise seen in the USD currency and Japanese Yen. The fall of Global stock market is due to the Spain's banking concerns and Korean currency drop-down. The investors are so much worried about the Spain concerns since it may rise the debt crisis in European countries. The four Spanish bank had submitted a proposal to the Central Bank of Spain to merge their business. This causes the major European index to fall that is FTSE is down to 2.21 percent where as DAX falls to 2.34 low and CAC drops down to 2.9 percent.

Yesterday there was a great fall shown in the Asian stock market due to the Korean fall impacts. While the Dow and S&P shows a rise in the last session of forex to maintain its rebound after breaching to the low of Feb month. The Dow index again rebounds to reach above the 10000 at 10043 and is now just down to only 22.9 percent only from the past high. Dow may be rebounds to Feb's low until it touches a high of 12000.

There is a sharp fall is seen in the Dollar index yesterday that is USD unable to break through the 87 level and drops down. There was a recovery seen in the currency pair of EUR/USD and reaches to level of 1.2671 where as GBP/USD rises to 1.4527 high along with the recovery of AUD/USD to 0.8363 level. Crude oil tumbles further to the level below 67 while Gold remains steady at 1190 level in the Asian market. US equities open at low level to provide an additional support to the USD currency and Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY pair reaches to a low level at 109.32 point in the Forex online market along with the currency pair AUD/JPY that dives to 72.04 low level but this does not impact on the major currency of Japan that is Yen. As we have seen that Japan's currency Yen is still in upward position in the market and may rise to high level in the coming Forex session. The currency pair NWZ/JPY again drops this week as compared to the last week's session. Where as there is some rise shown by the CAD/JPY to regain the past high of 94.46 level. But, it can be said that the currency pair remains bearish although the resistance holds at 85.86 level.

As the banking problem in Spain is the highest priority concern among the market investors because this will lead the European currency to wide spread in the Global economic market which impacts the economic recovery of the market. IMF warned the Spain's bank about the consolidations remains low then the Spanish banks have to get prepared otherwise the financial trouble will lead the bank into an intervention.

BOE policy makers specified the fact about the Japanese economy that it faced the same condition as the UK and US economy is facing today and it may lead to the recessionary condition due to the small policy making mistakes. But the Posen also specified that one major problem that was not faced by the Japan's economy in their recession time was that the poor demand of external prospects along with the productive resource reallocation need.

The euro zone countries again facing the same problem as faced by the last two weeks since the EUR/JPY currency pair falls to 109 level had confirmed the resume of downtrend. The upside break in the currency pair leads to the bullish convergence condition. Although we are expecting a strong support at the level below 2000 in the major currency pair of Japan.

Spain could not spoil the hope - Stocks and Euro are less affected in the storm

2010-05-25T13:12:00.002+05:30

Yesterday a low was seen in the EURO currency due to the news that Bank of Spain is now lead by the government reconstruction funds. This makes the euro to tumble down after hitting the high of $ 1.25. Since we have seen some earlier gain in the euro currency. There is rebound shown in the DOW after getting low in the morning it reaches to 11000 level so early. The Gold also gets rebounds and reaches to 1190 level where as crude oil is still below the 70 level. In US home sales annualized rate turns to 5.77 level as it rises more than expected but the economic data results in some downside in the Forex online market. But, it can be said that the EURO loss is limited that is the currency pair EUR/USD is selling above 1.23 level.

Despite the announcement of GBP 6 billion spending cutting the Sterling currency is trading in mixed range. This includes the budget cost cutting along with the freezing of public sector services and civil services recruitment, cost cutting on expenses of technology, advertising and travel. The Chancellor Osborne said that- the 500 million pounds cost cutting will results in number of useful projects growth. It can be predicted that this year the savings will contribute to the cost cutting deficit. In overnight trading it is seen that the Stock market also results in a low although it is standing straight within 3 months dollar OIS spread results in 25 basis point after nine months high.

There is a sharp low line graph is seen in the chart of the currency pair EUR/AUD and reaches to a rift of 1.49 level. There is drop-down shown at the level of 1.5455 which is said as a correction and there is a also a strong support anticipated from 55 days of EMA to remain in the downside trend. It was anticipated that there will be a rise seen towards 50 percent retraced at 1.6013. Canadian Dollar is on recovery side today but crude oil is still breaching at below level 70. There is a consolidation shown by USD and Japanese Yen versus major currencies since stabilization is shown by currencies risk sentiments. USD/CAD's currency pair drop-down to 1.078 level that ultimately helps the Canadian dollar to sell-off in the downside. AUD/CAD currency pair is also shows drop-down although it is supporting Loonie in general terms. GBP/CAd is still trading below the medium trend falling trend line and 55 days of EMA.

There is a rise in the opening session of Forex in European stocks today. The stocks high will provide support to risks which will lead to forex market consolidations. We hear the news of the BoC market that it will announce the interest rate hike on first June as anticipated by the market. Now it can be said about the currencies growth rate is mainly dependent on the Boc hike. CAD/JPY is still weak although it recovers from the past week's sharp fall. The currency pair is still in the bearish trend even though the market holds a 86.26 minor resistance. In USD chart it is seen that some support is seen around 55 EMA in four hours. There was a break out shown by the currency pair EUR/GBP at 0.8618 level. If it break of at 0.8427 level then it will confirm the decline resumption.

In Asia there is a fall is shown in the EURO currency tumbles down to 1.2385 from 1.2370 level. This is due to the move in Bank of Spain also some austerity programs supported that has been launched in order to provide support to weaker euro zone's member countries to get recover from the debt crisis. There was a big fall in EURO currency pair that is EUR/JPY is shown that is of 110.10 points. AUD/JPY falls to 73.50 from the 74 level and also a drop down shown in the USD/JPY to 90 level.

Overall it can be said that market is still in the consolidation state and there is a risk shown in the Dollar and Yen sell-off. The euro fall is limited to some extent as predicted in the Forex market. Due to solid economic data out in the US the Dollar gets the safe side flow and there is a dynamic move shown by the Gold in Asian market. These are all the latest update about the Forex market till now.

Forex Market: Risk Aversion Intensification Breached To Panic Selling

2010-05-24T13:07:00.002+05:30

In the past week there were two major developments are seen that is with the risk intervention in the Forex market the selling of EURO rebounds. After the German announcement of Stabilisation fund it was seen in the market that euro currency falls continuous and reaches below the 2008 low that is 1.214. In the last week the German government has taken another major step to ban the short selling of stocks. But the fall of US dollar and intervention helps the euro to rebound in the last week. In overall case it can be said that currency pair EUR/USD has found a bottom for only a short span of time and surely it gets recover early to reach to the high level in the market again. in last week the rumours of ECB's help is also heard in the market that also leads to a benefit for the EURO currency.

The intensification of risk aversion was the another important development shown in the market. As we have seen that the S&P was reached below the intraday low that is to the sixth of May panic selling. The crude oil tubles down the past week below the 70 level in the whole week. There was a sharp fall seen in the Aussie dollars that is it falls to 9.29 percent below where as there was a rise of 7.57 percent is shown in the EUR/AUD currency pair. Since this is due to the small rise in the euro currency in last week. The fall of currency pair AUD/USD to 6.29 percent. After the fall of Australian and Canadian Dollar, the RBA "pause" in June is confirmed and it the market aspirants are anticipating that the RBA pause is for the whole year.

Recent stock market weakness will also impacts the BOC's June hike, there was a possibility of cutting costs is increasing day-by-day. The past Friday's rebound in stock results in a contention of selling of stocks and also it was predicted about the combinations currency pair. In past week the economic data also not come up with any good news in the market. In US market there was seen a rise of jobless claims to 471K. After seeing this the market understands that the recovery in job market is still in weak point. There was a supress in inflation is shown due to the fact that the CPI results in moderated 2.2 perecnt yoy in the month of April along with the core CPI 0.9 percent dow yoy. Now the results about the manufacturing data outlook in US that was a jiffy mixed with Empire state index and fall sharply to 19.1 percent in the May month. Where as there was a recovery of 21.4 percent is shown in the Philly Fed index and a mixed outlook was seen in the housing data in past week.

Now the weekly outlook of Euro zone countires where a sharo fall is shown in the month of May in ZEW due to the financial crisis the investors lose their confidence in the currency investment. There was a decline shown in the quality in the climate of Ifo business. While the PMI services is still in strong phase of the market and it was anticipated that the PMI manufacturing will look ahead for the expansion in May. While UK CPI increased abruptly beyond the market expectations and reached to the 3.7 percent in April month. The good results shown in the Public sector borrowing and the fact is clear that the market focus is fixed on the emergency budget plan that will be announced in the month of June.

In Canada, the economic data is shown strong than expected along with CPI and results a high of 1.8 percent yoy in the April month. The retail sales results in 2.1 percent in the month of March that impressed the market and results in gain of USD/CAD's rise to 1.078 level. There was a fall shown in the S&P where as Dow managed its level. On Friday, there was a strong rebound is shown that results in temporary bottom in the EURO currency but it was expected that in this week recovery is shown in the stock market while the overall market remains clumsy and unchanged in this whole week.

Weekly Forex and Economic Report On Market Ups and Down

2010-05-22T16:11:00.001+05:30

Forex online market has shown a moderate growth with low inflation rate in this whole week. Yes, we have seen some growth in the market but it is not at all as anticipated by the government. There was a gain noticed in the private sector jobs but this will impacts the public sector to deficit. This week is not at all good for the USD currency as the last week although this benefits the EURO currency as it goes high in this week and shocked the investors who are thinking that the euro zone countries will remain in loss. The Japan economic recovery also benefits the Global economy as it was predicted after reaching to 4.8 percent in the Q4 but it remains to only 3.9 percent GDP growth in first quarter of year 2010.

Today, we can say about US and European countries that policymakers are expecting more for both the countries but due o low inflation rate to maintain a new economic structure is still difficult. As in this week we have seen that job growth is still in the state of non-existent and credit growth is also moderate while there is a fall is shown in housing recovery. In terms of economy there are two factors that leads to inflation are the fall in building permits along with the housing income growth is also limited. The intermediate goods have shown growth of 5.6 percent as compared from the past year. Due to improving Global demand there was a hike in prices of commodities is shown. However it can be said that Asian market is well stabilized instead the Europe has shown the instability in their economy and captures the attention of the investors.

There was a positive outcome shown in the Japan's economy since the fourth quarter of past year and the expectations of investors becomes high but in the current year the GDP growth is only 3.9 percent only despite the fact that that the experts after seeing growth in q4 was expecting a high rate in GDP. But it can be said that about the economy of Japan that there was a growth rate shown in the exports and Japan's government is now making plans to invest more capital for buying latest equipments to improve the outcomes from the manufacturing companies. It was predicted about the Japan's economy that it will be accelerated to nearly 3.4 percent before getting in the pause state of 1.8 percent in the year 2011. Taiwan's economy rate added further heft in the strong Asian economy by leading to 13.27 percent high from the past year's growth. It can be said that the Asian market will lead to be a good base for the Global economic recovery this year.

Now about the US market which leads to hike results in euro currency deficits. The rise of USD dumps the prices of commodities and equities in US. There was a second largest inflow is shown in the US financial assets as the foreign investors invested their $ 100 in buying treasury securities in the month of March. It was fore-casted about the Treasury that it will be at low of 4 percent at the year's end. Since beyond the major problems in US financial conditions there will be a return game is played after the investment. The main driving factor that leads to the US dollars to high is the drop down of EURO currency. It can be predicted that the Fed government can take measures to increment the fund rates in this year.

Now looking ahead for the next week forex session it can be said that the inference of number of financial data's that are released yesterday will lead some instability in the market. Since EU finance ministers are set to meet yesterday for discussing about the euro zone countries financial matter and economic recovery measures. German Finance minster has presented a plan that include the measures taken for budget cuts and also the cost cutting along with the penalties for the countries that not follow rules and regulations. BOJ has decided to unchanged their interest rate that is to be 0.1 percent after seeing the GDP growth rate of Japan. Dollar index is seen to be snugged at the short term rate of 87.6. There was a high shown in EUR/CHF after the gain of EURO currency from 1.2150 to 1.2644 points. The coming week mainly focuses on German info, UK public sector current borrowing and lastly the euro zone PMI's.

USD Dumps Risky Prices of Assets In The Market

2010-05-21T16:19:00.003+05:30

On Thursday, there is a mixed trade is sown in USD trading. The Dollar Forex online trading counts lower then the Yen but it seems to be higher in comparison to the commodities of other major currencies. There was a great fall shown in the US equities and commodities along with interest rates and in gold prices because of the high pressure of deflation in US financial market. The Fores traders are worried due to the European bond crisis along with bailout in Greek and also the financial regulations in US. As we know the Dollar is trading at high so all these problems are not the major one among the traders. Yesterday trading of Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar was weighs down by 2 percent and also there is a fall shown in the Sterling currency where as there is a carry out shown in the Japanese currency Yen.

Today the currency pair EUR/USD boosted out in the forex market because of the rumors in the US market getting support from the ECB. Since from the past year's low the pair drop down to 20 percent after the December high and in mid July it drops to 22 percent low. Now we are experiencing the a demand of additional gain in the Forex market because of the drop down of Dollar in the US market in the past 2008. The federal government only needs approach that will benefit the market is to sell the USD and not to ban their short sales. It is predicted about the US economy that it will become better in the year 2010 suggested by the Conference Board LEI data. The US economy unexpectedly slips down to 0.1 percent in April month after getting revised of 1.3 percent in the month of March.

The Europe economy is facing downside since the past year's fall down of euro. The euro zone countries are going through the tough days of the economy but there is bright sunshine is seen in this week as the currency pair EUR/USD goes high because of the news that the EURO will receive a great help from the ECB government. But, the investors is still in doubt because of the failure of the Stabilization fund that has been announced to provide favor to the EURO currency. Germany prices grew more in April as expected to 0.8 percent. This has been recognized as the third advance as in the march month it was only reaches to 0.7 percent. It is also seen that the UK retail sales incremented for the third time in past three months including April. The retail sale price seasonally noted that was up in April from 0.1 to 0.3 percent.

Now the Asia-Pacific Forex market impact as it is seen that the Japan's economy recovery was not raise this week as expected. GDP of Japan was about 4.9 percent recorded as it is low that forecast for the first quarter of the 2010 year. Since in fourth quarter of the past year the GDP recorded was up to 4.2 percent but it does not do well this year. As if we talk about the Australia's economy rate it was down at 3.6 percent in the month of May than in April as it was recorded to 4.1 percent at that time. This uncertainty is due to the euro zone events that does not provide any benefits to the Europe instead affects the Global economy recovery. This survey is done by the consumer inflationary of Melbourne Institute.

In Asia this week is not at all as good in terms of economy since the EURO is getting benefited from the past two days. This makes the currency pair of EUR/USD to hits high of 1.2671 from the low of 1.2150 points. The all euro currency pairs are showing good results after the upside trend of EURO in the Forex Trading chart. EUR/CHF reaches to 1.4585 by gaining 235 pips and EUR/JPY reaches the high of 114.35 points in a day where as 100 pips was gained by the currency pair EUR/GBP and reaches to a high of 0.8770 points. While Yen goes high against the equities and commodities that are going low along with the Nikkie reaches to 3 percent and touches the one point low in five months. These are all the latest updates about the Forex market of today in technical terms.

Export Growth Expedite the Economic Growth in Japan

2010-05-20T17:04:00.003+05:30

After the First World War the second largest economy of the world Japan faces the worst recession and now it is soon getting recovered by going on the right path to raise the economy from the first quarter of the current year. We all know that exports are the beam of the economy of the world. Due to the weak economic expansion the economy is facing the risk of deflation that threaten the recovery of Global world economic recovery.

In the first quarter of the year the Japan exports rises to 6.9 percent and this is the key reason of the economic recovery of the world's largest economic country Japan. Past three months the economic recovery of Japan boosted the wages and labor market that mainly contributing the recovery process.
Last year, the GDP growth of Japan is 0.9 percent calculated in Q4 and in this year in Q1 only the GDP growth leads to 1.2 percent in comparison to the past year recovery.

The market experts predicted the raise of 1.4 percent from the past year to this year but finally it was revised by 1 percent. If the total GDP growth be estimated it will be 4.9 percent in this year as compared from the past year it was only 3.9 percent. While the market analysts anticipates that GDP growth of this year leds to 5.5 percent.

Japanese exporters was mainly affected in past year by the manufacturing in China speed-up due to the high demand of exports from China leads to deficit of exports in Japan which ultimately hinders the economic recovery. Nissan, the Japan's largest automaker is affected majorly by the China's export growth, it triples the profit of Japan exports while the sales rise.

Today's report cherish the Government and also leads the exports demand from the BOJ that will ultimately throb the deflation rate in Japan. Report says that the consumer spending that is wages and labor market both leads to the fifty percent of the growth rate of Japan raise the 0.3 percent in the Q1 from the past year Q4. It is surveyed that from past 22 months it was the first time that the increment in wages are shown in Japan.

The economic recovery in Japan favor's the manufacturing companies that will result good in coming days, that is Nissan group is making plans to spend the major part of its capital into buying the new technology equipments for leading the footstep with this world. This will rose the job openings and more number of people will be engaged in working that ultimately raises the demand for goods, provides relief to the economic condition of Japan.

The BOJ had decided to fix the interest rate to 0.1 percent that supports the policymakers to fight against the deflation rate. This will help in recovering from the Global world's economy because of the increase in demand of exports from Japan which leads to rebound of manufacturing companies in Japan.

Since the Japan's economy results less as estimated by the experts of the forex online market benefits the EUR/USD currency pairs trading and it reaches to high level of 91.78. It happens due to the failed export recovery along with the less consumer spending. BOJ is in pressure after the two days meeting to decrease the deflation rate in Japan. The Government continues in their expectations from BOJ to do something better in order to reduce the deflation rate but the BOJ is not willing to change its policies after seeing the GDP growth rate.

In terms of Technical analysis it is estimated that the GDP rate of Japan rises to 4.9 percent in past three months till March it was 4.2 percent and was expected to be 5.5 percent from the experts. There was a rise in consumer spending of 0.3 percent in first quarter of this year that was 1.7 percent in the past year's quarter four. There was a lead in housing investment is shown after the continuous five quarters of 0.3 percent. This was the first increment shown in the housing investment while in business investment the past rise was of 1.3 percent where as morning results shows gain of 1 percent. After getting all these results the BOJ holds a two day meeting to and also decided to keep the interest rate to only 0.1 percent and it may be expected to announce the leading plan in today's meeting.

Forex: German Short Sales bans for the welfare of Euro zone

2010-05-19T15:40:00.002+05:30

German Government had announced about the selling of short shares to the ten most important financial institution of the country. This can be seen as the hopeless way to protect the euro zone from the debt crisis from the erratic market attacks. DOW falls for - 100 points after the gain earned earlier. Gold seems to be rebound and now it is back trading at 1220 level above. Crude oil is trading against 70 point and reaches at low of 68.91. Dollar is on high and reached to level of 87. The currency pair EUR/USD is continuing on low of 1.2233 point.

Now technical analysis says that- EUR/USD fall below 1.2233 will ensure the decline leads to the 100 percent projection of 1.3691 to 1.2526 and next level predicted should be 1.1928. USD/CHF fall at 1.1447 and ensures rally resumption to the projection of 161.8 percent. AUD/USD also reaching to the the key support level of 0.8577 from the starting of this week. USD is at high position from the starting of the week at the level of 87 point and not it is heading towards the high of 2008 that is of 89.62.

Earlier it is seen that Forex market are trying to stabilize as EMU minister Olli Rehn announce that the countries that belongs to the euro zone debt crisis like Greece, Spain and Portuguese are only needed to have debt cuts in their budget and to maintain the Global economic growth. After getting 14.5 billion funds of EURO the Greek bond enact a rally for repaying the 8.5 billion of EURO bond that are dues.

There was a sharp fall is seen in German currency ZEW by rising at April and fall in May from 53.0 to 45.8 level. The fall also seen in euro zone ZEW drop down from 46 to 37.6 level. President of Germany says that there is seen some uncertainty at the rising of ZEW due the measures taking steps forward by combining the public budgets. The euro zone fall is also an important factor that has given rise to the uncertainty among major currency in forex market. The further development of EURO zone will lead also leads to the market uncertainty.

The latest news that has came from the US housing data is raising more than as expected and reaches to the high of 672k, the highest annualized rate since 2008 October level. As the USD is going high this leads the Forex market into the consolidate mode. The major Forex currency pairs are snugged but there is a high seen in the crude oil from 70 level to rise at 72 level and also the gold is touching the high level at 1210 points. Where as the US stocks opens in mild range in the morning and heading to reach at the strong level overnight.

UK latest update is that the inflation rate CPI jumped to the 3.7 percent as expected in April month and also it reaches at the highest in 17 month. RBA was considered in a pause state as the rate hikes in the May month and leads to the uncertainty in the euro zone area. The EU members discussed in the meeting about the disturbances seen in the forex online market is due to the sovereign debt rescue plan for the euro zone welfare. Australia market does not involve much in the direct impact of the Greece debt crisis. The Central bank of Australia has announced to give rise to the sixth time the policy interest rate. Aussie heads to a three month low after the pause rate hike in RBA.

The latest update of USD/JPY currency pair is that it reaches the level of 91.75 already. The currency is breaking of at the rate of 93.62 and then rising from the level of 88.25 after getting the resistance at 94.87 point. On the downside it can be said that if the level reaches below 90 then there will be a possibility of decline to 90.86 level. Market is trying to overcome from the financial trouble and hoping for some good results in coming days from the Forex market.

Forex:Market investors in Dilemma About Rescue Fund

2010-05-18T12:55:00.004+05:30

Last week's announcement of the Stabilization Fund leads the investors into the trouble. ECB has taken pledge for purchasing public as well as private bonds and also introduces various refinancing operations for providing benefits to the countries belongs to euro zone.

Market experts are saying that the stabilization fund only provides a temporary relief to the economy of euro zone. The cure is not the permanent, this news leds the market investors into the dilemma. Since majority of the market aspirants does not believe these auctions are beneficial for solving the fiscal
problems.

The Germany is the major contributor in the stabilization fund but the EU members of the other nation that has given their support is not happy because they are worried about the austerity plans that the government had announced for improving the fiscal health of the countries.

The austerity plans mainly affects the economic recovery which leads to the fall of EURO currency below the 2008 low. The EURO currency falls to 18 months low,now it is at 1.2333 points. The fall of EURO makes the USD demand higher among the currency investors of Forex market.

The euro zone countries that are going through debt crisis after the announcement of stabilization fund had formally announces about the austerity plans to reduce the fiscal deficits. These countries are Spain, Portuguese and Italy, since Greece also belongs to this category but it's announcement is now in holding state.

However, after this announcement there is a slow down seen in the economic recovery in both the euro zone countries along with the whole world. Government has bought 20 billion EURO for providing short-dated bonds to euro zone countries are Greece, Spain and Portuguese.

Now the report on currency pairs how the rescue fund has affected the currency pair. The first shocking news is about the EURO as it falls to the 4 year low and reaches to 1.2334 point. Today's opening of Forex session is at 1,2433 resistance intact. It is predicted that the EUR/USD pair can be further goes to
decline because of the continuous fall of EURO currency. it can be said about the market of EUR/USD currency pair that the break of 1.2329 subsides confirms about the rebound of 2008 fall in currency pair.

The recovery is seen in the GBP/USD after the Yesterday's fall by touching the low of 1.4250 in the opening market. It is predicted about the GBP/USD currency pair that it can get benefited by the US dollars high. GBPUSD currently is in position of 1.44488 to 1.53010. It is noticed that the currency pair rose to 1.7043 from corrective rise to1.3503 and then falls from the 2007 high of
2.1161.

USD/JPY is currently on mildest downside and the further drop-down is expected from 90.85 to lower point. The upside in the currency pair is expected to be of 93.62 but it is limited to 94.97 high. It can be assumed to be one short-term drop-down in this currency pair. After breaking from 88.13 it is seen that there ts support given at this point can favor the rise of the USD/JPY currency pair. If the pair breaks down at 94.97 then it will confirm that the USD/JPY will be in bullish case.

USD/CHF is given minor support intact after the Friday sell-off. The currency pair USDCHF is at 1.1210 level and estimated to reach to the level of 1.1273 and the resistance line is at 1.1396 level. It is estimated that the support given at minor level can bring temporary top level along with consolidations. But if there is some pull off at the point above 1.0922 then there will be a risk resumption.

There is drop down is seen at the AUDCAD currency pair is shown at the level of 0.8723. The overall fall will confirm that the currency will get medium-term support at point 0.8557.

These all are the market updates of today's overall currency pair and affect of market stabilization fund on the currency pairs of the Forex market.

Forex: Major Currencies are heading to Low of 2008

2010-05-17T12:20:00.002+05:30

EU/ECB's announced to cut the budgeting costs benefits the EURO in last week along with the approval of Greece rescue fund, but the gain in USD impacts the EURO and this makes the EURO fall against the major currencies of Forex market along with the USD. The currency pair of EUR/USD falls to 1.2352 just an inch above the low of 2008 that is of 1.2329. After the approval of Greece aid-package, there are some easiness is seen in the euro zone on temporary basis but it is not permanent because of number of other major concerns related to the development in euro zone. In the end of last week there is some benefits are seen in the market, that is the Gold makes a record of 1,2497 of high and on the other hand USD also managed the benefits by touching the high level. In risky assets, the crude oil drops and other major stocks hits a high.

EuRO zone is surrounded by number of major concern issues. They are: Firstly it is been heard that unless Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor do not agree upon the EU bailout plan the French President Sarkozy will not do any favor for the EURO currency and it will continue to be shattered down. The second major issue is that the euro zone countries Spain and Portuguese had announced last week that they will implement the austerity plan and workout on that, but the euro zone is unable to make improvements in their fiscal health.

The third important issue is if the euro zone countries or other will implement the austerity plans then it will mainly affect the EURO currency and also drags down the economic recovery. The last concern is about the bank that if it will not implement the quantitative easing then the market still not get benefited and it also makes the euro drop-down. It is predicted that all the major outcomes from the euro currency is negative as it is the common currency among the major currency pairs in the Forex online market.

As per the last week's Forex session the major outcomes in stocks is seen as FTSE 100 up 139 points, DOW up 240 points and Nikkie up 98 points in the overall week. It seems that after the Friday's sell off the market is in the intra-week high position. After the fall started in April there is a decline noticed in terms of Global equities. There is some weakness shown in the crude oil favors the Gold and Dollar in the past week by making it reaching to high position. These all things makes the EURO currency fall down along with commodity currencies.

Easy-going BoE makes the Sterling currency drops down last week, this is also due to the impact of some UK political uncertainty snugged at some clear situation. Economy remains uncertain is due to some major factors that is impact of debt crisis in euro zone and risk aversion in economic recovery- said by the King (UK).

Because of getting support from the June hike the Canadian Dollar was one of the strongest commodity currency, Aussie also rebounds because of getting support by the employment report where as Kiwi remains static although the market gets disappointed by the retail sales department. But, on Friday it is seen that after the sell-off in the Forex market the Canadian dollar becomes the biggest loser. These all things certainly affects rate hike of Boc and will lead the global equity in down position.

Now a quick overview of the overall Forex market of last week is the Dollar gets strengthened and reaches a high of 86.28 finally. The crude oil lowers down to 70.32 point. This makes the EURO currency weaker and it drop down to just one level above the past year low of 1.2329. Last week the currency pair of EUR/AUD touches the low of 1.3927 and makes a new record of low points. We are assuming that in this week some important levels could be achieved. As the report says in this week the major focus will on the news from US that it will suggest another dip in real estates market and from UK we are waiting for the news on BoE minutes and BOJ will remain static in this week.

Impact of this Week's Forex Market on Next Week's Forex Session

2010-05-15T16:43:00.001+05:30

Although, the outlook for the US Dollar index remains bullish this week instead it is expected from dollar that it will attract the investors in the next week's Forex session. This is because the investors loose their confidence on the currency pair of USDGBP. This comes as the favor to the dollar for the next Forex opening session said by the market experts.

In the recent week it is seen that the economic data is playing mess with the euro and it is assumed that it will remain in loss in the opening market of the coming week. Where as GBP may be on rimple in the next week's opening because of the CPI data and April retail sales since there is a pressure of equities high correlation continues on GBP and there is neither an opening path for the GBP from the grab of Sterling which is the bullish currency of this week.

Now a quick overview of the Forex online market currencies ups and down of this week. The G10 currencies Vs GBP position,shows some establishment in the market due to the positive reaction given by government on the Greece aid-package matter but not Vs euro currency. There is a fall shown by USDGBP below 1.45. The currency pair of USDJPY shows a high this week and were the best performers of the week in the G10. The major currency of the Forex market that is EUR/USD falls below 1.25 and expected this week to touch the low of 1.234 that is the low of October 2008.

US prime mortgages along with subside commodity prices will make the equities to resume their decline and makes the USD and JPY the best performing currencies of the recent week. Economic data remains in the sideshow in the market that is BoE makes the interest rate of Banks to be snugged at 0.50 percent and APF continues to EURO 200 bin. The government announced the cutting of budget this recent week threatens the people and therefore the inflation quarterly report warns the investors about the downside risks can show upgrades in the market.

Now about the market outlook of the recent week, the reports says that- in this risk averse moment in the Forex market the USDJPY shows the best performance. US Dollars are continuously attracting the buyers in the recent week because of the fall of EUR/GBP. British pound and sterling has shown the fall this week which ultimately favors the USD growth. It is expected in the next term that because of the rise in US dollar and subside oil prices will in turns makes the consumer prices low down.

The USD shows a safe flow in the economy chart reaches to the 86.0 level, although there is a strong support is given by the overseas interest rate of US refunding embedded high demands for the dollars. This also helps the market in viewing their medium-term approach may be reach to the high of 89.6 high of the March 2009. The snugged resistance is shown at 86.76 in the USD.

EUR currency remains in their downtrend this week regardless of the Greece aid-package details that favors to the debt crisis facing countries belong to the euro zone are Greek, Spain and Portuguese. The austerity package finally gets the approval this week which in turn provides a flip in single currency and equities. EUR/USD currency pair has showed on and off this week and were supposed to touch low of 1.234.

This week is beneficial for the currency pair of USD/GBP because of the UK elections, this helps the pair to reach high of 0.8620. The BoE not make any favor for the GBP against other currencies in G10, it only creates a resistance line for the euro currency so that it can snugged to the place where it is.

There will be a relief expected in the next week's forex session because of the three major targets that is maturing of Greek 10y debt package, Ecofin meeting along with the buying of ECB bonds. For the investors, it is only be said that "When there is a will, there is a way". Hope for well!!!

EURO Steadied 14-Months Subside Vs US Dollar

2010-05-14T17:52:00.002+05:30

EURO falls down by 0.1 percent against the US dollar at the rate of $ 1.2604. In early times it hits at $ 1.2563, the smallest range in the week and almost half a percent than the previous week's 14 month subside of $ 1.2520.

European stocks gains makes the euro fell by 0.6 percent against Yen. According to the report given by EBS the euro is one of the single currency that goes subsides against 1.3997 Swiss francs. Experts are saying that the global factors will dominate the currency pair EUR/USD, despite the fact that Reserve bank Of Australia have announced that it is increasing the interest rate for showing worries over the outlook of inflation and a clench over the labor market. It is expected from the RBA to halt on their diversion for the coming next few months.

US Dollars shows an upgrading of 0.1 percent against the world's major currencies. Although it fells against the Yen by 0.4 percent. Sterling was the strong currency of the last week, but it surprisingly falls against the dollar by 0.3 percent in this mid of week. On Friday the euro snugged near 14 month subsides Vs US dollar make the investors onto worries because already their are ups and downs in the Forex currency market. the poor performance currency of the market this year is euro. The investors are so much worried about the fiscal outlook of euro zone that is hampering the growth of the Europe. European Monetary ministers are trying their best to overcome the recessionary condition, the government is putting efforts in cutting their fiscal spending. Regardless of these facts, the investors are still wondering how long these efforts will sustain.

Market Experts are given their view about the euro currency trading that if the euro currency breaks below the range of $1.25, then halt the loss selling otherwise it will reach upto the $ 1.2330, it is the lowest range of the year 2008. EUR/JPY currency reaches up to the 116.50 Yen after touching the low of 116 Yen below in the Asian trade market. Traders of the Forex market are saying that the euro gains are limited and it partly depends upon the Japanese Yen that is giving support to the euro zone countries. The world's second bond fund that is known as Kokusai Asset Management's Global Sovereign Fund is ready to support the euro by cutting its exposure to 4.8 percent points, although if the euro zone financial crisis continues to their low then the percentage will be 29.6 percent as it is estimated by the market experts at the end of May 2010.

USD/JPY stood at 92.90 Yen, it is seen that it goes up by 0.2 percent from the late New York trade in the Forex market. Where as the USD/GBP goes up by 0.1 percent since Sterling currency is static after a day loss because of the impact of Britain's public finances which undetermines it. On Thursday the market gots a hit of UK trade deficit that is seen high up to more than expected.

Reports from forex trading platform as usual comprises of sliding motion, so traders need to be little more cautious because even though policy makers and officials had tried from head to toe but yet the debt issues do not seem to cease at this level.

Lets have technical viewpoint about the currency pair of USD/JPY trading at the level of 92.54 that opened at the session with 92.79 surging high with the 93.55 level and the lower trade level of 92.49 and the forex online session closed at the trade level of 92.73.

USD/JPY made to swelled up high at yesterday’s trade session but later snipped down and started trading descending because of the sentiments of the Interbank that reached closer to -32%. On Thursday, the currency pair of USD/JPY declined from the level of 93.55 to 92.59 and closed the trade session at 92.73.

With no influential events in today’s trading session at Japan, so JPY is having the trading range in between 92.51 to 92.00 having down-trending at the trading platform.

Trade Deficit Bangs Market by reaching to 15-Month Eminent

2010-05-13T17:49:00.003+05:30

The Global economy recovery has boosted the business of exports and imports. It reaches to the highest level since October 2009. The survey is done by the Commerce Department and had given their report on Wednesday. The report acknowledges that the trade market reaches to their top level and touches the 15- month high. The economic recovery exaggerated the demand of exports. US economist Zach Pandl of Nomura Securities in New York has specified the reinforcement of the growth in trade volume.

The Commerce Department said that- the higher oil prices increases the exports since October 2009. The enhancement in imports was led by 25.5 percent whereas exports rose to 3.2 percent to $147.9 billion. It is seen that the rise in both exports and imports was stronger than expected by the government in the Q1 GDP published last month. Pandl said that- the assumptions can be good than expected, now its time for expecting a moderate rise in Q1 GDP from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent.

Forex online market is still competing off the report because of the debt crisis in Greece. The Euro is one of the poor performing currency in this whole year. As the news comes that the Spain is taking austerity measures in cutting its budget, the rise is seen in US stocks. But as soon as the treasury debt prices falls the EURO climbs against the US Dollar. Analysts are expecting only a small growth on US export due to the slow recovery of the euro zone countries facing the financial trouble. The chief economist at Unicredit Research in New York, Harm Bandholz said that- the direct impact of EURO currency hurts the US export growth rate.

The imports are also hits high since October 2009. The combined imports of services and foreign goods rose to 3.1 percent to $188 billion around. The price of oil reaches to an average of $ 75 per barrel, it is the highest price in 15-months.

In March 2010, the recent research shows that the US exports and imports increased to $ 147.9 billion from 3.2 percent. While the exports of US goods winds up to $102.7 billion. An economist of New York Anna Piretti said that- the growth of import will continue as it is getting support from by going forward, strong production and high consumer demand.

In this year, US deficit is moving at an annual rate of $ 467 billion. It is 23.4 percent higher than the last year's annual report of $ 378 billion. Economists are saying that there is a rapid increase had shown from past year in terms of exports and imports because of the economic recovery in the Forex Trading market. The Mortgage Bankers Association showed that there is a high demand for home refinancing loans because the interest rate had reaches their lowest level.

The economy area weakens due to the financial trouble in euro zone and the European Central Bank is unable to rose its rate of interest for the coming months. "A weaker Euro suits to the weaker economy". The euro chart is showing the negative graph due to this reason there are small group of traders who believe that euro will rise. Yuichiro Harada, a senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank said that- fundamentals of the economic region's justifies the weaker euro state. The only rise in Euro is seen on Wednesday from $1.2667 to $1.2629 in New York.

The EURO is showing some rise against the US Dollars but still in the downtrend showing in the Forex chart. The economy boosted the demand of foreign goods and services. This leds the trade market to hits the high of 15-months. The 20 percent of US merchandise exports are gone to the European Union from the last 12 months. The countries getting the export from the US merchandise are Netherlands, France, Belgium and the countries not getting are Greece, Portugal or Spain. Hence,the experts of market is saying that- the impact of euro debt crisis leads to trouble US exports.

Investors expectation surging, market responses have some other plans

2010-05-12T18:27:00.002+05:30

"A man could bring the horse to the water, but he cannot make him drink"- same is the case with the Greece crisis. The European Monetary Union Ministers are providing support to the Greece by offering the rescue package but it is only a temporary relief.

The actual work of raising the economy can only possibly be done by Greece Government itself. They have to make better financial plans from before, it needs a lot of effort to be put in making workable plans.

Market aspirants are very much concerned about the fiscal outlook for Europe. The EURO rebounds from Monday's high at $ 1.31 from the falling point below $ 1.27. The investors remains worried about whether weaker EURO economy can provide cost cuttings and increase in tax payments to manage their fiscal houses in order.

Market investors are still expecting a high of touching $ 1.15 by the Q3 from the EURO regardless of the last week's fall of EURO to $ 1.2510. It is still down by 0.4 percent after trading at $ 1.2732 in the forex online market.

The major currency that stands out against the US session was Sterling. The Euro fells around 1.2 percent to 85.05 against the sterling. The US Dollar touches a high of 0.3 percent to 92.99 against YEN. The Euro shows a fall of 0.7 percent against the 118.45 YEN.

The chief Forex strategist Shaun Osborne said that- the rescue aid package to Greece is just a way of delaying the inevitable not the cure to the disease. The currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, Mike Moran had presented their opinion about the fiscal outlook of Europe. He also specifies clearly about the near term outlook that is one of the ephectic term for the EURO currency.

The market focus shifts back to the debt problem of Greece and the halted aid package in euro zone. It may be assumed that the debt problem may increase in recent weeks since, the investors are focusing their attention towards the currency borrowing for other countries facing same problem such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland.

Forex trends coiffure after yesterday’s EU statement

2010-05-11T14:32:00.003+05:30

Overall, the forex online market would likely to have a mixed trend reaction with Asian market still displaying green signal for investors to sell off their investment and earn the profits as market has moved to such a bounce after experiencing the decline in the trends for more than a week.

The currency pair of EUR/USD had shown decline of 0.51% with 1.27 22/24 trading range having highs at 1.2803 and lows at 1.2703, even though yesterday’s announcement of package displayed a sharp bounce in the EUR trades and hopes are at peak today’s session opening crashed out.

At international market inflation rate in China has engorged up on the exceeding of bank lending rates whereas the property prices had a record soar puffing up the government neck to raise the rates of interest so that currency can experience admirable trades.

Chinese officials need to think about the increasing inflationary force and should take care to put off the excessive profits and hiking up of prices under control and because due to the aid package announcement from Europe further slouch at forex trading platform would not take place in recent times. The increment in the property prices put false the speculation of the experts about the financial status in the last month.

Coming back to the currency pair of GBP/USD same negative trend with -0.31% decline having traded at 1.48 08/10 trade range having highs of 1.48742 and lows of 1.4772. Seeing the trade ranges and the moves of the market there is nothing-satisfactory conclusion to arrive at for deciding the further trade decisions.

Other pair of USD/JPY is trading with slightly bearish trend and trading at 92 level with deviations of around 92.72/73 having the difference of -0.66% trade and the highs at 93.39 while the lows at 92.54.

Lastly, pair of USD/CHF taking break from the negative trending and is greening at the forex online market at the level of 1.11 06/09 and 0.08% having the highs of 1.113 and the lows of 1.107 and trending with slightly bearish trends.

Lets see what else today’s forex trading platform has in its bag for the investors, whether their speculation would hold true or once again get fell down at the floor.

Forex today picking up heights on ECB and EU announcement

2010-05-10T17:39:00.003+05:30

Today the sun has risen from opposite direction, its not funny, really this is because of the surprise shot of EU and ECB and their plans that have rushed the forex online market with the crowd of traders due to observing extremely higher moved up trends in EUR and the Asian market also surged up with flying colors.

Market trends signaling green to show that trends are moving higher and traders will surely redeem their investment that is time to sell off. EU policy makers sudden turned up attitude swerved up market of EUR in this morning.

The breeze of positive reaction blows all across the global Forex market and this is alluring to have some settle down of trades at EUR protecting the short-term trend. Although trends are moving in positive direction but it will take some more time to recuperate integrity at the forex trading platform.

In order to deal with the loosing consumer confidence and increasing crisis over the market at the weekend Fed, EU authorities and ECB combined took a strong decision that shook the entire currency pair market and forex session opening came up over with great precision at the pairs.
All this due to announcement of 750bln funding package allotment by EU and ECB promise to buy the government bonds at the market relieved the tensed market sentiments within a shot span of time.

Standard and Poor Index futures gathered at 4.1 percent while EUR cherished with 2.3 percent to share the incline of $1.3046. The victory of South Korea further drove the currency by 2% in front of USD whereas the protection cost of Asian bonds fell down once again while crude oil prices inclined higher at 3.8%.

This attempt of EU zone and approval of such a lump-sum aid package to soothe out the mushrooming debt crisis of sovereign that have sprouted in Greece but is threatening the other part of the forex market and their attempt put an end to the spreading of debts to other financial market.

US equities didn’t showed any positive response over this news and threw again for the fourth consecutive forex session on Friday. There is no exaggeration in saying that EU attempt of stabilizing the situation of market troubles and ceasing the crisis from spreading is appreciable.

The currency pair of EUR/USD is the only pair that have displayed some rise after intra-day trading session up to 1.2968 signifying miniature consolidation would likely to be observed along with the signs of recoil to the level of 1.2900. However, with the improvement in the buying and selling off the interests should come up, stay at the minor support level of 1.2809, and probably hold that position and stay at the minor support level of 1.2809 with the possibilities of additional rise.

The resistance would likely to expand from the last week’s trade lows level of 1.2510 to move towards the stronger recoiled level of current turn down towards 1.3000 but the trade didn’t achieved and finally stayed with 1.3038. According to the Fibonacci analysis, it is observed that the trade trends retraced from the level of 1.3365 to 1.2510 that would continue to hold from this level of trading.

The currency pair of GBP/USD is having short-term entry from the trade level of 92.50 and the target trade level at 90.80 and ceasing point of the trade is at 93.15.

Whereas USD managed to maintain the firm hold at the forex trading platform due to JPY’s winding down with upward trending risk is likely to test the resisting trends at 93.27/28. Nevertheless, there is a need to have a break in the trend that would signal the decline in the trading of the currency from the level 94.99 of the peak ended up at 87.95 in last week then again regained some pace in trading at 93.90 but changes would speed up or not this couldn’t be said now.

Overall, next forex session would undergo through vital trading session and there would be no precision in the trade of the market that could be affirmed for sometime lets see where the reaction of consumers and traders would probably rest that can be signaled from the lows and highs of market.

Riots, bombing killing humans and the economic measures lag

2010-05-06T16:29:00.004+05:30

The Euro tumbled to its weakest level against the U.S dollar in over a year amid growing concerns that Greece’s fiscal woes will spread to other indebted nations. The 16-nation currency hit a low of $1.27881 for the first time since March 2009 as Moody’s Investors Service placed Portugal’s Aa2 government bond ratings on review for another possible downgrade. In Greece, a nationwide general strike crippled the country, as protests against the government’s recently announced austerity measures turned violent, with a firebomb attack on a central Athens bank killing three people. The riots escalated as citizens of the debt-stricken nation halted flights and shut shops in a direct response Prime Minister George Papandreou’s plans to cut wages and pensions and raise taxes in return for a 110 billion- euro ($143 billion) rescue package. The Euro closed at $1.28126, down 1.17% from the day’s opening price and down 3.80% from the week’s opening price In the forex online market the EUR/JPY tumbled to a low of 119.935. The pair closed at 120.170, down 2.13% from the day’s opening. The Euro continued to fall against the Yen, touching on a low of 119.481 in this morning’s trading session.

President Jean- Claude Trichet will be fighting for the credibility of the ECB as well as the Euro today as he faces questions over the institution's decision to throw away collateral rules for Greek debt. On Tuesday, Trichet altered the rules for the second time in a month to guarantee the ECB will keep accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for loans even though they had been downgraded to junk status. This move comes in a direct contradiction to the declaration made earlier this year by Trichet that the central bank would not alter its collateral rules for the benefit of a single country.

According to economists the central bank may have to extend that to other nations, renew a program of lending unlimited cash to banks for a year, and even start buying government debt if the €110 billion- ($146 billion) bailout plan for Greece fails to stop the euro’s slide. The ECB decision raises tough questions that will make Trichet's monthly news conference "more than difficult," wrote economists at BNP Paribas.

Today, the ECB will announce its minimum bid rate decision – the central bank is expected to hold its key interest rate at its current record low level of 1.0%.

The Euro's weakness helped the dollar index hold on to its impressive gains this week. The index was up at 84.11, not far from a one-year high of 84.31 hit earlier in the session. The U.S Dollar got a boost from data showing U.S. private sector employers added 32,000 jobs last month, bolstering the view that U.S. interest rates will likely rise from record lows well before action on rates in the euro zone.

Companies in the U.S. added workers in April for a third month, according to data based on private payrolls. Data from the ADP Employer Service yesterday reported an increase of 32,000, following a revised 19,000 gain the prior month. The ADP figures were forecast to show a gain of 30,000 jobs. According to economists’ estimations, Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls are predicted to show another month of strong gains – 197K. Last month, the NFP finally re-entered positive territory and recorded an increase of 162K in the number of employed.

Service industries in the U.S. expanded in April at the same pace as the prior month, indicating factories will drive any pickup in the economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, held at an almost four-year high of 55.4 for a second month. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

Going into its election, the British currency traded near a nine- month high against the Euro, touching on 84.77 pence per euro yesterday afternoon. The GBP rose as the latest UK election polls pointed to a likely victory for the Conservative Party and in reaction to report of strong UK construction PMI and rising retail price inflation.

Improvement in diversified sectors of market is full on in major economies

2010-05-05T16:07:00.003+05:30

This afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released. Economists predict that the ADP will show that companies hired 29,000 workers last month, a substantial improvement over a 23,000 decline in March. This ADP figure is widely considered a predictive index for Friday’s high anticipated Non-Farm payrolls. Later in the US, The Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing PMI measuring the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry is expected to rise from 55.4 points to 56.2- another positive indicator for the U.S. market.

Yesterday, the U.S Dollar received a boost as reports showed an unexpected increase in both the housing and manufacturing sectors. A report, showing that more Americans signed contracts in March to buy previously owned homes before the expiration of a tax credit, has helped support the housing market. According the National Association of Realtors pending home sales increased an unexpected 5.3%, after rising 8.3% in February. The housing market, which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression, has received a boost from a tax incentive of as much as $8,000 for buyers who signed the contracts by the end of April. Job gains are needed to help sustain demand and limit foreclosures in the absence of government aid, broadening the economic recovery.

Meanwhile orders placed with U.S. factories unexpectedly rose in March, propelled by demand for business equipment and petroleum, signaling the economic expansion gained speed at the end of the first quarter. The 1.3% increase in bookings matched the prior month’s gain, which was more than twice as large as previously estimated, the Commerce Department yesterday. Sales rose 2.2%, the most since November 2007.

In The U.K. the pound strengthened against its most-active counterparts as polls show David Cameron’s Conservative Party may come closest to winning tomorrow’s election. Yesterday in the forex online market the GBP/USD hit $1.51047, its lowest level since March 31st. The pair lost 0.79% yesterday to close at 1.52472, but has managed to rebound in this morning’s trading session to touch on a high of 1.51640.

The U.K.'s manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15-and-a-half years in April, boosted by a record high level of new export orders due to continuing sterling weakness, data showed yesterday. Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply reported that the PMI for the manufacturing rose to 58.0 from March's revised 57.3. Later today, the Markit will release the construction PMI. Last month, the construction sector posted unexpected figure of 53.1 - a jump above the all-important 50 point mark. Analysts expected that this construction figure to stay constant, increasing slightly to 53.5.

In Australia, home-building approvals rose in March at the fastest pace since 2002, a sign that housing demand hasn’t been damped by the central bank’s world- leading round of interest-rate increases. According the Bureau of Statistics the number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments rose 15.3 %from February, when it previously dropped a revised 2.7%.
Yesterday, the RBA opted to increase the benchmark lending rate for the sixth time in seven meetings, pushing borrowing costs to what Governor Glenn Stevens referred to as “average” levels. The moves are partly aimed at preventing a property bubble after housing prices surged 20% in the 12 months through March. According to economists, this report is encouraging as it is a leading indicator for employment, particularly for workers in the construction industry.
After plunging 1.88% against the greenback yesterday, to close at 0.90930USD, the Aussie rose slightly this morning, toughing on a high of 0.91167USD.

Mounting US Consumer spending, good sign of trade mending

2010-05-04T16:48:00.001+05:30

The U.S Dollar rose against the Euro and Yen yesterday on growth in U.S. manufacturing and doubts about Greece's ability to honor a pledge for further austerity measures in return for an aid package.

The Euro continued to fall against the U.S Dollar yesterday as longer term concern over the Euro-Zone sovereign debt contrasted with solid U.S economic data. The U.S data, which showed a strong reading in manufacturing and construction spending, illustrate a U.S economy that continues to drag itself out of the worst recession since the Great Depression. This compares with the Euro Zone where investors remain worried about the implementation of the unprecedented €110billion aid package for Greece. In the forex online market the EUR/USD closed at 1.31974 yesterday, after hitting a low of 1.31530.

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in April at its fastest pace in almost six years and at a rate that was above expectations, according to an industry report released Monday. The Institute for Supply Management’s said its index of national factory activity rose to 60.4 in April from 59.6 a month earlier. The data represents a ninth straight month of gains, with the headline index at its highest since June 2004.

The U.S Dollar hit an 8-1/2 month high against the Yen as U.S. manufacturing data boosted optimism about the economic recovery. Following the release of the report, the USD/JPY struck a high of 94.774, up 0.82% from yesterday’s opening price. Strong U.S. data has increased expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year, while the Bank of Japan is seen keeping rates low indefinitely. The USD continued to appreciate against the Japanese currency this morning as signs the global economic recovery is gaining momentum damped demand for Yen as a refuge. The USD/JPY rose to a trading high of 94.970, up 0.30% from today’s opening price of 94.689.

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in March by the most in six months, pointing to a recovery that may accelerate when the economy creates more jobs. Boosted by spending on autos and other durable goods, real U.S. consumer spending increased 0.6% to reach a record high level in March, at last surpassing the pre-recession peak set in November 2007, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. With spending growing much faster than incomes in March, the personal savings rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest since September 2008.

Multi-billion aid pack deal finalized by Greece

2010-05-03T17:00:00.002+05:30

The Euro fell from a one-week high against the U.S Dollar on concern that the €110 billion-euro ($146 billion) bailout package for Greece will fail to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. The single European currency declined for the first time in four days against the U.S Dollar and Japanese Yen as EU leaders prepare to meet on May 7th to discuss the timeline of the parliamentary approval for loans to Greece, and as Germany plans to debate the plan on the same day. In the Asian forex online trading session this morning, the Euro dropped to $1.32047 from $1.32934 on Friday’s close, and down as much as 1.12% from yesterday’s high of $1.33595. The EUR/JPY struck a low of 123.977, down 1.17% from yesterday’s high of 125.450, and down 0.63% from Friday’s close.

Yesterday, Greek officials finalized a deal with the European Union and the IMF that will give Greece access to a muti-billion euro financial bailout. Greek officials agreed to budget cuts worth €30 billion ($40 billion), on top of measures already agreed and aimed at reducing the nation’s colossal budget deficit. The aid package, expected to total up to €110 over three years, represents the first rescue of a member of the 16-nation euro zone. On Sunday, the finance ministers of 16-euro nations agreed that the 15 other countries would lend €80 billion over three years. The IMF will, in parallel, offer a €30 billion package.

The Euro dropped for a fifth month versus the greenback in April, the longest stretch of losses since November 2008 as fear escalated that Europe’s deficit crisis would spread. Last week, the 16-nation Euro touched $1.311531, the lowest level since April 2009, when Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating was cut from AA+ to AA, a sign that the debt crisis is spreading. It fell below $1.32 the previous day for the first time in a year after S&P sliced Greece’s credit rating to junk and lowered Portugal’s to the third-lowest investment grade.

In the United States, a report showing the economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter had little impact on the greenback. Despite the below-forecast headline number, analysts said the GDP report shows signs of an improving economy. On Friday, the Advance GDP showed that the economy expanded by 3.2%, slightly slower than the predicted 3.4%, and significantly smaller than the 5.6% growth seen in the last quarter of 2009. On Friday, the USD/JPY hit a high of 94.569, before settling back down to close the week at 93.837, 0.17% below its opening price. The USD was up against the British Pound, closing the week at $1.52584, up 0.55% from the day’s opening price.

Forex:Deals affirmed but are conditional as based on market consolidation

2010-04-30T13:27:00.004+05:30

The euro rose on Thursday, rebounding from a one-year low the previous day on hopes a bail-out plan for debt-stricken Greece would be finalized soon. Gains were limited, however, as details of the Greece package were thin, leaving uncertainties about the timing and implementation of any deal.

Germany's largest opposition party said it would move quickly to approve German participation, while European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the European Union should complete talks "within days”. However, Rehn said he still could not provide details of the deal, which he said were "conditional on fiscal consolidation."

Mr. Rehns speech he emphasis on “a multi annual program” has helped provide comfort to markets amid fears that the initial plan for a 45 billion euro package would only help meet Greece's borrowing needs through the current year. IMF officials have reportedly indicated the package could total between €100 billion to €120 billion.

Greek and other peripheral Euro-Zone bond markets rebounded amid the comments and also took relief from a well-received auction of Italian government debt, the first test of the credit markets by a southern euro-zone country since this week's downgrades of credit ratings for Greece, Portugal and Spain.

The International Monetary Fund and European Union are pressing Greece to take extra austerity measures that could yield more than €20 billion a year as a precondition for financial assistance. These new austerity terms, which could range from pension overhauls to wage cuts, come at the end of two weeks of talks between the visiting IMF negotiator, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. The IMF and the EU have said that they hope to reach an agreement with Greece on its budget deficit by the weekend, in order to pave the way for financial assistance for the debt-stricken nation.

During the European trading session in the forex online market, the EUR rose 0.4% against the USD to hit a high of $1.327771. It was comfortably above a one-year low of $1.311231 it hit on Wednesday after Standard & Poor's cut Spain's credit rating by one notch, a day after downgrades to both Greece and Portugal. The Euro closed at $1.32632, up 0.40% from its opening price of $1.32105.

Yesterday report showing that European confidence in the economic outlook improved to its highest level in two years as well as German unemployment fell signaling that the euro-area recovery is strengthening even as Greece’s fiscal crisis spreads across the region.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations rose to 100.6 in April from a revised 97.9 in March, the European Commission in Brussels said yesterday; while in Germany, Germany's unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in April from 8.0% in March, exceeding market expectations that it would not be able to repeat last month’s move. The net change in unemployment for Germany was -68,000 in April, versus an expected -11,000 – marking the largest drop since February 2008. Germany’s unemployment levels are now at their lowest levels since January 2009.

Portugal and Greece added the risk aversion due to downgrading

2010-04-29T14:23:00.004+05:30

The Euro hit a new 12 month intraday low yesterday after Standard & Poor’s downgraded its debt rating on Spain, compounding sovereign debt fears just as a resolution to Greece’s aid package seemed imminent.

The Euro traded at as low as $1.51240 as concern that Europe’s deficit crisis may widen damped the appeal of assets in the 16-nation region. A cut to Spain’s credit rating yesterday, coming after downgrades this week to Portugal and Greece exasperated fears that the Euro Zones debt crisis is spreading. Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating to AA from AA+ and said the outlook on the country’s debt is negative. This move comes just two days after the rating agency sliced Greece’s borrowings to junk and reduced Portugal’s to the third-lowest investment grade. The extra yield investors demand to hold Spain’s 10-year debt rather than German equivalents widened to 112.5 basis points this week, the most in more than a year.

Europe’s single currency fell for the third time in four days against the greenback after the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook report that the “main risk scenario” from Greece’s debt crisis is “one of worsening global risk aversion, should the jitters spill over to some of the larger European economies.” Moreover, as concerns about a domino effect spread officials said a joint IMF EU rescue package could now total up to €120billion ($150 billion) over three years – nearly three times the amount recently pledged – as the IMF urged reluctant German lawmakers to move quickly in approving support for immediate financial aid.

Investors are abandoning the euro at a rate not seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as Europe’s worsening fiscal crisis threatens to splinter the 16-nation currency union. After reaching a new 12-month low against the USD, the Euro managed to recover slightly in the North American trading session to close at $1.52003, down 0.29% from its opening price.
This morning, Germany will release its latest figures for the unemployment change. A significant drop in the number of unemployed people was reported last month – 31,000. Economists are optimistic this time, and predict another drop of 11,000. A better than expected number could provide some stabilizing relief for the falling Euro.

Britain’s currency, also affected as by news of the Spanish downgrade, tumbled to a low of $1.51240 yesterday. The GBP/USD recovered slightly to close at $1.52443, down 0.29% from its opening price in the forex online market. This morning, a report by the Nationwide Building Society showed that housing prices in U.K rose by 1.0% in April from March. According to Nationwide data, this marks the second consecutive monthly rise of 1.0% rise, leaves house prices up by 10.5% on an annual basis.

Forex News: Greece Debt crisis extends upto Portugal

2010-04-28T16:28:00.005+05:30

Greece’s debt crisis spread to Portugal after a pair of ratings downgrades on the two countries spooked investors, fueling a sell-off in markets across the globe while shattering Europe’s hopes on containing the crisis.

Greece became the first Euro Zone nation to have its credit rating reduced to “junk” by Standard & Poor’s, a move that will make now nearly impossible for Greece to borrow, dashing any remaining hopes of the debt-stricken nation’s recovery. Portugal, who like Greece is struggling to rein in its budget deficit, suffered a two notch downgrade. While this downgrade left its investment-grade intact, it severally raised concerns about the country’s possible tragic fate.

Following the news the Euro plunged a one year low against the U.S Dollar. The single currency fell 1.94% from its opening price of $1.34028, to hit $1.31429 in the forex online market.

News of the downgrades comes as investors were already concerned that the €45billion joint EU-IMF aid package would be delayed by an internal political struggle in Germany. Earlier this week, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reports that there will be no decision on aid for Greece until the International Monetary Fund works out a plan of cuts with the government in Athens. Merkel went on to say that Germany will assist Greece only after it agrees to take “tough” measures.

The Euro experienced losses across the board as fears that the Greece’s crisis had begun to spread to Portugal swept across the globe. The European currency approached a five week low against the Japanese Yen, falling 2.78% from its opening price of 125.847¥/€ to hit a low of 122.350¥/€.

The euro rebounded from a one-year low against the dollar on speculation the International Monetary Fund will provide more aid to Greece, easing concern the nation’s debt woes will spread through the region. The 16-nation common currency rose to $1.32164 in Asian sessions this morning, up 0.35% from yesterday’s close of $1.31709, after the Financial Times reported the International Monetary Fund may increase its financial assistance to Greece by €10 billion from the current €15 billion, citing unidentified bankers and officials in Washington.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn will brief German parliamentary leaders in Berlin around noon today about aid for Greece, which has met with opposition in Europe’s biggest economy. The joint EU-IMF package would require Germany to provide the biggest individual loan to Greece.

A flare up of financial turmoil in Europe, caused by concerns that Greece and Portugal might default on debt, should reinforce the Fed's reluctance to close out a two-day meeting with any sign that might suggest U.S. monetary policy could soon be tightened. Later today, the U.S Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision concerning the interest rates (1915GMT).

The Fed cut benchmark overnight rates to near zero in December 2008 and in March last year promised "exceptionally low" rates for "an extended period," a vow it has renewed at every meeting since that one. While the world's biggest economy is crawling out of its deepest recession in decades, Fed officials have said the recovery remains wobbly and they have warned that the jobless rate is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a long time. Analysts predict that the Fed will opt to hold interests rates near zero.

Home prices in the U.S dipped for the fifth-straight month in February as many markets remained under pressure from foreclosures and high inventories. Meanwhile consumer confidence rose in April to its highest level since the financial struck in September 2008.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Index tracking home prices rose across 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.9% during the month of January as all but one city, San Diego, posted declines. Compared to a year earlier however, home prices rose nationwide for the first time since December 2006. Home prices in February were 30% below the peak reached in July 2006, indicating the industry that helped trigger the worst recession since the 1930s will take years to recover lost ground. A pickup in employment is needed to help stem the damage from mounting foreclosures that are restraining further gains in property values.

Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in April to the highest level since September 2008 as Americans became more upbeat about jobs, another report yesterday showed. The Conference Board’s index rose more than forecast, to 57.9 from 52.3 in March, according to the New York-based private research group. Consumer’s current assessment of the economy improved, while their expectations for the months ahead rose remarkably.

Merkel need to see Greece tough measures to deal with deficit

2010-04-27T16:29:00.005+05:30

The Euro slipped against all its major currency counterparts yesterday as uncertainty intensified over how and when Greece would get financial aid sought last week to avert a potential sovereign debt default. The spread between Greek and German 10-year government bond yields hit a new 12-year high of 679 basis points on Monday, indicating market concern over the implementation of the aid package and the conditions attached to it.

Comments from Germany, potentially the biggest contributor to any aid package, helped keep markets nervous after Greece on Friday requested an aid package drawn up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund be implemented. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Germany was aiming to free up financial support for Greece before a May 19 deadline, but the opposition Social Democrats said they would not back an accelerated parliamentary process to approve the aid.

The single European currency retreated from the highest level in more than a week against the Japanese Yen on concern that the joint EU-IMF €45billion rescue package won’t be enough to stop the deficit crisis from spreading. After hitting 126.298 Yen, its highest price since April 16th, the Euro slipped to 125.042 Yen. The EUR/JPY closed at 125.842, down 0.13% from the day’s open.

The Euro’s losses extended across the board as it neared a three month low against the British Pound after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that she won’t release any emergency funds for Greece until the nation has a “sustainable” plan to reduce its shortfall. After plunging to a low of 0.86016, the EUR/GBP recovered to close at 0.86620, down 0.27% from the day’s opening price.

After hitting a daily low of $1.32901, the Euro recovered against the greenback to close yesterday at $1.34026, up 0.35% from its opening of $1.33561. However, in the Asian trading session this morning, the single European currency slid to hit a low of $1.33557.

The European Central Bank President Trichet will speak on multiple occasions this week, mostly while on his trip to the United States. Any comments about the Greek debt crisis or the state of the economies will shake the Euro. He will speak later today at a conference in Chicago (13:15 GMT) and later this evening (2315GMT) at the Kellog School of Management in Evanston. Trichet returns to Europe and will deliver a speech in Munich this Thursday.

In early trading yesterday, the British Pound extended its rally from late Friday after slipping to a four-day low versus the US Dollar of $1.52938 in the forex online market. Last week’s volatile trading session ended with a disappointing figure in Britain’s growth. The U.K. economy grew half as much as economists forecast in the first quarter as winter weather hampered expansion, underscoring the recovery’s fragility two weeks before the election. The Prelim GDP report showed a 0.2% increase from the last quarter of 2009, when a 0.4% expansion pushed Britain out of the recession.

Yesterday, the pound strengthened against the dollar for the first time in three days after a report showed U.K. house prices increased for a ninth consecutive month, underpinning signs the economic recovery is gaining traction. The Sterling advanced versus 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts after Hometrack Ltd. said the average cost of a home increased 0.2% from March. The pound gained 0.5% to $1.5450 (as of 1:20 p.m. in London) and appreciated 0.9% to 86.24 pence per euro, after earlier reaching 86.07 pence, the strongest since Jan. 28. The Pound closed at $1.54691, up 0.62% from its opening price.

This week, few economic events are scheduled that will several affect the value of the Pound. Early this morning (930GMT), the British Banker’s Association will release the number of new mortgages that they approved for home purchases. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending. This figure is generally considered a leading indicator of housing market demand as most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market. Last month monthly approvals reached a peak of 35.3K; a rise of 39.3K is expected now.

Forex News: EUR still plunging over Greek bailout negotiations

2010-04-26T15:51:00.004+05:30

“Europe and the members of the euro zone, are committed to a common currency and will defend it at any cost,” Greece’s Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters yesterday in Washington, following his meeting with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. According to the Greek Prime Minister, Europe’s response to the Greek fiscal crisis shows that the bloc will do whatever is necessary to protect its unilateral currency.

Greece is currently negotiating the terms of a bailout worth as much as €45 billion this year as investors continue to doubt that that the tiny Mediterranean nation can finance itself after its budget deficit totaled 13.6% of gross domestic product last year. With Greece facing €8.5 billion of bonds maturing May 19, finance ministers are seeking a swift resolution of the talks.

Last Thursday, the Euro plunged to a new one year low of $1.32574 after a EuroStat report that Greece's budget deficit was larger than previously thought. Greece called for activation of the joint EU-IMF €45 billion ($60 billion) bailout fund this year in an unprecedented test of the Euro’s stability and European political cohesion. The appeal for help from the European Union and International Monetary Fund follows a rapid rise in borrowing costs to what Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called unsustainable levels that would ruin all efforts to cut the budget deficit that is more than four times the EU limit. Greece’s request of the bailout fund comes one day after the yield on the country’s benchmark two-year note topped 11%, approaching that of Pakistan, and Moody’s Investors Service lowered Greece’s creditworthiness by one notch to A3, saying it was considering further cuts.

On Friday, the single currency managed to rally against the US Dollar, as German business confidence rose more than expected to hit a two year high in April. The Germany Ifo Climate, a survey based on 7,000 executives, jumped from a revised 98.2 to 101.6 (the market had expected 98.2) as the global economic recovery boosted export demand and warmer weather allowed workers back onto construction sites. The Euro's 12% drop in the past five months has made German exports more competitive outside the currency bloc and as a result, German manufacturing is expanding at a record pace. Moreover the arrival of spring weather has significantly boosted building activity and consumer spending.

Following the release of the better than expected report, the euro rose to trade at $1.3335 (at 11 a.m. in Frankfurt), up from 1.3230 that morning. Unfortunately, the Euro was unable to fully recover from Thursday's detrimental losses and fell for a second week in a row to close at $1.33837, up 0.88% from the day’s opening price but down 0.78% from the week’s opening price.

In the Asian forex online trading session this morning, the EUR/USD gained some ground as the pair hit a high of 1.33961. Analysts, predict that Euro will continue to fluctuate this week as investors await a solid plan on a financial lifeline for debt-stricken Greece. Later today, the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet will speak (1730GMT).

Across the Channel, the U.K economy grew half as much as expected in the first quarter of this year, highlighting that Britain still continues to struggle with its recovery. Britain's Prelim GDP report showed a 0.2% increase from the last quarter of 2009, when a 0.4% expansion pushed Britain out of the recession. The pound tumbled 0.4% to $1.5318 following the report, from $1.5397. The British currency managed to recovery against its U.S counterpart, to close the week at $1.53749, up 0.05% from the day’s opening price. The EUR/USD closed at 0.87027, down 0.82% from the day’s opening price of 0.86318.

Trend taking U-turn as major currencies struggling while CAD gaining heights

2010-04-23T16:37:00.006+05:30

Greece is currently negotiating the details of an emergency joint rescue package from the euro zone and International Monetary Fund.

The Greek government has said it wants to reduce the deficit to 5.6% of GDP in 2011 and 2.8% of GDP in 2012. But spending cutbacks measures being introduced by Athens to restore its finances are being resisted. Yesterday tens of thousands of Greek civil servants staged a 24-hour strike in protest against the austerity measures.
The Bank of Canada yesterday continued to keep financial markets guessing about when policy rate increases may begin, but said their time has come. Likely dates are June 1st or July 20th for the first of a series of increases.

Canada’s dollar traded near a 22- month high against its US counterpart in the forex online market as the central bank signaled an increase in interest rates and reiterated that the need for economic stimulus is fading. The currency hit a high of CAD 0.99606 before dropping back to close just below parity at CAD 1.00061.

The Bank only provided detail in a Monetary Policy Report to outlines given Tuesday when it maintained the year-long rock-bottom overnight rate target at 0.25%. It said the need for such extraordinary stimulus is over and it is time "to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus." However, the timing and size of rate increases "will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation." And here, on economic activity and recovery from recession, the Report is laced through with cautions.

Inflation is expected to remain anchored at around the 2% target through 2012, with the Bank evidently little concerned about it. Looking at growth, though there was a strong 5.8% recovery in the first quarter of this year, and 3.8% expected GDP increase in the present quarter, this recovery is "front-loaded," the Bank says. Growth will diminish to 3.5% in the second half and more rapidly in 2011, down to just +1.9% in the two final quarters of next year.

From now on, Canadian growth "will revert more quickly to trend," in the Bank's assessment. From the present second quarter this year through all of 2011, growth slows because policy stimulus measures had brought forward "considerably more expenditures" late last year and early this year than expected. Moreover, the Bank expects "a somewhat weaker outlook for US economic growth starting in the second half of 2010." Another drag is "the higher assumed level for the Canadian dollar."
The Bank bases its assessments in part on a Canadian dollar averaging 99 cents against the US dollar over its projection period (through 2012). The Canadian dollar was at parity with the US dollar Wednesday.

On an average annual basis, Canadian GDP is expected by the Bank to grow by 3.7% this year, against just 2.9% expected in the January Monetary Policy Report. Then, growth slows gradually to 3.1% in 2011 (3.5% expected last January), and down to 1.9% in 2012.

Unclear majority in UK Parliament pushing difficulties to manage budget deficit

2010-04-22T15:17:00.002+05:30

Yesterday the pound rose against both the euro and the US dollar as UK claimant counts fell more than economists forecast in March, giving a boost to Prime Minister Gordon Brown as he fights the tightest UK general election for more than 30 years. The currency gained 0.31% against the US dollar to close at GBP 1.54081 in the forex online market. It rose by 0.66% against the euro to close at GBP 0.86861.

The number of people collecting jobless benefits fell 32,900 from February to 1.54 million, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday. A drop of 10,000 had been expected. In February, the number of jobless claims fell by 40,100 instead of the 32,300 drop originally reported. The decline was the largest since June 1997. In March, the claimant count rate fell to 4.8%, the lowest since June last year, from 4.9%.

A separate measure of unemployment climbed to a 16-year high. The 8% unemployment rate, up from 7.8% in the previous period, compares with 9.7% in the US and 10% in the 16-nation euro zone.

Polls published Tuesday showed Labour slipping into third place after a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the first debate on April 15th. The results mean Labour could win the most seats in Parliament and remain in power with the support of the Liberal Democrats.
Sterling has been weakened by market speculation that the general election may produce no clear majority in Parliament. A minority government would have difficulty pushing through measures to tackle the budget deficit, which currently rivals that of Greece, at almost 12% of GDP.

The report may fuel speculation that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates at a faster pace than previously thought as inflation climbed to 3.4% last month. Some central bank officials showed concern at the prospect of a prolonged bout of faster inflation when they met earlier this month, according to the minutes of their meeting published yesterday. The central bank has kept its interest rate at 0.5% since March 2009 to bolster growth.

U.K. annual consumer-price growth accelerated to 3.4% last month, according to data released on Tuesday, pushing close to the 14-month high of 3.5% reached in January. The Bank of England has a mandate to target inflation at 2% and keep it within 1 percentage point of that goal.

Bank of England officials, who are trying to balance fostering the economic recovery and the threat of accelerating inflation, have suspended comment on policy before the May 6th general election as Prime Minister Gordon Brown tries to win over voters on his record of managing the economy.

In Europe yesterday the Greek government's cost of borrowing hit a new high as talks on the rescue plan began. The interest rate on 10-year government bonds hit 8.3% - the highest level since the euro was introduced. Rates rose as it became clear that talks over the aid package may not be finished until days before a multi-billion-euro loan is due for repayment.

Many observers now feel it will be a question of when not if, Greece needs the aid.
Greece's finance ministry said the talks with the European Commission and the IMF would take about two weeks, with a joint text expected to be issued on around May 15th. On May 19th, Greece is due to repay investors an 8.5 billion euro bond.

In a statement on Tuesday, Greece's finance ministry, said: "The discussions concern a three-year program of economic policies... which can be supported with financial assistance from euro zone members and the IMF should Greek authorities decide to request the activation of the mechanism."

The talks, will discuss the precise terms, conditions, and interest rates that would apply if Greece asks for the aid. If all sides can agree to the terms required it should clear the way to a quick payout of up to 45 billion euro on offer from the EU and IMF.

“Conditional Commitment” shifted economic outlook, no assurance of settled trade

2010-04-21T13:13:00.004+05:30

Yesterday's announcement that the lending rate would remain at a record low of 0.25% contained a phrase about a “conditional commitment” to keep it unchanged until July unless the inflation outlook shifted. The bank said inflation will be “slightly higher” than its 2% target over the next year, and increased its 2010 economic growth forecast to 3.7% from 2.9%.

“With recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus,” the central bank, led by Governor Mark Carney, said. “The extent and timing will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation.”

The Canadian Dollar jumped 1.6% against its American counterpart as the new language suggested the bank may increase rates as early as its next announcement on June 1. The Canadian Dollar closed the day trading above parity with the US Dollar at CAD 0.99792.

USD/CAD Chart

In Australia concern that the current mining boom will stoke inflation was a key reason the central bank raised borrowing costs toward “more normal levels” two weeks ago according to the minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee released yesterday.

Governor Glenn Stevens has led the world in raising borrowing costs, after raising the overnight cash rate this month by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, the fifth move in six meetings. The bank is signaling further increases in borrowing costs as the economy’s expansion accelerates, spurred by this year’s 50% jump in the spot price for iron ore.

GDP grew in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in almost two years, rising 0.9% from the previous three months. The economy expanded 2.7% from a year earlier.

“On the question of timing, the fact that the prospective rise in the terms of trade was now likely to be noticeably stronger than had been expected was a factor suggesting that it might be prudent not to delay adjustment,” central bank officials said in the minutes. By contrast, central banks in Europe, the UK and the US have left borrowing costs close to or at record lows.

Yesterday in the forex online market the Australian Dollar saw a drop against its American counterpart for the third day, it fell 0.64% to close at AUD 0.93116.

In the commodities market Gold prices steadied above two-week lows yesterday but investors remained cautious about potential fallout from fraud charges against Goldman Sachs and the currency volatility on Greece's debt problems. On Monday, investors took the opportunity to cash in profits on gold, which has rallied about $100 since early February, pushing it down to a two-week low.

Improved Housing signaled widened recovery but consumer confidence slacked

2010-04-19T16:19:00.003+05:30

US Housing starts climbed to an annual rate of 626,000 last month, up 1.6% from February’s 616,000 pace, according to Commerce Department figures released Friday in Washington. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, climbed to the highest level since October 2008. An improvement in the housing market, after a crash that contributed to the deepest recession since World War II ended signals a broadening of the economic recovery.

New-home construction rose 20% in March from the same month last year. Permits were up 34% in the 12 months ended in March. Construction of single-family houses decreased 0.9% to a 531,000 rate in March, while permits increased 5.6%. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, climbed 19% to an annual rate of 95,000. The increase in starts was concentrated in the South. New construction fell in the rest of the country.

A separate report showed consumer confidence unexpectedly slumped in April, indicating Americans are worried the expansion will be too slow to bolster the labor market. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped to 69.5 this month from a final reading of 73.6 in March. The gauge was projected to rise to 75.

A measure of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it’s a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, dropped to the lowest level this year. The index of expectations six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, posted its weakest reading since March 2009.

Stocks fell on Friday, halting a six-day rally, after the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs Group Inc. with fraud. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.6% to close at 1,192.13. As a result Friday saw the US Dollar climb against the Euro for the second day, the Dollar gained 0.50% to close at EUR 1.35011. In the Forex online market the US Dollar also climbed against the Pound for the second day in a row, appreciating 0.65% to close at GBP 1.53607.

Gold was steady on Friday, as safe-haven buying related to worries about Greece's debt crisis helped the metal defy pressure from a rising U.S. Dollar.

Sterling appreciated on leading of Conservative party

2010-04-16T17:08:00.003+05:30

The Euro snapped five days of gains against the greenback as concerns begin to grow that the European Union’s latest rescue plan for Greece- a €45billion bailout package – won’t be enough to restore the single currencies value. The European Union’s single currency fell sharply against all but 2 of its 16 most traded currency counterparts, as the extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds rose above 400 basis points for the first time since Greece’s bailout package was announced last Sunday. The EUR/USD hit a fresh weekly low of $1.3515.

The yield on Greece’s 10-year notes advanced 0.02 percentage point to 7.09% on concern Greece’s won’t get the fund it needs to fund a deficit that is 12.9% of gross domestic product, the biggest in the Euro’s history. The Parliaments of Germany, France and Ireland must first vote on whether to contribute their share of the EU loans.

This morning (1000GMT), Eurostate will release the annual Consumer Price Index for the entire continent. The market expects that the annual adjusted inflation will continue to increase at 1.5%, and that core CPI is expected to be revised from 0.8% to 0.9% - however, only a substantially rise in this figure will push the ECB to contemplate a rate hike.

The British Pound rose 0.6% to 87.77 pence against the euro after a survey showed the Conservative Party has extended its lead over the reigning Labour Party, easing concerns that next month’s election won’t produce a clear winner. The Sterling appreciated for a second day in a row against the single European currency after Britain’s Daily Telegraph published a poll showing that the Conservative party was in the lead with 43% support rate, compared to the Labour party’s 31% support. This poll signals that the U.K turbulent political situation is beginning to stabilize, which, according to analysts, is particular good news for the country’s currency which has recently suffered on concerns that U.K will not have a majority government following the next election. While early in the day during the European trading session, the pound dipped as low as $1.53840. However, the British currency managed recover during the U.S trading session, to reach a high of $1.5509. The GBP/USD closed the day at $1.55002 in the forex online market.

Across the Atlantic, the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly increased last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market will take time to unfold. Labor Department figures showed yesterday that Initial jobless applications rose by 24,000 in the week ended April 10; however a Labor Department spokesman said the rise in claims was due more to administrative factors reflecting volatility around Easter than economic reasons. None the less, the number of jobless names passed the market predicted vale of 439K, to reach 484K – the highest level since February 20th. Reluctances among some companies to hire is among one of the biggest challenges facing the economy as it recovers from what is considered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Employment gains are needed to help stimulate consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy. This disappointing figure comes one day after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told congress that high unemployment and weak construction are among the “significant restraints” on the pace of growth. However despite a worse than expected result, the U.S Dollar was up against the euro following the release of the joblessness claims, with the EUR/USD shedding 0.82% to reach 1.3441.

Forex News: Extension of Low rates destabilized USD

2010-04-15T17:44:00.003+05:30

The U.S dollar suffered losses against its major counterparts yesterday as a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. retail sales last month spurred demand for riskier assets and the Federal Reserve Chairman repeated that interest rates will remain low for an “extended period”.

U.S retail sales rose 1.6% in March, marking the fifth gain in the past six months. Yesterday the U.S Census Bureau reported that sales totaled $363.2 billion, as demand increased for autos, building materials and new clothes. Excluding autos and trucks, core retail sales for March rose slightly more than expected- increasing 0.6% to $300.5billion. At the same time as the release of the retail sales report, the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. While CPI was in line with market expectations of a 0.1%, the Core rate (excluding food and fuel) held steady after rising 0.1% in February- reflecting cheaper rents and clothing. Following the release of these reports, the USD increased by its largest amount versus the Japanese Yen in more than a week. The greenback appreciated as much as 0.6% to 93.72, resulting in the pairs biggest intra day gain since April 2nd. Moreover, following the release of these reports, the EUR/USD tumbled below the 1.3600 mark, hitting a fresh intra-day low of 1.3595. However, shortly after, the USD reversed all of these prior gains, declining 0.3% to reach $1.3658 per euro.

The Greenback continued to fall throughout the day, nearing its weakest level in almost a month versus the Euro as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testified to the Joint Economic Committee that policy makers have “stated clearly” that interest rates will be very low for an “extended period,” contingent on low inflation and other economic trends. Yesterday Bernanke said the U.S. expansion will remain moderate as the economy contends with weak construction spending and high unemployment. “On balance, the incoming data suggest that growth in private final demand will be sufficient to promote a moderate economic recovery in coming quarters,” Bernanke said when he testified in front of on Capitol Hill. He went on to say that “significant restraints on the pace of the recovery remain, including weakness in both residential and nonresidential construction and the poor fiscal condition of many state and local governments.” Currently U.S. central bankers are debating how and when to pull back monetary stimulus as the economy recovers from the worst slump since the Great Depression. The Fed chairman’s remarks didn’t include a discussion of the path of interest rates, and his outlook doesn’t suggest officials are ready to alter their guidance that rates will remain low “for an extended period”. Policy makers have held the benchmark interest rate at zero to 0.25% since December 2008. Fed officials will next meet on April 27th and 28th. The Dollar Index traded near a four-week low on prospects that Fed officials will reiterate they expect to keep interest rates near zero. The index, which tracks the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, bought 80.250 from 80.190 yesterday when it declined to 80.031, the lowest level since March 18.

Yesterday evening the U.S Federal Reserve released the Beige Book – a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the twelve Fed districts regarding local and economic conditions that covers approximately the six week period from the end of February through early April. According to the Beige Book eleven of the twelve Fed districts experienced growth since the last report. The St. Louis district was the lone exception, as it reported "softened" economic conditions. The U.S Dollar remained steady after the release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book with the EUR/USD holding steady above 1.3650; the GBP/USD traded above 1.5460. USD/JPY managed to rise to 93.20 from 93.00.

In the forex online market the USD closed the day down 0.30% against the Euro at $1.36541, down 0.54% against the GBP at $1.54695 and down 0.14% against the Yen at 93.181Y/USD.

Early this afternoon, the Department of Labor will release the number of unemployment claims for the week of April 5th. While last week saw disappointing rise to 460K, breaking the previous few week’s trend of steady improvement, this week the market predicts that the number of jobless claims will fall back down to 439K. Also out this afternoon, the U.S Department of Treasury will release the February’s TIC Long-Term Purchases – a report that represents the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period. After leaping $126.8billion three months ago, this figure has been steadily increasing – jumping $19.1billion last month. This time around, the market predicts that the TIC Long-Term Purchases will increase by $39.2billion. The U.S’s numerous reports today will end with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1500GMT). This important gauge of production has been on the rise in the past three months, ticking up to 18.9 points last time. It’s now predicted to take the next step and rise to 20.3 points (a level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions).

Events Testifying Economic Outlook

2010-04-14T15:22:00.002+05:30

It is a very busy day for the United States, as the world’s leading economic nation is set to release two sets of very important figures, the monthly CPI and monthly Retail Sales.

At half past one this afternoon, the Census Bureau will release Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for March. Economists predict retail sales will increase by as much as 1.1%, the biggest increase in four months as better weather and hiring pick up.

The market also predicts that core retail sales will increase by 0.5%. Published at the same time as retail sales, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI and core CPI for March. Inflation is the key to raising the interest rate, and boosting the value of a currency; however, economists predict that CPI will increase by 0.1%, after remaining unchanged last time.

Core CPI, which is closely watch by the Fed, is predicted to increase by 0.1%- exactly like last month.
Later today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill. Last night, Bernanke addressed the National Bankers Association. While the Fed Chairman did not comment on the current economic conditions or on the Fed’s interest-rate policy in yesterday’s speech, today he is expected to discuss his economic outlook for the U.S, and explain why he is unwilling to raise the interest rates.

Yesterday, the bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S trade deficit widened in February to $39.7 billion further adding to evidence of a rebound in the country’s economic growth and effect on forex online outputs. The trade gap, which surpassed market expectations of $38.5billion, increased 7.4% from a revised $37billion in January.

Imports climbed 1.7% as Americans bought more computers and televisions abroad, while exports rose to its highest level since October 2008. The need to replenish depleted inventories and gains in consumer spending mean purchases of goods and services from overseas will keep growing in coming months. Exports will probably also advance as global growth accelerates, giving companies across the board a boost.

Also out yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported prices of goods imported into the U.S rose less than anticipated in March, indicating few signs of building inflation pressures from abroad. While markets had expected a 0.9% increase, the report showed a 0.7% increase in the import-price index, which follows a revised 0.2% drop in February.

Following the release of the data, the U.S. dollar was down against the Yen, with USD/JPY trading at 92.87, down 0.41% prior to the release. The USD also weakened against the Euro, falling to $1.3613.

Across the border, Canada posted its fifth straight trade surplus in February, the longest series of reported surpluses since November 2008, adding to yet piece of evidence supporting a growing economic recovery. Yesterday Canada’s balance of goods beat market expectations as Stats Canada reported a monthly trade surplus of C$1.40 billion ($1.39 billion), the largest surplus since October 2008. Despite a rising Canadian Dollar, exports increased 2.8% in February to C$34, led by a 7.2% gain in industrial goods and automatic products. Imports rose 0.9% to C$32.6 billion.

However, despite this positive news, the Loonie was little changed at C$1.0033 per U.S. dollar following the report.

Forex News: Past Trading underpinning for Future

2010-04-13T16:44:00.002+05:30

The Euro strengthened yesterday to its highest level in more than three weeks versus the U.S Dollar after news broke that Greece would be receiving an international rescue package worth as much as €45 billion ($61 billion) to help it avoid a default. Following the announcement of the of the “rescue plan” the single currency rose to $1.36906, appreciating as much as 1.4%, its biggest gain since last September. The Euro’s gain, which was its third increase in the past three days, sent the Dollar Index tumbling 1.3% to its lowest level since March 18th.

The 16-nation Euro-Zone finance ministers reported that they would offer Greece €30 billion in three-year loans in 2010 at about 5% interest. An additional €15 billion would come from the International Monetary Fund, resulting in what could possibly be the largest multilateral financial rescue ever attempted. The Greek official said the government would decide within a few days whether to ask for the aid, depending on whether market interest rates subside. For the time being, Athens will try and refinance its public debt on the bond market. This week, the Greek government will hold another bond auction that will surely be a test if the Euro Zone’s recent bailout plan has restored faith in the Greek bonds.

By yesterday’ close the single European currency has retreated from its near three week high against the USD as Greece prepares to sell €1.2Billion in 26 and 52 week bills. The Euro closed at $1.35924, down 0.71% from the day’s high in the forex online market.

The Japanese Yen rose, ending three days of losses versus the EUR, on speculation demand for Greece’s short-term debt will be weak at an auction today. Japan’s currency appreciated versus all 16 major counterparts after Asian stocks dropped, weakening demand for riskier investments. After closing yesterday at 126.119, the EUR/JPY continued to fall throughout this morning’s trading session, touching on a low of 125.690. Similarly, the USD/JPY fell during this morning’s Asian session- tumbling as much as 0.64% from yesterday’s closing price of 93.161, to hit a session low of 92.563.

Yesterday, the U.S posted a budget deficit for a record 18th straight month in March, reflecting gains in government spending to bolster the economy. The excess of spending over revenue declined to $65.4 billion last month, compared with the $220.9 billion reported last month, according to Treasury Department figures released yesterday in Washington. A deficit that’s forecast to reach a record $1.6 trillion this fiscal year illustrates the challenges facing President Barack Obama and Congress as they struggle to stimulate the recovery while keeping the budget gap manageable. Deterioration in the government’s balance sheet in coming years raises the risk of higher interest rates. Tonight, U.S Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak. He will continue to speak tomorrow at the Joint Economic Committee where he will lay out his economic outlook.

Forex recouping the market trends

2010-04-12T16:57:00.003+05:30

The Euro surged to the highest level in more than three weeks against the U.S Dollar after European governments offered Greece a rescue package worth as much as €45Bn ($61bn) at below-market interest rates.

Finance Ministers of the 16-nation single currency bloc have agreed to offer as much as €30bn in three year loans, at around 5% interest. This is much lower than current borrowing costs facing the debt-stricken nation, with the yield on Greek government debt rising to a record high of 7.5% last Thursday. The aid package also involves the International Monetary Fund, which will provide an additional €15bn. "The Eurogroup is confident that the determined efforts of the Greek authorities and of its European partners will allow to overcome the fiscal and structural challenges of the Greek economy," an E.U. statement said.

Following the release of the news in the forex online market, the EUR rose 1.2% to strike a high of $1.36906, the highest price for the single currency since March 18th. This unexpected jump comes a few days after the single European currency dropped to within one cent of an 11-month low against the greenback, last Thursday. It rose 1.1%, the most since March 31, to 127.19 yen. The Euro also managed to regain all of last week’s losses against the British Pound. Following the news of a “Greek Bailout”, the EUR/GBP appreciated 0.50%- jumping from last Friday’s closing price of 0.87802 to a high of 0.88241, this morning.

The E.U. decision follows a nightmare week for the Greek administration, which saw borrowing costs soaring to a record high, while international ratings agency Fitch lowered the country's credit rating on Friday to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' with a negative outlook.

For a second straight week, the British Pound climbed against the U.S dollar, as U.K producer prices jumped in March by more than the market has predicted, in the largest increase for since November 2008. PPI Input soared a record 3.6% between February and March, versus an expected increase of 0.6%, boosted by the rising cost of petroleum products. Britain’s Office of National Statistics also reported that the PPI Output increased above expectations, rising 0.9% for the previous month, and 5% from a year earlier. This monthly rise was more than double the market forecasted increase of 0.4%, adding signs that Britain’s economic recovery is gathering speed. The GBP closed on Friday at $1.53692, up 0.598% from the day’s opening price of 1.52778, and up 0.68% from the week’s opening price of $1.52654. In this morning Asian session, the GBP/USD extended above the 1.54000 mark, to hit a 7-week high of 1.54833, before pulling back to the 1.5435 area.

Forex Friday Interpretations

2010-04-09T13:23:00.003+05:30

More Americans unexpectedly filed first time claims for jobless benefits last week, in part reflecting difficulty in seasonally adjusting the data ahead of the Easter holiday. Initial jobless applications increased by 18,000 to 460,000 in the week ended April 3rd, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. The week leading up to Easter and the two weeks that follow are traditionally a “volatile time” for claims, a Labor Department analyst said.

Last week the US Labor Department reported that payrolls rose by 162,000 in March, the biggest gain in three years. The unemployment rate was 9.7% for a third month. It has not increased since reaching a 26-year high of 10.1% in October.

Some companies may be reluctant to expand payrolls until they see sustained increases in sales as the US emerges from recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that joblessness, home foreclosures and weak lending to small businesses pose challenges to the economy.

Yesterday the US Dollar fell 0.14% against the Euro to close at USD 1.3359 in the forex online market. The US Dollar had climbed against the Euro during the previous four days. Against Sterling the US Dollar also dropped for the first time in three days, sliding 0.26% to close at USD 1.5273.

In the UK yesterday the Bank of England kept interest rates at a record low of 0.5% for the 13th consecutive month in its last decision before the upcoming general election. It also left its 200 billion-Pound asset purchasing program on hold.

The decision had been widely anticipated amid concerns that Britain's recovery from a punishing 18-month long downturn remains fragile. The perilous state of the economy is expected to be a major factor in the general election scheduled for May 6th.

Both the ruling Labour Party and the main opposition Conservative Party are trying to convince voters that they have a clear plan to reduce the country's massive budget deficit — but both also warn that Britons face a new age of austerity regardless of the election outcome.

Also in the UK yesterday, results of the latest Halifax survey showed that house prices rebounded in March after falling sharply in February. March house prices were up 1.1% on the month to stand up 5.2% on the year, following a revised 1.6% fall on the month in February. The 1.1% increase was the eighth monthly rise in house prices in the past nine months and the largest since November last year.

The 5.2% year-on-year rise was the largest since December 2007. House prices in the first quarter were up 0.6% on the fourth quarter. UK house prices were up 9.1% in March from their April 2009 trough, having fallen 23% from peak to trough.

Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said increasing supply should curb house price inflation. "There are signs that an increase in the number of properties available for sale is beginning to reduce the imbalance between supply and demand. This should help to contain the upward pressure on house prices," he said.

Joblessness, Home foreclosure, Weak lending; 3 factors troubling the US Economy

2010-04-08T13:11:00.001+05:30

In the US yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said joblessness, home foreclosures and weak lending to small businesses pose challenges to the economy as it recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“We are far from being out of the woods,” Bernanke said yesterday in a speech in Dallas. While the financial crisis has abated and economic growth will probably reduce unemployment over the next year, the U.S. faces hurdles including the lack of a sustained rebound in housing, a “troubled” commercial real estate market and “very weak” hiring, he said.

The remarks reflect concerns by Fed officials at their meeting last month that the job market and tight credit would restrain consumer spending. At the meeting, Bernanke and his colleague's reiterated interest rates will stay very low for an “extended period.” While he didn’t repeat that in yesterday's speech he did say the Fed’s “stimulative” rates will aid growth.

The US Dollar climbed against both the Euro and Sterling in the forex online market yesterday. Against the Euro it posted its third day of gains, climbing 0.41% to close at USD 1.3344. It climbed for the second day against the Pound, gaining 0.20% overall to close at USD 1.5239.

In Europe revised figures have shown that the economy failed to grow at all in the final quarter of 2009 as companies cut spending more than previously expected. The European Union's statistics office said that the quarter-on-quarter growth in the three months to December had proved to be zero. This was revised down from a previously reported 0.1%, according to Eurostat.

GDP in the 16-nation Euro Zone remained unchanged compared with the third quarter when it rose 0.4%. Year on year the economy of the 16 countries using the Euro contracted by 2.2%, more than the previously expected 2.1%.

The European economy is now showing signs of rebounding from its end-of-year relapse as the global recovery prompts companies to step up investment levels. While unemployment is at an 11-year high, economic confidence improved in March and the region’s services and manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest pace since August 2007.

A separate report yesterday showed that German factory orders held steady in February after a surge in January as an increase in foreign demand for basic goods and machinery countered a drop in domestic orders. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, were unchanged from January, when they jumped 5.1%, according to the Economy Ministry in Berlin. Economists had forecast a 0.5% decline for February.

Orders from outside the 16-nation Euro area increased 2.9% in February from the previous month, driven by a 5% surge in basic goods orders and a 2.4% gain in demand for investment goods, yesterdays report showed. Domestic orders fell 1.9% from January. January’s overall orders increase was revised up from an initially reported 4.3% gain. The data, combined with solid sentiment indicators, suggest the recovery in the manufacturing industry will continue.

Forex News: Aussie Gained against USD with RBA rate benchmark setting

2010-04-07T18:33:00.002+05:30

In the UK the construction sector expanded in March for the first time in more than two years, led by a sharp rise in new orders in the housing and commercial sectors. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply/Markit construction PMI index jumped to 53.1 last month from 48.5 in February - the first reading above the 50 level that divides growth from contraction since February 2008.

Incoming new orders increased during March for the first time in four months and only the second time in the past two years. However, construction firms continued to shed jobs in March and concern over cutbacks in government spending meant they were less optimistic than in February.

"Though it's great to see the UK construction sector turn the corner after two years of relentless contraction, it's still very early days," said David Noble, chief executive officer at the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. "The recession hit construction the hardest and because the industry is operating from such a low base, this upturn may be short-lived."

Of the three subsectors, house-building showed the strongest rise in activity, expanding for a seventh consecutive month. Commercial activity reported growth for the first time since February 2008. The civil engineering sub-sector, which is typically more reliant on public spending, contracted. Construction accounts for around 6% of Britain's economic output. In the first quarter as a whole, British construction activity was broadly unchanged, suggesting the sector is no longer acting as a drag on GDP.

Early tomorrow the UK manufacturing production PMI will be released. This indicator dropped by 0.9% last month, the first drop in five months, hurting the Pound. A correction is predicted this time – a rise of 0.7%. Note that manufacturing is 80% of industrial production which is published at the same time, that figure is expected to rise by 0.5%.

This week's major announcement for the Pound is the rate decision; the announcement will be made tomorrow at 11.45 GMT. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. The Asset Purchase Facility is also expected to remain unchanged.

In the forex online market yesterday against the US Dollar Pound gained 0.18% to close trading at GBP 1.5241.

American unemployment claims will also be published tomorrow at 12:30 GMT. Yet another drop in the weekly jobless claims is due. After reaching 439K last week, they’re predicted to drop to 432K, supporting more job gains in the next Non Farm Payrolls.

Finally yesterday Australia’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25% and signaled further increases, dismissing warnings that higher borrowing costs are already eroding consumer spending. Governor Glenn Stevens boosted the overnight cash rate target from 4%, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement in Sydney yesterday. The Aussie gained 0.74% against the US Dollar following the announcement, jumping from AUD 0.9207 to AUD 0.9276.

Stevens was the first G-20 policy maker to raise borrowing costs twice this year. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month that the world’s biggest economy “continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies.” The Fed has kept its benchmark rate close to zero since late 2008 and the European Central Bank’s rate is at a record low of 1%.

Forex News: The Loonie moves closer to parity

2010-04-06T12:57:00.002+05:30

US service industries expanded in March at the fastest pace since May 2006 indicating that the recovery in the US economy has spread beyond the manufacturing sector and is creating jobs. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which comprise almost 90% of the economy, rose to 55.4, a bigger jump than expected and up from 53.0 the previous month. The pace of orders to service industries rose to the highest level since 2005, while backlogs were the highest since August 2007, indicating companies were having trouble meeting demand.

On Friday the US Labor Department said that employers increased payrolls by 162,000 workers last month, the third gain in five months and the largest since March 2007, indicating that companies are increasingly confident regarding economic recovery. Sustained employment gains would boost incomes leading to increased consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of the economy. James O Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Ltd said "the recovery is looking increasingly self sustaining".

Also yesterday a report by the National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in February jumped the most since 2001. The index of purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose to 8.2%, the second biggest gain on record and the largest since October 2001. Buyers may be taking advantage of a tax credit that requires contracts to be signed by the end of April, indicating that the market might soon see a rebound in sales.

“Some of this may be an increase in activity ahead of the prospect of the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Even so, “if what we’re seeing in the labor market is actually showing decent growth, then I would expect housing would follow.”

Pending sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. The Realtors’ existing-home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later. The pending sales data goes back as far as January 2001.

North of the border in Canada the Loonie again moved closer to parity last week on the back of rising crude oil prices. Oil prices have been rising amid growing optimism that improved US job creation will boost economic recovery and lead to higher demand for crude oil. World oil prices have been on an upward trend partly because of signs of improvement in the US economy, but also because of a weak US Dollar which tends to increase prices of commodities priced in that currency.

Yesterday the Canadian Dollar rose by 0.60% against its American counterpart closing at CAD 1.0019 in the forex online market.

Tomorrow will bring the release of Canadian building permits. Permits made a huge jump four month ago before returning to normal. After a fall of 4.9%, permits are expected to rise by 2.1% this time and may give a boost to the currency. Also out tomorrow is the Ivey PMI. This index has shown that the Canadian economy has expanded in the last two months. This time it is expected to show a rise from 51.9 points to 55.1 points.

Forex: Past events shook market; rush to see force of Upcoming events

2010-04-02T17:30:00.004+05:30

Fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, bringing the average over the last month to the lowest level since 2008 as the economic recovery prompted companies to retain staff. Initial jobless applications fell by 6,000 to 439,000 in the week ending March 27th. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance was almost unchanged while the number of people receiving extended benefits rose.

Employers are slowing job cuts, a sign of confidence, as the U.S. emerges from the worst recession since the 1930s. Sustained employment gains are needed to boost consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy. Economists had predicted a drop in weekly claims to 440,000, from a previously estimated 442,000 for the week ended March 20th.

Yesterday a report from ADP Employer Services showed that companies had unexpectedly cut payrolls in March. The 23,000 decline in payrolls was the smallest in two years and followed a revised drop of 24,000 claims the previous month.

In other news the US manufacturing sector has expanded in March at its fastest rate in six years. The Institute of Supply Managements PMI rose to 59.6 points in March, up from 56.5 in February. The PMI is calculated from data on new orders, production, employment, and purchasing. An index reading above 50 indicates that activity is rising. Anything under 50 shows contraction. March was the eight month in succession that US manufacturers have increased output.

The ISM's latest monthly figure for the US exceeded the market expectation of 57 and comes as the wider economy is continuing to recover. The institute said growth was strongest among clothing manufacturers. Other recent economic data showed that consumer spending rose in February but at its slowest rate since September of last year.

In the forex online market yesterday the US Dollar gained 0.72% against the Pound closing trading at GBP 1.5288. Against the Euro the US Dollar climbed 0.58% to close at EUR 1.3585.

Across the water in Europe, retail sales in Germany, the Euro Zones largest economy, fell for the second month in February as bad weather and concern that unemployment might rise kept consumers at home. German consumer confidence slipped to an eight month low in March and the coldest weather in 14 years kept people at home. At the same time rising energy prices pushed inflation to 1.3% in March. But German unemployment fell unexpectedly in March as the economy recovered from recession.

European PMI data showed yesterday that manufacturing across the Euro Zone expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in March as the recovery in the global economy prompted companies to increase output. According to figures released by the London based Market Economics yesterday the European PMI rose to 56.6 from 54.2 in February. That is above the initial estimate of 56.3 and the fastest rate of growth since November 2008.

European manufacturers are bolstering the recovery from near stagnation in the fourth quarter of 2009 as the Euro's 5.7% drop against the US Dollar this year makes European exports more competitive abroad.

Forex Market: In Anticipation of Non-Farm Payrolls

2010-04-01T18:35:00.002+05:30

In the US the ADP Non-Farm Payroll has shown that companies there unexpectedly cut payrolls in March. The 23,000 decline was the smallest in two years and followed a revised 24,000 drop the prior month, data from ADP Employer Services showed today. Over the previous six months, ADP’s initial figures have overstated the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payroll losses by as little as 2,000 in February to as much as 151,000 in November.

A March payroll gain in line with the median estimate is due to the fact that the ADP’s figures aren’t influenced by weather and don’t include government payrolls which will reflect the hiring of temporary workers to conduct the census. The government has been hiring thousands of workers to conduct the regular 10-year U.S. Census, but those jobs are temporary. ADP includes only private employment and doesn’t take into account hiring by government agencies.
Analysts feel that companies are still hesitant to add workers until they are convinced that the economic recovery has taken hold. Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, which produces the figures with ADP said “the economic recovery has not been long enough or strong enough along the way yet to produce the kind of rapid employment that people are hoping for.”

Tomorrow's release of Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to show growth of 200,000 nonfarm jobs for March. Some economists are even predicting gains of up to 250,000. If the forecasts prove accurate, it would be the largest expansion since November 2007 and only the second advance in the past 27 months.

Although government statisticians try to account for season factors, severe snowstorms throughout the country skewed the data in February. In fields such as retail, construction and transportation, workers missed time and companies delayed hiring decisions. As a result, some of the increase in hiring that should have taken place in February got pushed into March.
Before Non-Farm Payroll data is released tomorrow American unemployment claims are due to be published later today. The figures have been improving in recent weeks dropping from 496K to 442K. Another drop in claims would raise expectations ahead of tomorrow's release however the figures are expected to remain almost unchanged.

Also due out later today is the manufacturing report issued by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM report for March is projected to rise to 57.4% from 56.5%, according to a MarketWatch survey. Readings above 56% are viewed as consistent with strong growth in manufacturing.

In trading yesterday the US Dollar fell 0.62% against the Euro to close at EUR 1.3507. It gained 0.73% on the Pound to close at GBP 1.5182.

North of the border, Canada’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in three years in January, led by manufacturing, wholesaling and construction, adding to evidence that the country is recovering more quickly than policy makers expected.

Gross domestic product increased 0.6% from December, the fifth straight gain and the biggest since December 2006, according to data from Statistics Canada. The report suggests first-quarter economic growth is still coming in faster than the Bank of Canada predicted, after output expanded at the highest quarterly rate since 2000 in the October-December period. Investors have raised bets that Governor Mark Carney will increase his key interest rate in the next few months on signs of quicker inflation and growth.

Carney has pledged to keep his key lending rate at a record low 0.25% through June unless the inflation outlook shifts. He also said March 24 the commitment is “expressly conditional” on inflation, and said that a key measure of inflation has increased faster than expected.
The central bank predicted the economy will grow at a 3.5 % pace this quarter and a 4.3% rate in the April- June period before slowing through next year. Canada’s 5% growth in the fourth quarter exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 3.3 % estimate. Gross domestic product was 1.3% greater in January than in the same month a year ago. The country’s first recession since 1992 ended in the third quarter of last year.

In a separate report, Statistics Canada said that non-farm payrolls were unchanged at 14.53 million in January from December, and down 1.1% from the year-earlier month. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said job creation is a top priority for his government this year.
In the forex online market the Loonie climbed up 0.39% against its American counterpart yesterday to close trading at CAD 1.0157.

US Consumer Confidence Bounce back in March

2010-03-31T15:35:00.003+05:30

U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in March after falling sharply in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 52.5 in March from 46.4 in February. Confidence had dropped significantly in February from 56.5 in January. The gain in confidence was greater than forecast, economists had predicted the index would increase to 51.0.

However Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center was cautious about the pick-up, saying that consumers continue to express concern about current business and labor market conditions.

"Their outlook for the next six months is still rather pessimistic," Franco said. “Despite this month’s increase, consumers continue to express concern about current business and labor market conditions. Overall, consumer confidence levels have not changed significantly since last spring.”

The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful advanced to 4.4% from 4%. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 45.8, the fewest since August. More people also anticipated incomes and employment would improve in the next six months, the report showed.

Data also showed that home prices unexpectedly rose in February. Rising stock prices, a stabilizing housing market and fewer firings may be giving households hope that the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s will be sustained. The 184,000 increase in payrolls economists project for this month shows it will take years for the economy to reverse the loss of 8.4 million jobs since the contraction began in December 2007.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose 0.3% in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis after a similar gain in December.

Cheaper homes, low borrowing costs and government incentives have combined to support the housing market after its collapse helped trigger the recession. Fed officials this month signaled the U.S. recovery isn’t strong enough to stoke inflation, reduce unemployment quickly or justify an end to record-low interest rates.

While the economy has “continued to strengthen,” policy makers said in a statement after their March 16 meeting that “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.” Unemployment is projected to end the year at 9.5%.

The US Dollar rose against Sterling yesterday as the Pound slipped 0.64% to close the day's trading at GBP 1.5071. The US Dollar slid 0.38% against the Euro closing at EUR 1.3424.

Later today American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls are due for release. The figures always shake the markets but it is not always a good predictor of Non-Farm Payrolls which will be released on Friday. Last time the figure showed a loss of 20,000 jobs. This time an increase of 41,000 jobs is predicted.

Yesterday saw the Canadian Dollar rise for the second day against its US counterpart as gains in global equities and crude oil spurred demand for commodity currencies. It gained 0.20% against the US Dollar during trading to close at CAD 1.0192. The previous day it advanced 0.51% or 0.05 cents against the US Dollar to CAD 1.0214.

The currency has gained 3.6% against the US Dollar so far this year, the second best performer after the Mexican Peso among the 16 most traded currencies in the forex online market. It will be the fourth straight quarterly rise for the currency, which tends to rise and fall with commodity prices.

"The Canadian Dollar remains a market favorite and after a brief correction last week appears to be back on track for a move towards parity", said Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange trading in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada's third largest lender. The Canadian GDP monthly figures are due for release later today.

Forex News: Eur soars high against the Greenback

2010-03-29T14:16:00.004+05:30

On Friday the Euro strengthened against the US Dollar and the Pound after EU leaders agreed on a financial aid package for Greece. The deal includes funds from the International Monetary Fund and totals around 22bn Euros which could be made available to Greece should the country have difficulty borrowing money to service its high level of debt.

Against the US Dollar the Euro rose by more than one cent to $1.3422 before falling back slightly to close trading at $1.3414 before the start of the weekend. It rose around two-fifths of a cent against Sterling to close trading at GBP 0.9003 in the forex online market.

On Wednesday the Euro had fallen to a ten month low against the US Dollar amid fears a deal would not be reached after Germany indicated Greece did not need assistance. This followed close on the heels of a credit downgrade for Portugal which further weakened the currency.

The deal may allay fears that the problems which Greece has experienced could spread out to affect other countries in the Euro Zone. Following the announcement that a deal had been reached yields, that is the interest rate investors are paid on loans to the government, on Greek bonds fell slightly, an indication that investors viewed them as slightly less risky. Analysts feel the real test will come when Greece hold its next sale of government bonds which will almost certainly happen in the coming weeks. This will be a crucial test for Greece as well as setting the tone for what is to come in the Euro Zone.

According to Moody's credit rating agency, disagreement among Euro Zone partners could undermine the deal: "The key credit question is whether market confidence will be strengthened by the support package, or whether it will be weakened by the contentious conditions under which this package was agreed."

Further concern that the EU's rescue plan could fail arises from concerns that EU leaders may have underestimated how great the problems facing the Euro Zone are. This particular plan was drawn up in response to the Greek crisis, however there are many other members who are struggling, most notably Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou must now prove that he can keep the nations finances afloat as failure to do so could spark a fresh crisis and trigger the use of the aid package. Looking forward the Euro will remain heavily dependent on smooth market conditions in the short term to immediate future.

Across the water in the US, Friday saw the news that the US GDP was revised downward to an annualized rate of 5.6% for the last quarter of 2009. It was revised down from 5.9% according to figures released by the US Commerce Department.

Forex News: U.K Retail sales rebounded

2010-03-26T16:45:00.004+05:30

In the UK retail sales rebounded more than economists forecast in February with the biggest jump since May 2008 as Britons raised spending on goods from electrical items to auto fuel. Sales rose 2.1% from January, when they slumped by a more-than-previously-expected 3% in the longest cold snap for three decades. Excluding fuel, sales rose 1.6%, the most since June.

The increase in sales for February was led by an 11.2% jump at household goods stores, the statistics office said. Auto fuel sales rose by 9.1% and textile, clothing and footwear shops had a 1.1% gain. Food stores showed a 1.2% drop, the most since June 2008.

The January sales drop was revised down from a decline of 1.8% previously reported because of late returns of data from retailers, the statistics office said.

Next, the U.K.’s second-biggest clothing retailer said today full-year earnings rose 20% as it expanded Internet and catalog sales and sold more goods at full price in stores.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, presenting his budget report to Parliament Wednesday said that to start cuts in public spending before the recovery was assured “would be both wrong and dangerous.” The ruling Labor Party’s resistance to faster spending cuts have helped it narrow the lead of the opposition Conservatives ahead of a general election due by June.

Jobless claims fell last month at the fastest pace since 1997, though the number of people in work in the three months through January dropped to a four-year low of 28.9 million.

In the forex online market yesterday the Pound continued to decline against the US Dollar. It fell 0.50% to close at GBP 1.4811. At also dropped 0.10% against the Euro closing the day at GBP 0.8960.

Yesterday was day one of the two day EU economic summit being held in Brussels. News has emerged that all 16 Euro Zone countries have backed a financing plan to help debt-laden Greece. The plan will also include assistance from the International Monetary Fund.

The safety net would total up to 22bn Euros. It would apply only if market lending to Greece dried up. Euro Zone nations would grant co-ordinated bilateral loans, totaling some two-thirds of the funding, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said.

Greek PM George Papandreou called it "a very satisfactory" move. The president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, said the deal was significant "not just for Greece, but for the stability of the Euro Zone". He added that the deal should tell markets to "have confidence that the Euro Zone will never abandon Greece".

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he was "extremely happy that we've reached this deal", calling it "a right decision". The deal still needs to be backed by the rest of the 27-member EU. The Euro Zone had avoided seeking an IMF loan for Greece, preferring a European solution and anxious to maintain global confidence in the euro.

Chancellor Merkel has stressed the need to learn lessons from the crisis, saying that she wants a treaty change to allow sanctions to come into force should a Euro Zone country ever default on its debts. Mr. Papandreou urged EU leaders to act to stabilize the Euro.

The single currency hit a 10-month low against the US Dollar on Wednesday after a credit downgrade for Portugal, which is also struggling with heavy debts. The Euro reversed a three day slide against the US Dollar in trading yesterday, gaining 0.43% to close at EUR 1.3329.

Mr. Darling predicts growth in UK Economy

2010-03-25T17:30:00.004+05:30

In a highly political UK budget Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling has cut his growth forecast for next year to between 3% and 3.5%. He had earlier predicted growth would reach 3.75%. He stuck to his prediction the economy will expand by 1.5% this year.

The Chancellor also revealed that Britain's budget deficit will be smaller than the £178bn expected in the pre-Budget report. The UK will borrow £167bn this financial year and £163bn next year. The central issue in the Budget has been the deficit, which standing at 12% of GDP is one of the largest in Europe. It has made the handling of the nation's finances by Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Darling a key election issue
.
Uncertainty about the possible outcome of the General Election, due to be held on May 6th has weakened the Pound the international currency market. Polls have indicated that the Conservatives lead is narrowing, raising the risk of a hung parliament. This would make any proposed spending cuts more difficult to implement. Yesterday's budget postponed measures to curb the deficit until after the election is held.

Investors reckon that only after the election the next Government - whether Labor, Conservative or a coalition – will spell out in detail the scale of the cuts in public spending and rises in tax required to return the public finances to health. Credit rating agencies have indicated they will wait until this time to judge whether Britain deserves to keep its much-prized 'AAA' rating, a measure of a borrower's creditworthiness.

Out later today are UK retail sales figures. Last month figures were disappointing with a fall of 1.8% in sales volume. A rise of 0.6% is predicted this time.

In the forex online market yesterday the Pound dropped 0.81% against the US Dollar to close at GBP 1.4896. It also dropped against the Euro by 0.22% to close at GBP 0.8945.

Across the Atlantic, US orders for durable goods rose in February for a third month, while inventories and backlogs climbed by the most in more than a year, indicating the manufacturing rebound will keep propelling the U.S. recovery.

The 0.5% increase in bookings for durable goods was in line with expectations and followed a 3.9% gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment orders rose 0.9%, more than anticipated.

Business spending on new equipment, inventory restocking and a pickup in global demand mean companies like Boeing can look forward to sustained sales gains. A pickup in employment is still needed to broaden the expansion as the economy heals from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“Manufacturing has and will continue to drive this recovery,” David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said before the report. “Export demand will continue to grow, domestic orders continue to rise and the inventory liquidation cycle has stopped dragging on growth.”

Elsewhere in the US, new home sales fell unexpectedly in February to a record low as blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures depressed the market. Purchases decreased 2.2 % to an annual pace of 308,000, according to figures from the Commerce Department. The average sales price climbed by the most in more than two years.
The new-home market is vying with foreclosure-induced declines in prices for existing homes in an economy where unemployment is forecast to average 9.6% this year, close to a 26-year high. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said on Tuesday that it would take a “long time” to repair the housing market as the administration takes steps to overhaul real-estate financing and regulation.

Forex Market: New Home Sales data to be out today

2010-03-24T10:16:00.000+05:30

In the US figures for sales of existing homes fell in February for the third month indicating that the high unemployment level is hindering demand in the housing sector. Sales dropped 0.6% to a 5.02 million annual rate, the lowest level in eight months. The expansion and extension of a federal tax credit that helped to stabilize the housing market in 2009 hasn't taken effect so far this year due to continuing high unemployment levels.

Existing home sales were forecast to fall to a 5 million annual rate from a 5.05 million rate in January. Data on existing home sales, which accounts for more than 90% of the market, is compiled from contract closings and may reflect purchases agreed weeks or even months earlier. This is why many economists consider new home sales figures, recorded when a contract is signed a more accurate and timely reflection of the market.

Data on new home sales is due to be published later today. The Commerce Department is expected to report that the figure rose last month after slumping in January to the lowest level since records began in 1963.

While borrowing costs are low and prices are down, sustained jobs gains are the missing ingredient in promoting a rebound in the housing market. The unemployment rate which reached a 26 year high of 10.15% in October is projected to end the year at 9.5%.

Also out in the US today are reports for core durable goods orders. The figure is expected to climb for the third month in a row adding to evidence of a recovery in the manufacturing sector. The projected rise in durable goods orders would follow a 2.6% jump in January that was the biggest since July 2009.

The US Dollar in the forex online market continued to gain on both the Pound and the Euro in yesterday's trading. The USD rose 0.58% against the Pound to close at GBP 1.5020. It appreciated 0.71% against the Euro which closed at EUR 1.3468.

In Britain yesterday figures revealed that the UK's inflation rate dropped more than forecast in February. Consumer prices rose 3% from a year earlier, after increasing 3.5% in January according to the Office for National Statistics. On the month, prices rose by 0.4%.

The Pound rose against the Euro yesterday, gaining 0.14% to close trading at GBP 0.8964.

The inflation rate fell because of large downward movements on prices from items like toys, books and gas bills. UK gas prices have been cut three times in the last 12 months with the last cut seeing prices fall by 7%, saving the average household 55 Pounds or $83 per year.

Forex News: Greek Economy fallen into a vicious circle

2010-03-23T17:13:00.005+05:30

Yesterday saw the U.S. Dollar gain against all of its major counterparts in the forex online market except for the Japanese Yen as German Chancellor Angela Merkel told investors they shouldn’t expect a European Union summit due to be held in Brussels on Thursday and Friday of this week to agree on assistance for Greece.

The US Dollar gained 0.40% against the Euro overall yesterday, with the Euro closing at $1.3566. Against the Pound the US Dollar rose by 0.76% with Sterling closing at $1.5109.

The US report on existing home sales is due to be announced later today. Economists are predicting that the figure will fall for the third month in a row as unemployment remains close to 10%. Existing homes account for almost 90% of the housing market. It is believed that the extension and expansion of a federal tax credit for housing has not yet had the desired effect as the labor market remains depressed.

Across the water in Europe European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday that aid should only be given to Greece if it will include an element of stabilization for the 16-country Euro Zone as a whole. He also said it was of the upmost importance for other Euro Zone members to maintain fiscal discipline.

The the Greek Central Bank said yesterday that Greece's economy is in a "vicious circle" and this year it will contract more severely than the government says. The Bank of Greece said economic output in 2010 will fall by 2%, worse than the government's prediction of between 1.2% and 1.7%. The bank says the recession will be worse due to planned public spending cuts. The bank said that it approves of the government's strategy to bring down the country's budget deficit, but that the impact will be worse than first thought.

"The Greek economy has fallen into a vicious circle with only one way out: the drastic reduction of the deficit and debt," the Bank's annual monetary policy report says. The report warned that the Euro Zone's economic recovery remains fragile, having relied to a large extent on fiscal stimulus, which must gradually be reversed as it is leading to large budget deficits.

Greece's budget deficit last year was 12.9% of GDP, more than four times greater than the EU allows. Germany has irritated some of its European partners with its opposition to a financial aid package to help Greece overcome its debt crisis, believing that Greece can solve the problem itself.

Elsewhere in the Euro Zone, Germany's coalition government is reportedly planning a banking levy to protect taxpayers from the costs of bank bail-outs. Leading conservative politician Volker Kauder said the money would stop banks from relying on state-funded rescues.

The levy would raise "billions of Euros" from the financial sector, he has predicted. The German government dug deep into its treasury coffers to provide a €500 billion ($679 billion) rescue package to shore up the banking system late in 2008. The new proposal seems to be designed to dissuade banks from taking risks in future which would see them begging for more government hand-outs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been asked by the G20 group of wealthiest countries to examine how banks can best contribute to the costs of insuring themselves against failure. But so far countries have adopted a piecemeal approach to the issue.

Canadian Economy making a moderate recovery

2010-03-22T16:47:00.002+05:30

Last week the Euro fell against 15 of its 16 major peers as EU leaders appeared unable to agree a cohesive plan to bailout Greece. On Friday it tumbled 0.60% against the US Dollar closing trading at $1.3528. The previous day it had fallen as much as 0.93% against the USD.

Late last week Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou issued EU leaders with a one week deadline to come up with a concrete rescue plan for Greece and challenged Germany to abandon its doubts about rescue plans. Papandreou said he may turn to the IMF to overcome Greece’s debt crisis unless leaders agree to set up a lending facility before an EU summit due to be held in Brussels on March 25th and 26th. The EU commission President Jose Manuel Barrosa has urged immediate action on the matter and said the EU should spell out its rescue plan at the summit later this week.

Friday saw the release of Germany’s producer price index which remained unchanged in February after increasing by 0.8% in January. Market expectations had been for a 0.1% increase. Year-on-year Germany’s PPI fell 2.9% in February, versus a 3.4% decline in January.

Canada’s core inflation rate unexpectedly rose last month on higher costs for automobile insurance and accommodation during the Vancouver Winter Olympics. The increase will pressure the central bank to raise interest rates and drive the value of the Loonie higher. The Canadian economy is accelerating out of last year’s recession with retail sales also rising more than expected. Recent manufacturing reports also indicated rapid economic growth.

The speed of the rebound may change how fast Governor Mark Carney decides to raise the benchmark interest rate from its current record low level of 0.25%. He had pledged to keep the interest rate in place through June unless the inflationary outlook changed. The banks next interest rate decision is scheduled for April 20th.

On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.7%, the fastest since November 2008 and overall inflation was up 0.4%. Economists had predicted the monthly rates would be 0.3% for both total and core inflation. Retail sales rose 0.7% in January, as consumers stocked up on home improvement supplies before a federal tax credit expired. Wholesale sales rose at the fastest pace in three years in January and factory sales gained four times what economists had predicted.

During the middle of last week in the forex online market the Loonie traded within one cent parity with its American counterpart before dropping back 0.23% on Thursday as crude oil prices, the country's largest export fell. On Friday the Loonie opened at USD $1.0137 and fell back a further 0.31% to close trading at USD $1.0169.

US Dollar post gains against the Euro

2010-03-19T16:50:00.000+05:30

The cost of living in the US was unchanged in February, underlining the Federal Reserve’s prediction that inflation will remain low as the economy continues to recover. It is the first time the consumer price index did not rise since it decreased in March 2009 and followed a 0.2% gain in January according to figures released by the Labor Department in Washington yesterday. Excluding food and energy costs the core index rose by 0.1% in line with forecasts, capping the smallest year on year gain since 2004. Markets have remained very competitive with big retailers such as Wal-Mart keeping prices low as unemployment nears 10% and foreclosures mount. The lack of inflation is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest close to zero earlier this week.

Another Labor Department report yesterday showed fewer Americans filed first time claims for jobless benefits last week, for the third consecutive time, a sign that the labor market is improving. The number of first time jobless applications dropped by 5,000 to 457,000 in line with expectations.

Growth in the manufacturing sector is continuing, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in March at the fastest pace so far this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 18.9%, in line with expectations. Earlier this week figures from the New York Fed showed business activity in that region expanded for an eight straight month in March. Another central bank report showed industrial production increased in February for an eighth month and capacity utilization rose to the highest level in more than a year. Fed policy makers this week said the economic recovery is still constrained by unemployment and persistent weakness in real estate and pledged to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period.”

In the forex online market the USD gained 0.9% on the Euro yesterday fuelled by renewed uncertainty surrounding the proposed bailout for Greece. It closed trading at EUR 1.3607. Tomorrow US Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to deliver a speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention. It is expected that he will continue to defend the position of the Federal Reserve in relation to the bank's supervisory role.

In the UK, government borrowing could be less than forecast this financial year after better than expected figures for February. The UK government borrowed £12.4bn in February, less than economists had expected, according to figures released by the National Statistics Office yesterday. The figure for January was also revised sharply downwards, to £43m from £4.3bn. Borrowing in the current financial year has now reached £131.9bn, but analysts say the full-year total may be less than the government's £178bn forecast. Until recently, most analysts thought the government's borrowing forecast was too optimistic.

The borrowing figure for February was not as bad as some had feared, partly because of the rise in VAT at the beginning of this year and new taxes on bankers' bonuses. The government is also paying out slightly less in benefits because unemployment is falling. The figures will give a boost to Gordon Browns Labor government ahead of next Wednesday’s budget.
Sterling gained 1.1% on the US Dollar yesterday ending the session at USD 1.5245. It rose 0.31% against the Euro closing trading at EUR 0.8931.

Bernanke defends Fed small bank supervision role

2010-03-18T14:36:00.002+05:30

The Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernarke has said the central bank is best qualified to oversee the largest financial institutions and should retain its oversight of smaller banks as well. The Fed’s “wide range of expertise” makes it “uniquely suited to supervise large, complex financial organizations and to address both safety and soundness risks and risks to the stability of the financial system as a whole,” Bernanke said in testimony yesterday to the House Financial Services Committee. The hearing is assessing the merits of proposed legislation to overhaul financial regulation in order to prevent a repeat of the crisis that prompted taxpayer-funded bailouts of firms including CitiGroup Inc and American International Group Inc.

Bernanke and regional Fed bank presidents are opposing efforts by Congress to remove much of the central bank’s supervisory role, saying such authority complements monetary policy. Bernanke said the Fed’s role as a supervisor of smaller banks “provides useful information about the economy and financial conditions throughout the nation.”

Wholesale prices in the US plunged in February by the largest amount in seven months as a large drop in energy prices offset higher food costs. According to figures released by the Labor Department yesterday wholesale inflation dropped 0.6% in February, much larger than the 0.2% decline economists had expected. Excluding food and energy, prices edged up a slight 0.1%, in line with expectations.

The deep recession and weak economic rebound are keeping inflation at bay and giving the Federal Reserve leeway to maintain record low interest rates in an effort to build momentum towards stronger economic growth. While overall wholesale prices have risen 4.4% over the past 12 months, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, has risen by a much more modest 1% during the past year. Updated monthly core CPI data is due out later today. As food and energy prices which are quite volatile are removed from the core figure it a much better gauge of overall inflation and a better way to judge the overall change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The figure is expected to come out at 0.1%, from -0.1% last month.

Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, said much of the downward pressure on prices stemming from the nation's steep recession has yet to be felt. For that reason, Dales said the Fed will be able to keep interest rates low for many more months.

Other releases due in the US today are the unemployment figures showing the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time in the past week and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index. Unemployment figures are expected to be relatively unchanged from the previous figure 456k.

US FED Reserve to Maintain its Interest Rates

2010-03-17T16:38:00.006+05:30

Last night the US Federal Reserve announced that it would continue to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% while giving an indication that US economic recovery was gathering momentum. The Fed said that the labor market was “stabilizing” which is a more optimistic view than was voiced at the last meeting in January when the committee said only that deterioration in the labor market was “abating”. The banks hint that the economic outlook is becoming more positive has fuelled speculation that it will move away from its promise to keep borrowing costs close to zero and that rate hikes may come in the next several months.

The Fed has held the benchmark interest rate near zero since December 2008 to shore up the US economy and help it through the most severe global recession in decades. Last March it committed to holding rates very low for “an extended period”. The US economy resumed growth in the second half of last year and grew by 5.9% in the last quarter.

The US Dollar fell against both the Euro and the Yen in the forex online market following the announcement. It opened the day trading at 1.3671 against the Euro before dropping to 1.3762 by the day's close. It closed at 90.31 JYP having started the day trading at 90.41 JPY.

Two factors believed to have contributed to the Fed’s interest rate decision included housing starts data and import price data, both of which were announced earlier yesterday. Housing starts in the US fell in February as record snowfall in parts of the country hampered construction. Also fewer building permits were issued signaling that demand is slackening.
Builders started construction on 575,000 new homes last month. This is a decrease of 5.9% on the previous month's upwardly revised figure of 611,000. Increasing numbers of foreclosures are making it more difficult to clear backlogs and are discouraging new construction.

A separate report showed that the price of goods imported into the US dropped more than expected last month, indicating few signs of inflationary pressure from abroad. The import price index fell 0.3%, its first decline in seven months. The current lack of growth in the labor market that could stimulate demand in the housing sector as well as the lack of inflationary signals contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at its current level. The producer price index is due to be announced later today with a drop of 0.2% expected. This figure serves as a warm up for the consumer price index which will be published tomorrow. This figure will be closely watched as any increase in consumer prices is key in terms of future rate hikes.

Later tonight Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify, along with former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, on a link between Fed Bank supervision and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington. These speeches are always closely watched as they can contain important indicators for the future direction of interest rates.

Impact of the US National Capital Long Term Purchases report on the Greenback

2010-03-16T16:41:00.003+05:30

The US National Capital Long Term Purchases report was published yesterday. This indicator represents the difference between foreign investments in the US and US investments abroad and demonstrates foreign confidence in the US economy. Figures showed that Net foreign purchases of long-term securities slowed markedly in January according to the Treasury Department. Total holdings of equities, notes and bonds increased a net $19.1 billion in January. This is down from $63.3 billion in the previous month. The figure had leaped to $126 billion two months ago, but was then cut to half.

The Dollar in the forex online market closed down significantly against the GBP in the wake of this news. It started the day trading at 1.5774 against the Pound but slid to 1.5044 at the close of the day. It also dropped against the Euro, although not as significantly, opening trading at 1.3762 before going on to close at 1.3758.

Elsewhere in the US manufacturing in the New York region expanded in March for an eighth straight month, indicating factories are sustaining production and lifting the U.S. economy. The index plunged in December but has since recovered. The report showed orders, sales and employment increased in March, a sign that manufacturing gains may last for months and help spur the rest of the economy. The Empire State index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it is seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's March national factory survey due out in two weeks may show. In February, the ISM manufacturing index inched lower to 56.5 but continued to point to solid growth in the factory sector.

Industrial production unexpectedly rose in February, due in part to gains in demand for computers and semiconductors that signal the pickup in U.S. business investment is being sustained. Production climbed 0.1%, the eighth consecutive increase, as utility use and mining increased according to figures from the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization or the proportion of plants in use, climbed to 72.7% from 72.5%. The gauge averaged 80% over the past two decades and suggests inflation will remain low. The amount of spare capacity is among reasons analysts anticipate Fed policy makers will reiterate a pledge to keep interest rates low. The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates near zero when they are announced later today.

Before the Fed Rate is announced the Building Permits and Housing Starts figures for the month of February are due to be announced. The housing sector had a big contribution to the downturn in the global economy and is now showing signs of a slight recovery. Building permits dropped to 620K in January, they are expected to be down to 619K; housing starts are expected to drop from 590K to 570K.

Canadian Dollar hits 7 months high against the Greenback

2010-03-15T16:55:00.004+05:30

Last week saw the Dollar retreat on most fronts. The week ended with the USD down 2.07% against the Euro and down 2.25% against the GBP. The week ahead will be dominated by US announcements, chief amongst them being the American Fed rate decision, due out on Tuesday at 18:15 GMT. An absence of job growth and few signs of inflation are reasons why Federal Reserve policy makers may decide to keep interest rates near zero.

Later today at 1300 GMT the Treasury International Capital Long Term Purchases report will be announced. This gauge represents the difference between foreign investments in the US and US investments abroad and shows foreign confidence in the US economy. The figure leaped to $126 billion two months ago, but was then cut to half. This time, it’s expected to stand at $38 billion.
In Canada, the outlook was positive as more jobs than expected were created in February and the jobless rate fell to a 10-month low, cementing Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s view that the economic recovery is under way. The Canadian dollar surged after the report, strengthening to its highest level since July 2008-the Lonnie closed trading standing at $1.0191 against the USD on Friday. Employment rose by 20,900 last month, the fifth gain in seven months, Statistics Canada said. The rate of unemployment fell to 8.2 percent.

Over the weekend both the US and Canada moved in to daylight saving time. This is expected to have a significant impact on the forex online market for the next two weeks as the major sessions between the US and the UK will overlap for five hours a day instead of four. During this time traders will have less time to react to data released in the British market before US data is released and can expect to see increased levels of volatility in the market.

Despite of Growing Trade Balance Loonie dips down

2010-03-12T15:26:00.002+05:30

The U.S Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts after a report on U.S. trade indicated the global economic recovery may be slowing, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets.

The U.S trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly by 6.6% in January, as demand for foreign oil and automobiles dropped. The deficit fell to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December as Americans imported the fewest barrels of crude oil in a decade. Exports fell 0.3%, the first decline since April, on fewer shipments of commercial aircraft and autos. In addition, the U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed to $18.30 billion compared with $20.57 billion in the same month last year.

Across the border Canada’s trade balance grew more than expected in January to 0.8B, as higher prices for commodities such as gold boosted exports, while imports fell. According to the figures released by Stats Canada January's surplus was the largest since March 2009. The pace of growth in exports slowed, as volumes fell 0.3%, on the back of smaller sales of autos as well as machinery and equipment. The Canadian dollar has risen about 25% against its U.S. counterpart over the past 12 months, making the country’s goods more expensive abroad leading to its decline in exports. However, this was offset by a 0.8% jump in prices, led by industrial goods and materials including precious metals, aluminum and alloys.

Despite beating market expectations, the Canadian Dollar fell against 14 of its 16 major currency counterparts in the forex online market, as the event was overshadowed by the unforeseen 6.6% fall in the U.S trade deficit. The Loonie weakened as much as 0.7% to C$1.0322 per U.S. dollar from C$1.0292, prior to announcement of the trade balances.

At noon today (1200GMT), Statistics Canada will release the unemployment rate for February. Last month, the number of employed Canadian’s increased by 43,000, more than three times market expectations – pulling the unemployment rate down to 8.3%, its lowest level since May of last year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%, as the market predicts that number of employed people will rise by 17,500, supplying a strong week ending for the Canadian dollar.

EUR surging high against the Greenback

2010-03-11T14:15:00.001+05:30

The Euro surged to a 2-day high against the U.S. dollar yesterday, as a wave of risk demand swept the markets in the wake of upbeat economic data from both the United States and China. After suffering losses against several of its major counterpart yesterday, the USD continued to fall as the dollar index traded at 80.441 this morning, down from 80.484 late last night.
Later today (1330GMT) the U.S Department of Labor will release its first Unemployment Claims report after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls. The market predicts that the, jobless claims will show a slight improvement – a drop from 469K to 452K, pushing the U.S dollar higher.

Also out today (1330GMT), the US and Canada will simultaneously release their trade balances. This double-feature release always triggers action in USD/CAD at the forex online market. For a third month the U.S trade deficit is predicted to widen slightly from 40.2B to 40.9B, as imports are expected to have grown faster than exports. North of the boarder, the market forecasts that Canada’s trade deficit will cross into a surplus of 0.3B.

Yesterday, the USD/CAD touched on a 5 month low, as the Canadian dollar continued to rise for the ninth straight day against its neighboring U.S. currency - the longest streak since 2004. The Loonie continued to trade at its strongest level in almost two months as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, neared $82 a barrel. Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release the nation’s unemployment change. Last month, the unemployment dropped to 8.3%, following a rapid surge in jobs of 43,000. The market expects that the number of employed people will increase by 17.5K in February, holding the unemployment rate steady at 8.3%

Across the Atlantic, the Pound fell for a third day against the Euro and the U.S Dollar as U.K factory production unexpectedly dropped in January for the first time in five months, signaling that manufacturing sector is struggling to shake off the nation’s longest recession in history. The office of National Statistics announced yesterday that manufacturing production fell 0.9% between December and January, against market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Following the release of the report, the Pound tumbled against 15 of its 16 major currency counterparts. The GBP fell 0.4% against the U.S dollar to touch on $1.4934, and slide 0.5% down against the Euro to hit a near three month high. This disappointing drop in factory production adds to economists’ speculation that U.K. gross domestic product will be weak or may even be negative for the first quarter of this year. The GBP/USD closed at 1.49819, down 0.114% from its opening price.

Britain's Trade deficit widens

2010-03-10T16:53:00.003+05:30

Britain's goods trade deficit with the rest of the world unexpectedly swelled in January to reach its widest level since August 2008, fueling concerns about the strength of the country's broader economic recovery. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics reported that Britain's trade deficit widened to 7.987 billion pounds from 7.010 billion in December, well above market expectations of 7 billion, as lower sales of chemicals and other commodities prompted a steep slump in exports. This disappointing figure will most likely fuel policy maker's concerns that the sharp depreciation in the value of the Pound has not led to the expected increase in exports. Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said yesterday that Britain’s economy has shown a “disappointing” response to the weakness of the pound, which has fallen about a quarter in the past three years on a trade-weighted basis. Government Officials want gross domestic product to refocus on exporting as they try to entrench Britain’s recovery. The deterioration in the global trade balance was the direct result of a 6.9% fall in exports, the biggest decrease since July 2006; while there was speculation that the Britain's unseasonably harsh winter could have hampered the movement of goods, according to officials there was no firm evidence to support this theory. Imports fell just 1.6%.

Following the release of this disappointing news, the GBP slipped as much as 0.2% against the U.S Dollar and was trading down 0.9% on the day at $1.4957. After closing at $1.49991 yesterday, the Sterling plunged another 0.54% this morning to touch on $1.49176 in the forex online market.

Later this morning (930GMT), the Office for National Statistics will announce the U.K's manufacturing production for January. After increasing 0.9% between November and December of last year, the growth in manufacturing production is expected to slow, with the market expecting a rise of 0.3% between December and January.

Also later today (1900GMT), the U.S Treasury Department will release the Federal Budget Balance. While it is no secret that the U.S government is in serious debt, last month the size of the budget fell to a more acceptable level of -42.6B. This month, the market predicts that the deficit will to surge back up to 207.5B, weighing heavily on the value of the U.S dollar.

Tomorrow, both the US and Canada will simultaneously release their Trade Balance. This double-feature release always triggers action in USD/CAD. The American deficit is expected to remain high at around 40 billion, while Canada is expected to turn from a deficit of 0.2 to a surplus of 0.4 billion.

Later this afternoon (1800GMT), the European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet will speak. As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, Trichet has more influence over the Euro's value than any other person, and so his words will be carefully listened to. Today’s speech, held at the the inauguration ceremony of the Language of Money in Frankfurt, will be followed by a second, held at Institute of Economic Policy Research in Stanford, this Friday.

Japanese Yen soaring high against the EUR

2010-03-09T17:25:00.004+05:30

After closing down against the USD, for the 6th time out the past seven weeks, the Euro appreciated against 11 of its 16 major currency counterparts in the forex online market following French comments that helped aid risk appetite. Following the meeting between the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, the French President reportedly vowed to help Greece if needed and pledged to crackdown on market speculators targeting the country. The EUR/USD, however, has been having rather mixed reactions and continues to remain within its consolidation phase as the highly traded pair has been unable to rise toward last Wednesday’s highs of 1.3735.

After meeting with both the German Chancellor and the French President, the Greek Prime Minister will travel today to Washington D.C to meet with President Barak Obama.

Yesterday morning, Germany announced that its industrial productions rose in January as energy output surged throughout the unseasonably cold winter, helping to offset a collapse in the construction activity. Germany’s recovery from the recession froze at the end of 2009 and the coldest winter in the past 14 years is not helping to heat up the country’s economic recovery. While Industrial Production came out below market expectations of 1.1%, the 0.6% rise between December and January indicates that Germany could be resuming its path towards economic recovery. The euro was little changed after the report and traded at $1.3654.

The Japanese Yen rose against the Euro, snapping a two-day drop, on speculation that Japanese companies are bringing home overseas earnings before the nation’s fiscal year ends this month. The Yen appreciated against all of its 16 major currency counterparts following China’s foreign-exchange regulator statement that speculative capital is flowing into the country, fueling optimism the funds will also boost neighboring economies. The Yen rose to 122.58 per Euro early this morning (6:38 GMT), from 123.13 per Euro in New York yesterday when it dropped to 123.90 per Euro, the weakest level since Feb. 23. Japan’s currency gained against the US Dollar, jumping from yesterday’s 89.99 to 90.31 this morning.

NFP Results help Greenback to March ahead

2010-03-08T16:18:00.003+05:30

Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the highly anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change, marking the end of one of the busiest weeks for the forex online market this year.

While the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls (referred to as NFP) declined for the 25th time in the past 26th months, the world’s largest economy shed a smaller-than-expected 36,000 jobs throughout February - to a seasonally adjusted 129.5 million. For over the past year, this vital economic indicator has consistently showed a drop in the number of employed Americans. While last month analysts predicted that the NFP would re-enter positive territory and the number of employed Americans would increase by 10K, the Non-Farm Payrolls continued to fall throughout January by 20K.

Economists had predicted that the NFP for February would fall by an additional 56,000, pushing the unemployment rate up by 0.1% to 9.8%. However, Friday’s NFP showed that U.S employers cut a smaller than expected 36,000 jobs throughout February, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 9.7% - bolstering views that the labor market is on the brink of a full economic recovery.

The dollar posted its biggest five-day gain versus the Japanese Yen in two weeks, as risk appetite returned to the market following the better than expected NFP. Last week the greenback rose 1.5% to 90.28 Yen, from 88.97 on February 26th. Following the announcement of the NFP, the USD gained as much as 1.76% against the yen, the biggest intra-day move since December 11th of last year. The volatile pair closed at 90.265, up 1.3% from the day’s open.

The Canadian dollar posted its biggest weekly gain in two months versus the greenback as the improvement in its largest trading partner’s outlook could provide a boost for Canada’s economy. The USD/CAD pair fell 0.19% on Friday, as the Loonie rose to a six-week high of 0.972USD. Later today (1315GMT) will publish the number of Housing Starts for February - the number of new residential buildings on which construction was begun during the previous month. Economists expect 190,000 starts, annualized basis, up from 185,600 the previous month.

Will the ECB lend covered loans to financial institutions?

2010-03-04T14:49:00.003+05:30

The Euro rose 0.64% to $1.36938 against the US Dollar yesterday as Greece unveiled a new austerity package. Since news broke of Greece’s 300bn Euro debt, the single European currency in the forex online market has been tumbling against its major counterparts – striking a 10 month low against the dollar, this past Tuesday.

Yesterday the Greek government unveiled an austerity package worth 4.8bn Euros -a host of tax increases and spending cutbacks. Greek government officials hoped this will bolster the Euro in international markets and convince European leaders that they are doing enough to merit a possible bailout.

Retail Sales in the 16 country zone slipped in January, raising new concerns about the strength of the area’s economic recovery. According to Eurostat, sales volume within the Euro Zone fell 0.3% from December and was 1.3% lower than in January 2009. While the monthly drop in sales was weaker then the market expectations of -0.5%, economists warned that sales could continue to fall in February.

The weakness of this data cemented expectations that the European Central Bank will keep its benchmark interest unchanged at its current record low level of 1.0% (announced later today at 1245GMT). The announcement will be followed by a press conference and there is speculation that the ECB may announce that it will lend covered bonds to financial institutions as part of a strategy to increase collateral. The press conference will be closely watched by traders as it has the potential to cause huge volatility in the market due to the off the cuff format.

Across the Channel the British Pound rose across the board, appreciated against 13 out its 16 major currency counterparts – including gaining a record 0.89% against the USD, to close at $1.50959. This abrupt increase came after the Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 58.4 from 54.5 in January. The UK dominant services sector expanded sharply to more-than-a-three-year high in February, boosted by strong new orders and business activity- adding evidence that the first-quarter GDP grew at a faster pace than in the final three months of 2009. According to senior economists at the Markit, this latest piece of data highlights the underlying trend that in the private sector remains positive, and is on course to deliver a quarterly expansion above 1.0% in the first quarter. According to economists, this positive survey will reinforce the expectation that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will not be extending its £200bn quantitative easing (QE) program (1200GMT).

At noon today, the BoE will announce whether or not it will raise its benchmark rate from its record low level of 0.5%. Analysts predict that the central bank is unlikely to raise change interest rates, as any raise in the cost of borrowing could jeopardize the country’s fragile economic recovery.

In Anticipation of BOE and ECB's rate decission

2010-03-03T16:29:00.003+05:30

Early this morning, Germany released its monthly retail sales report. Despite a predicted drop of 0.5%, retail sales were unexpectedly stable for January, while December gains were revised upwards modestly- fueling hopes that consumer supported recovery may emerge within the coming months. This will be followed by the publication of the entire Euro Zone’s monthly retail sales for January, predicted to show a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month. With no other important news coming out for the rest of the day, investors will turn their attention to tomorrow’s impeding ECB rate announcement. Once again, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, is expected to maintain the minimum bid rate at its current record low level of 1.0%.

The ECB’s rate decision will be preceded the Bank of England’s announcement of its overnight rate. The BoE is expected to keep its key lending rate at its current record low level, despite signs that Britain is emerging from the recession at a faster pace than previously anticipated. While the country’s GDP may have grown 0.3% (revised) for the fourth quarter of last year, analysts predict that it is highly unlikely that the central bank will opt to exit its “easy” monetary policy so quickly.

Yesterday, the Sterling plunged to a new 10 month low against the greenback in the forex online market as speculation continued to increase that neither the Labor nor the Conservative party would win an outright majority in Parliament in the coming June election- obstructing efforts to cut the country’s historically high budget deficit. After slipping 1.045% on Monday (at one point diving a record 3% to a $1.4784, its lowest level since April 2009), the GBP continued to fall against its American counterpart yesterday – deprecating an additional 0.2314%, to close at $1.49607.

Despite increasing chances of a “hung” parliament in addition to a plummeting currency, U.K consumer confidence jumped in February to a two-year high. The index of consumer sentiment increased 6 points from the previous month, to a new level of 80.

Yesterday, the U.K released its construction PMI, showing a fall from its previous level of 48.6 to 48.5 (a number greater than 50.0 indicates expansion, while number below shows contraction). Early this morning (930GMT), the U.K will release its Service PMI- while this report is the last PMI for the week, it is the most important. The service sector, which includes the financial sector, was improving up until last month. After falling to 54.5, analysts predict a slight increase of 0.5 points this month, to a new level of 55.0.

The U.S dollar weakened across the board, falling against 15 of its 16 major currency counterparts, following the release of the Bank of Dallas Fed Chairman’s statement that borrowing costs should continue to remain low until the economy picks up- which according to him “won’t happen for some time”.

Later today (1315GMT), the U.S will release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. While generally considered a predictive index for Friday’s highly anticipated Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, the ADP is expected to show a drop of 15K. With Payrolls have declined in 24 out of the past 25 months and economists are predicting another decline of 40,000 in February.

The Pound is tumbling down against the Greenback

2010-03-02T18:08:00.003+05:30

After a relatively slow end to last month, the forex online market is set to be hit with a fresh wave of volatility within the next few days, as the month of March kicks off with four central bank’s rate announcements.

Yesterday the Canadian Dollar surged against its American counterpart, on the back of higher than anticipated GDP. The GDP beat expectations and rose by an annualized 4.0% in the fourth quarter of last year fueled by an increase in retail sales, consumer spending, exports and robust housing sector. The USD/CAD plummeted from a session highs of 1.0575 to hit a new session low of 1.0475. The loonie appreciated a total of 1.04% yesterday against its U.S counterpart, to close at $1.04106.

Across the Atlantic, the pound tumbled to a new 10 month low as fears continue to grow that the UK will have a hung parliament. The currency fell 1.6% against the greenback, dropping below the $1.5 mark, for first time since May, as the Labor party’s majority narrows. The Pound suffered across the board sliding to its lowest level against the Euro since early last December, as well as hit a one-year low against the Japanese Yen of 132.07 and plumbed its weakest in 25 years against the high-yielding Australian Dollar.

Despite a better than expected manufacturing PMI, the Pound brushed the news that the manufacturing sector remained at its previously reported 15 year high of 56.6. Out later today, the construction PMI is predicted to show to that house price have continued to rise in the last seven months, however, the rate of increase is expected to have slowed from 0.6% in January to 0.3% in February.

Greenback sliding against the EUR and the Yen

2010-02-25T19:22:00.002+05:30

In reaction to the news that the FOMC would be keeping its benchmark interest rates exceptionally low for some time, the greenback slide against both the Euro and the Yen.

In addition, despite signs that the U.S housing market was beginning to recover, sales of New Homes fell to its lowest level on record- further fueling the dollar’s decline against its major currency counterparts.

Purchases of new homes within the U.S tumbled below expectations to an annual pace of 309,000, signaling that the added extension of the government tax credit may not be enough to revive demand.

This report further highlights Fed. Chairman Bernanke’s prior comments that even though the economic situation of the U.S is making a promising recovery, homebuilders continue to face intense competition from foreclosed properties that are continually driving down the prices in the market, while at the same time robbing the demand for new homes.

The result of which causes a chain reaction –decrease sales of new homes leads to a decrease in demand for construction, thus a decreased amount of employees in that field – directly effecting the level of employment for the country.

Following the release of Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, and pessimistic U.S. Home Sales data - the U.S dollar plunged against its major counterparts. The EUR/USD broke a session high at 1.36250, and closed at 1.35371, up 0.18% from the day’s opening price at the Forex online market.

Today is the second half of Bernanke’s testimony of Congress; in addition, the U.S will release the Unemployment claims for last week, expected to drop to 461K, from the previous week’s 473K joblessness claims. Also out today (1330GMT), the monthly Core Durable Goods Order.

Orders have been revised to the upside in the past month, from 0.3% to 1%; while, Core orders have been revised to 1.4%. The positive trend is expected to continue, with a rise a rise of 1.6% in orders and 1.2% in core orders. This figure doesn’t touch the consumers, but has a long term impact on the economy.

Greenback sustains its bearish trend

2010-02-24T19:49:00.003+05:30

Consumer confidence in the U.S fell sharply in February, plugging to its lowest level since April 2009. After reaching a 16-month high, of an upwardly revised of 56.6 this past January, the CB Consumer Confidence index sank a record 11 points to 56.0, as Americans turned more pessimistic about job prospects and the U.S economy.

For the seventh consecutive month, home prices in 20 U.S cities rose in December, signaling that the housing prices, concerned to be at the center of the worse economic recession since the Great Depression, are begin to stabilize.

Yesterday’s S&P/Case-Shiller Indexes showed that home prices increased 0.3% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis- increasing more than expected, and matching gains seen in last November. While the index reports that housing prices were down 3.1% from December 2008, this decrease is has been the smallest yearly change seen since May of 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller indicator came one day ahead of New Homes report.

Two months ago, this leading indicator took a dive, plugging to a new low showing everybody that the housing sector is heavily depended on government aid- since then, it has not been able to return to its previous levels. Last month’s low number of new homes sales is predicted to be followed by a slight increase this month, analyst predict sales to edge up to 354K. While the New Homes sales indicator generally has a big impact on the market, the report will most likely be overshadowed by Bernanke’s testimony.

Despite a drastic fall in consumer confidence yesterday, the greenback was able to maintain its bearish trend against its European counterpart, hitting as low as 1.34952. Although throughout the course of the day, the highly traded currency pair managed to bounce back slightly, the closing at 1.35118, down 0.65% from its opening daily price of 1.36001. Conversely, the greenback dropped a total of 1.09% against the Yen as investors flocked to the safe haven status of the Japanese currency in trading sessions yesterday. The USD/JPY plugged a drastic 1.4% before leveling out and closing at 90.194.

With the most significant economic indicators being released today revolving around the U.S. economy; the Dollar is likely to see some heavy volatility against its major currency counterparts, especially against the Euro and Yen.

Today, forex online investors will want to pay careful attention as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to begin his two will begin his two day annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on monetary policy before Congress. In anticipation of the speech, the dollar index, which measure the US unite against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to 80.788 in today’s Asian afternoon session from 80.874 in late North American trading Tuesday.

Following last Thursday’s unexpected rate hike for emergency bank loans, anticipation is high for any new news regarding the state of the U.S. economy. Positive sentiment will likely lead to major gains for the greenback, while If Bernanke’s statement “discourage an early monetary tightening policy” the dollar may likely be forced to forfeit some of last week’s heavy gains.

EUR/USD Unable to erase all its weekly losses

2010-02-22T12:57:00.001+05:30

The USD soared across the board on Friday, as the dollar index reached an eight-month high of 81.342 in the forex online market.

The greenback rallied against its most traded peers, following release of the FED’s announcement, late last Thursday night - to boost the benchmark interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%.

The Fed’ also announced that “the typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans will be shortened to overnight from March 18. These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities.”

The Fed policy makers went on to state that “The moves do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.”

However, despite the Fed’s statement, the currency markets interpreted this unexpected move as a signal that the US is ready to exit its currency Easy (lose) Monetary Policy used to combat the financial crisis.

Following the Fed’s decision of a rate hike, the US core CPI came out below expectations, and even ventured into negative territory with readings showing a fall of 0.1% from the previous month. The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is showing few signs of inflation.

For the fifth straight month, the consumer-price index increased 0.2%, led by higher fuel costs. However, excluding energy and food, the core CPI unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter.

For the 6th week in a row, the dollar posted weekly gains against the Euro – the longest streak since a sixth week period ending during the summer of 2000. After plunging 0.788% in last Thursday’s session, its lowest price against the greenback in nine months, the Euro managed to regain some of its prior losses against the USD, increasing by 1.192% on Friday.
However, despite a remarkable recovery right before the week’s end, the EUR/USD was unable to erase all of its weekly losses, and closed the week at 1.36111 - down a mere 0.0279% from last Monday’s open.

Last Friday, the EU saw the release of several key economic indicators, including the monthly German PPI, which declined slower than expected. Germany’s Producer Price Index dropped 3.4% year-on-year in January, compared the 5.2% fall in the previous month.
On a monthly basis, the indicator rose 0.8% in January, compared to the previous fall of 0.1% in the preceding month, and a 0.3% expected.

A rise in output helped German manufacturing activity, expand at its fastest pace since June of 2007, indicating a healthy resumption of growth in the EU’s leading economy.

A flash estimate of the Market composite purchasing managers' index (PMI), which surveys both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 55.4 from 54.6 in January, with activity expanding at its quickest pace since August 2007. The manufacturing sector PMI surpassed expectation with a reading of 57.1, a dramatic increase from January’s 53.7. While the service sector PMI came in below expectations, it still remained in positive territory, growing for a seventh consecutive month.

Following the release of these key German figures, the EU announced the Flash manufacturing PMI as well as Flash Service PMI for the entire 16-single currency bloc, reflecting similar movements as the German PMIs. While the euro zone’s manufacturing sector recorded its best month in the past two and half years (out at 54.1, versus expected 52.8 and prior 52.4), the Service sector expanded at a slower pace than expected, out at 52.0 versus expected 52.6 and prior 52.5.

Early this morning, the Euro managed to take back all of the ground lost last week to the USD, as the Asian markets appeared to prefer risk on options- the EUR/USD squeeze as high as 1.36525. Out tomorrow, is the German Info Business Climate – this major survey of 7,000 businesses has been steadily rising. Last month’s 95.8 score is expected to be followed by 96.3, continuing the steady uptrend seen throughout the past year.

The Dollar Index gained nearly 1%, as the FED raised interest rates to 0.75%

2010-02-19T12:10:00.002+05:30

For the first time in three years, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly increased the discount interest rate by 0.25bps. The dollar rallied across the board on this surprise move, including climbing to a nine-month high against the Euro.

The greenback headed for a sixth week of gains against the single European currency as the central bank took another step to withdraw from the unprecedented measures it used to halt the financial crisis.

Immediately after the release of the Fed's statement, the EUR/USD tumbled to a new low of 1.3444, from 1.3568 - plunging a total of 0.9% over the course of yesterday's Forex online session. The greenback traded at 91.90 yen from 91.81 yen after earlier advancing to 92.09 yen, the highest since Jan. 12.

The Fed surprising decision to raise the benchmark interest rate will current enhanced speculations that the US will withdraw its stimulus measures ahead of other developed countries - further fueling the dollar to appreciate.

This unexpected rate hike comes in the wake of the yesterday's release of a powerful string of significant economic data. The US January’s PPI, reporting an increase of 1.4% (core +0.3%) from December -this 1.4% rise in prices paid to factories, farmers and producers followed a prior 0.4% between November and December of last year.

The PPI reports shows significant inflationary pressure from higher commodity prices – crude oil prices rose by 9.6% last month and natural gases increased by 25.5%. Later today, the US will release its CPI – generally considered less volatile than the PPI, the January’s Consumer Price Index is expected to show an increase of 0.3% from the previous month, versus a 0.1% rise between November and December of last year.

Moreover the number of Americans filling for first-time unemployment insurance unexpectedly shot up by 31,000 last week, as the number of initial jobless applications hit 473,000, versus predicted 440K. Despite an increase in sales, companies are still reluctant to hire, and may demand more and stronger evidence that indeed sales are increasing and that the market is beginning to recuperate.

Yesterday’s sequence of powerful economic indicators for the US concluded with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The report showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region expanded in February for its sixth consecutive straight month, as orders surged to its highest level in more than 5 years – further exemplifying how factories are leading the economic recovery. The index fell in line with expectations, rising to 17.6 this month from 15.2 in January.

Recession Continues to steal jobs across the British Island

2010-02-18T15:49:00.004+05:30

U.K jobless claims unexpectedly jumped this past January to the highest level since April 1997, as the recession continues to steal jobs from businesses across the British Island.

Yesterday morning’s Claimant Count Change reported that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose to a record 1.64 Million, increasing by a drastic 23,500 claims from the previous month.

Last month the number of joblessness claims had dropped by 14.6K – this month, economists were expecting unemployment claims to continue to fall by another 9.6K. Despite this increase, the unemployment rate stayed as expected at 7.8%.

In regards to salary, the average earnings index rose a dismal 0.8% last December over the year (1.2% excluding bonuses), versus expected 1.2% - the lowest recorded yearly change in salaries.

Despite the disappointing job figures, The GBP saw little change in the Forex online market trading, after the release of the worse than expected claimant count, trading at $1.5770 down 0.115% from the day’s opening of $1.57882.

Moreover, the Bank of England meeting minutes were released and showed that BoE policy makers agreed unanimously pause their £200 billion bond purchasing program.

Tuesday’s bullish trend for the GBP/USD took a turn for the worse, as the combination of the BoE vote to suspend its asset purchase program along, push the sterling down 0.744% against the greenback - the pair closed at $1.56647.

Early this morning, Britain’s bureau of National Statistics will release the Public Net Borrowing Figure – the difference in spending and income from public operations, central government and local governments.

British public expenditure is eyed by the opposition and by investors alike. After many months of extended borrowing, the British government is expected to report negative borrowing of 2.4B,something that could potential help the Pound regain some of yesterday’s losses.

UK Consumer Inflation soars above 3 pct

2010-02-17T15:53:00.004+05:30

Yesterday morning, the Bank of England released its CPI, showing that consumer inflation in the United Kingdom rose to an annual pace of 3.5% in January.

While Forex online analysts had predicted an increase of 3.6% in inflation, the actual rise of 3.5% still required the BoE governor Mervyn King to write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling – the BoE chief is required to write an open letter to the Chancellor when inflation misses its 2% target by more than a full percent.

The BoE had warned that the January inflation was likely to be higher than that of December’s 2.9% increase, as a temporary cut in the value-added tax expired at the end of last year, returning the VAT to its previous level of 17.5%. At the same time, core CPI, which excludes the cost of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, accelerated 3.1% in January, the fastest pace on record.

The Pound appreciated against the dollar, after BoE reported that British inflation hit a 14-month high in January. The GBP/USD pair hit a 1.57278 high during the European morning trading sessions – the sterling gained 0.4% against the US dollar following the release of the inflation report.

The release of the CPI index Coincided with news that shares in the leading British Bank Barclays surged 7.66% after beating expectations with the profits over 11£ Billion last year – also responsible for pushing the pound towards yesterday morning’s heavy gains. The GBP/USD closed 1.56651 yesterday, up 0.74% from the days open.

After a bumpy Tuesday, the Pound is buckled in tight for a very chaotic Wednesday, as Britain is set to release a string of important economic data, leading the pack is the Claimant Count Change.

While this number is generally considered a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health as consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions.

The Department of Statistics is predicting a drop of -14.6K in employment versus last month’s fall of -15.2K. Economists are also forecasting that the unemployment rate will remain at its current level of 7.8%. The highly anticipated employment figures will be accompanied by the result so the MPC Meeting Minutes as well as the Average Earnings Index, predicting to show a rise of 1.2% compared to the same three months last year.

Aussie got off to a strong start this week while China’s economy indicating expansion

2010-02-16T16:03:00.004+05:30

Yesterday, due to President’s day, the US government and Banks were closed and as a result, the US did not issue any new economic data. Today’s TIC Long-Term Purchases will be the first report this week issued by the US that could potential wipe out some of the greenback’s prior week gains against the Euro.

The TIC Long-Term Purchases, which represents the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period, increased last month, rising from 20 to 126 billion dollars. Analysts are predicting that while the last month’s elevated confidence in the US economy and the dollar probably won’t repeat itself this time, they are still expecting a the index to come out at 50.3Billion.

After finishing last week up against the greenback, the Aussie got off to a strong start this week and continued to increase against its major counterparts.

The Australian dollar continued to appreciate on speculation that China’s economic expansion may accelerate, thus boosting demand for commodities and other cross currencies may initiate satisfied Forex online trading. The AUD rose against all 16 of its most-traded peers after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch maintained their forecasts for Chinese growth even as officials cool lending to restrain price growth.

According to these two banks, economic growth in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, may continue expanding even after the Chinese central bank raised reserve requirements for lenders last Friday – as result Goldman kept its growth forecast at 11.4%, while Merrill held its at 10.1%. Following the release of this news, the Aussie appreciated 0.2% against the USD.

The highlight of the Asian session this morning was the release of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which shed light on the RBA’s prior decision to leave key interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. While the central Bank repeated that further rate hikes may occur in the near future, there was little change in the Australian currency.

Following the release of the RBA minutes the AUD traded at 0.89625USD from its opening price of 0.88951USD.

Decline of the Euro Continues

2010-02-15T14:47:00.007+05:30

For the third week in a row, the Euro suffered heavy losses against its major currency counterparts in the Forex online market. The single European currency tumbled to a new 8 and half month low against the US dollar at last Friday’s closing, following the release of worse than expected German and Euro Zone GDP figures.

This unexpectedly weak economic data came at a particularly bad time for the 16-nation common currency, as European Governments continue to struggle to determine a solution for the Greece debt crisis, as well as stabilize financial market fears over the instability of the Euro, which have been driving the currency lower and lower.

After the EU economic summit, last Thursday, offered few details regarding its agreement to help Greece weather its financial crisis, the Euro struck $1.36880, tumbling 0.331% against the Greenback, from its opening price that day.

The 16-nation common currency slid as a statement issued by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits.

Unfortunately these losses were not the last for the single bloc currency, as the Euro continued to plummet against its major counterparts throughout Friday. Europe string of alarmingly bad news began with Germany’s Prelim GDP, as the report showed that quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.0%, despite previous expansion in the two prior quarters GDP, and an optimistic previous expansion in the two prior quarters GDP, and an optimistic predicted forecast of a 0.2% increase. The German prelim GDP was followed by a disappointing Flash GDP for the entire Euro Zone. While analysts had predicted that that the Euro Zone’s Q4 GDP, would continue to increase by 0.4%, as it had done in the previous quarter, the single currency’s GDP came out just 0.1% higher. Fear that the Europe’s economic recovery had stalled, and may be beginning to falter sent the Euro tumbling another 0.423% against the US dollar- the heavily traded pair finished off the week at low of 1.3601.

While weak European figures sent the EUR/USD pair sinking to a record 8 and half month low, the USD continued to appreciate against its major counterparts.

January sales at the U.S retailers climbed more than anticipated, as retail purchases increased by 0.5%, the third gain in the past four months. However, despite an increase in the Monthly Retail Sales, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 73.7, falling short of analysts’ prediction of 74.8 and a prior level of 74.4.

Friday’s mixed release of economic data showed that while American’s have increased their spending in the retail sector, consumer confidence fell illustrating that the recovery of household spending may be gradual.

Over in the Pacific, the Aussie surged to a week high after the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly feel and the Chinese bank lending rate increased. The AUD closed at 0.88759USD, up almost 2.27% from last week’s open of 0.86783.

This Australian positive economic data fueled the AUD to increase against the Japanese Yen- the pair shot up 3.19% from Monday’s opening price of 77.356 to Friday’s close of 79.825.

Early tomorrow morning (0030gMT), Australia will publish the results of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – after three consecutive increases in the interest rate, the late Australian rate decision disappointingly produced no rate hike. This report will explain why, and in no doubt will shake the Aussie.

Late last night, the Japanese government released two key economic indicators: the quarterly Prelim GDP and the yearly Prelim Price Index. Japan's economy expanded in line with expectations in the Q4 of 2009 – The Prelim GDP saw a growth of 1.1% in real terms from the July-September quarter, slightly better than expected 1.0% growth. The highly awaited Japanese Cabinet data also showed that GDP grew 4.6% on an annualized basis. Domestic demand added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in the latest quarter, while external demand -- exports minus imports --added 0.5 percentage points to growth. Additionally, the Prelim GDP Price Index, the broadest measure of prices in the economy, fell a record 3%. The Yen gained 0.133% following the release of these report, trading at 90.15USD from 90.03USD prior to the report.

Trade balance curved in the market Unbalance

2010-02-11T18:28:00.000+05:30

Early yesterday afternoon, the US and Canada simultaneously released their Trade Balance. The U.S December Trade Balance came out wider than expected – the deficit rose to -40.2B as imports surged more than exports.

Forex Analysts had predicted that the deficit would contract to 35.8B from its previous reported level of 36.4B, instead the US trade gap unexpectedly widened to its biggest level this year.

Even though exports climbed to their highest level since October ’08, this eighth consecutive rise in exports was trumped by an 8.4% increase in Imports (particularly petroleum).

The result of faster economic growth in emerging countries combined with a drop in the dollar’s value is allowing American goods are becoming more competitive and may in fact propel gains in sales overseas that will spur further gains in U.S. manufacturing.

On the other side of the 49th parallel, Canada also saw their Trade Deficit widen more than expected. As imports slightly outpaced exports, Canada’s trade deficit remained at 0.2B, versus the expected forecast that the trade deficit would shrink to 0.1B. The 1.7% increase in exports was slightly outpaced by a 1.8% rise in imports resulting in Canada's trade deficit with the world widening to $246 million in December from $201 million in November.

According to the Bank of Canada, the combination of low U.S demand and strong Canadian dollar are a “significant drag” on the economy. Governor Mark Carney has pledged to keep his benchmark lending rate at a record 0.25 percent through June to stimulate demand unless the inflation outlook shifts.

Following the release of both countries trade balances, the Canadian currency tumbled against the USD- the pair increased from the day’s open of 1.06651 USD/CAD to 1.0686; however, by yesterday’s close, the Loonie managed to regain some of its lost ground against its US counterpart- closing at 1.06265.

Across the Atlantic, the Euro continues to move away from its 8 month low against the USD, as speculations increase that today’s EU summit will shed light on a possible rescue package for Greece. With the EU holding their 1 day summit today, the EUR increased from yesterday’s close of 1.37336USD to a high of 1.37995 in Asian markets early this morning.

While the Euro continues to rise versus its American counterpart, the British Pound continues to plummet against the USD. Yesterday, the Sterling was hit hard as the BoE Inflation report forecasted low inflation for a long period, suggesting more quantitative easing ahead; the Pound plunged 0.88% from its opening price of 1.57088 to 1.55701, finishing off the day at 1.55974.

Yesterday, the Bank of England lowered U.K.'s economic outlook and forecast inflation to undershoot its 2% target. The central bank Governor Mervyn King also kept the door open for further quantitative easing.

Britain’s February Inflation Report depicts economic growth to reach around 3.2% in the second quarter of next year- smaller than the previous estimate of 4%. According the BoE, the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain and output is unlikely to return to a level consistent with its pre-crisis trend for a considerable period.

King forecasted inflation to exceed 3% in January, but estimates the figure to fall below the target quickly. Annual inflation had exceeded the central bank's 2% target in December for the first time since May 2009 and stood at a nine-month high of 2.9%. "It is more likely than not that inflation will be below the target for much of the forecast period, but the risks are broadly balanced by the end," the bank said.

Shortly midnight, Australia released its employment change for January as well as its current unemployment rate. With both numbers coming out better than expected - employment change increased to 52.7K versus expected 15.1K causing the unemployment rate to tumble to 5.3% versus expected 5.6% and prior 5.5% - the Aussie rose more than 1% against the dollar and the Yen.

The AUD/USD opened in Asian Markets this morning at 0.87506- after the release of the better than expected employment data, the pair increased 1.75% to a week high of 0.89040

USD survives steadily

2010-02-10T17:43:00.004+05:30

After one of the most volatile weeks in the Forex Market this year, this week got off to a slow start- however, today's busy events will sure put an end to this week's relatively smooth sailing.
The speculator news that the European Union may by coming to the rescue of its deficit ridden member, Greece, put the brakes on the EUR/USD downwards slide - causing the dollar to distance itself from last Friday's 8 month high of 1.3595USD/EUR. In hopes of containing the debt crisis that many fear could spread to Portugal, Spain, and Italy, the EU is meeting all Thursday in Brussels.

With risk appetite rising, the dollar also came under pressure versus the sterling, dropping to 1.5750 from Friday's 8-month high near 1.5530.After a slow start to the week, shortly after midnight yesterday the UK simultaneously released two interesting reports - the British Retail Consortium showed retail spending increased at an annual pace of 1.2% in January after surging 6.0% in the previous month to mark the slowest pace of growth in at least 15 years and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor home price balance index increased to 32% from 30% amid expectations for a drop to 27%.

These two reports were followed by the UK's awaited Trade Balance-despite expectations that the UK's trade deficit would contract slightly from its prior level of 6.8B to 6.6B, the deficit unexpectedly widened or December, slipping to a new low of 7.27 Billion Pounds. Following news of the increased trade deficit, the Pound continued to fall against its major counterparts –the EUR/GBP broke to a 3-week high- increasing from the day's opening level of 0.8755 hitting 0.8820 shortly after the trade balance was released.

Later today, we can expect more volatility in the GBP, as the UK will release (at 930GMT) its monthly Manufacturing Production. This major indictor of the economy remained unchanged in the past two months, disappointing the Pound. This time, a rise of 0.4% is predicted. An hour after the release of this report, the BoE will announce its Inflation report- an important quarterly event, in which the central bank projects the inflation and economic growth for a long time forward.

The Bank of England's February Inflation Report is likely to justify only modest policy tightening, with inflation on unchanged rates likely to be shown coming in above target at the end of the two year forecast horizon. On market interest rates, analysts think inflation will be projected below target two years out, with the BOE forecasts endorsing the view that only relatively small increases in Bank Rate will be needed to get inflation back on track.

While falling against both the Euro and the Pound, the USD managed to stay steady versus its neighboring currency- the CAD. However, this currency pair could come under extensive pressure today as both the US and Canada will simultaneously release their trade balance reports. This double hitter event typically ignites a volatile movement in the pair- however, which way the pair will move is yet to be seen.

With Canada's trade balance expected to be almost perfectly balance, analysts are predicting a small deficit of 0.1B, the US is predicting that vast deficit might contract slightly, from its previous level of 36.4B to an expected deficit of 35.8B. While a contraction in a trade deficit might appear as a positive indicator, this is not the case for the US. A contraction in the deficit would signify that foreign countries are less willing to sell goods to America in exchange for U.S dollars- resulting in a depreciation of the dollar.

Shortly after midnight (0030GMT), Australia released its monthly home loans – while analysts were predicting a fall of 4.8%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the number of home loans extended last December by 5.5%.

This report follows yesterday's Westpack Consumer Sentiment index which slipped 2.6% to 117 from 120.1 in the previous month – a reading above 100 means that optimists outnumber pessimists. While Australian Consumer confidence fell this month, it is still 2.9% above the December 2009 reading and 15.2% above its long term average.