Stock markets are rising? Look at the Big Picture!

With many of the primary stock markets reaching yearly highs, it would appear that optimism about the prospects for a global recovery is high. The increase in overall risk appetite in the Forex and the jump in stocks have been incredibly impressive.

According to the news reports, these shifts in sentiment have been driven higher by better than expected corporate earnings out of the US along with good economic data. But something is just not adding up for me, and I am not quite sure where to place my disbelief.

It is odd that just as the markets are flying, bond yields for the major economic countries, the US, Japan, England etc, are going higher. Now obviously this is due in part to trader speculation that once the recovery takes hold, these countries will have no choice but to start raising their low rates.

But what concerns me is the effect of quantitative easing that many of these countries employed. Funnelling money into the system at such a large rate as many of these countries had, will no doubt cause mild to moderate inflation – which would require lower rates. So what is going on?

Last week gave us a clue that all is not so rosy though. England reported a weaker-than-expected GDP figures for the second quarter – much weaker than expected to be specific.

Perhaps the Brits are not fudging their numbers like the Americans are – not that I know anything for a fact, but it wont surprise me to find that out in a few months.

This week's vast amount of economic data coming out of Europe and the US should help paint a better picture. I fully expect sugar-coating, but I know that the Forex traders will be keen to pick up on that.

Among the core numbers to look for this week are the US GDP and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Consumer Confidence and Housing Prices along with New Home Sales numbers are important, but this is where my scepticism is most pronounced as we have seen anomalies in these numbers in recent months and they are easier to manipulate – so keep a sharp eye out there.

I expect the general tone of this week's data to support the recent signs of improvement. It remains to be seen, however, whether the outturns will be sufficient to maintain the bullish momentum as we head into August. Short of very strong numbers, I doubt it will happen.

Look for a weaker week in the Dollar and look for the Aussie and Kiwi to be the beneficiaries of that.

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Dollar and Yen lose safe haven appeal, but not for the same reasons

As the Dollar and Yen lose their luster for now, partly due to positive news and partly due to political uncertainty (in Japan primarily, but to some extent the US), I want to take this opportunity to rant.

I have been involved in the markets for the better part of 15 years. I started my career as a stock broker and find myself now a staunch advocate of the Forex.

I have weathered turbulence in the markets, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” speech (which ironically sent the markets on the biggest rally in 50 years), the internet bubble burst and now the “biggest recession since the great depression.”

I lived through 8 US presidents, saw two of the greatest leaders – economically speaking – in Reagan and Clinton and saw miserable failures like Carter and the senior Bush.

But, in my life I have never witnessed such irresponsibility and lack of basic understanding of free market thought, as I have with the current president, Barack Obama.

Carter was a failure, not because he held such liberal policies as many would have you believe, he failed because he was weak, in domestic and international relations he was viewed as timid and non-confrontational.

Perhaps, had he been more assertive he would have succeeded in reforming the system to his liking – and I would be blaming him for killing capitalism. And, as much as people compare the two – Obama is not a Jimmy Carter.

We need to look at the core of the man - Carter was weak, Obama is strong. Carter had the support of the US Congress, but was not able to achieve, because he sought bi-partisanship which he did not get.

Obama does not care about what the other side thinks, as long as his side is on board it is fine. But Obama has another tool at his disposal that enables him to push his agenda through, without the help of the Congress, the Czar.

In the US, cabinet members need to go through a vigorous vetting and approval process by both branches of Congress. A Czar is not a cabinet member. First introduced by Ronald Reagan to head up the war on drugs, a Czar has broad powers to do – and answers only to the president.

Reagan created this role because he did not believe the drug war would go on for so long and therefore adding a cabinet post, a move that takes a constitutional amendment, would not be necessary.

Obama however has gone beyond this level, appointing 33 Czars, each with an average salary of $250,000 and annual budget for office and staff of over 10 million. This is the single largest expansion of governmental agencies ever – and the fun part is this is not part of the government as the Czars answer only to the president.

It is shocking – and it is why Obama is not like Carter – he has the power to achieve what he wants, whether congress says yes or no to the idea, he has a back door to his goals if he needs it.

I am not sure if the American public should be more upset at the wasteful 340 million plus that this group is costing them, or the fact that Obama has given powers to a group of people that subvert the system of checks and balances that has made America unique and safe from tyranny.

Congress gave Reagan the approval for this post for logical reasons - quick and decisive action was needed, and waiting for congress to approve each mission was pointless.

Obama has exploited this rule and it will be to the detriment of the US populace. Take for example the idea that his health czar is proposing – taxing the rich 5% to pay for health coverage for everyone else, or his employment czar, extending benefits to the unemployed by and relaxing the rules so that they do not need to be seeking employment while getting the benefits (their rationale for this: “it is a hard job market you know – it might demoralize the unemployed to have to keep searching for a job in this tight market”).

And just how do they pay for this unlimited benefit? You guessed it, taxing the rich. This makes no sense. Why penalize those who work and reward those that don’t? all you do is make the productive less ambitious to be productive and you make the non-productive dependant on a system that is willing to care for them indefinitely – so in turn there is less productivity by default.

In my opinion, you don’t need a stimulus that will give people money to do nothing; you need a stimulus that will spark production – as that is what will save the economy over the long haul.

For Forex traders and Forex Online enthusiasts what does this mean? It means the US is moving in the direction of China and Russia and Venezuela, in which there is a central government that controls all things. So what does this mean for the Dollar? Only time can tell, but it does not look too good.

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Forex News: Words say Everything - Its how you read them that changes the meaning

I was going to write yesterday about how the pattern in which the calls for the dethroning of the US currency are made always has a follow up, half hearted retraction.

I did not, partly because it was obvious and partly because this story is getting old and tiresome as a re-run of a TV sitcom from the seventies. This, however, was the case yesterday as China’s Central Bank calmed the markets by declaring that their monetary reserve policy (and keep an eye on that word “monetary”) has not changed.

What they did not say was that they back the sovereign Dollar and love the idea that 2 Trillion Dollars worth of their assets are invested in the Dollar, but we will go back to this in a little bit.

Forex online junkies can recall not too long ago, when the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) met, there was a call by the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, to establish a global bond system through the IMF as an alternative to the Dollar. Later on he “clarified” his point by saying “in addition to” the Dollar.

Not too long before that, was the Russian Finance Minister in Italy making a comment about how the world needs a new reserve currency as the Dollar “has become debt weighted” and a day later the statement again was “clarified” by Moscow which said that the Dollar is and will be the primary Russian reserve for a while (specifically because the IMF bond will take a few years to implement – but not many actually realized that).

This pattern of jab and retreat has played out time and again, and it is because the knee jerk reaction to the Dollars vulnerability and the second world’s absolute resentment of the US has caused conflict in Central Banks around the world.

The fact is, even the retractions are not retractions. Let me go back to the word “monetary” that the Chinese Central Bank used, and let us look at some facts. Now, while their policy might not have changed, being that the proportions of their holdings were left intact, their reserve policy as a whole has shifted to include tangible assets. And thus, the dollar dump has begun…

China, which held over 2 Trillion Dollars in Dollar related Assets in January – about 50% of their reserves, has been using those dollars to purchase raw materials, natural resources and precious metals. In fact, China has gone on such a spending spree, they now accounts for nearly 50% of Australia’s natural resource commodity exports, one of the reasons why Australia is not doing so bad considering the rest of the world.

It is not that the Chinese have changed their monetary policy – the proportions might still be the same, however they seem to have changed their overall reserve policy – opting for things rather than paper.

Russia is also playing this game, only 1 year ago they had about a 1/3rd of their currency reserves in the US Dollar with the total reserves that they had estimated at around 800 Billion. Today, Russia still maintains about 1/3rd of their reserves in the USD, but their overall reserves have shrunk to an estimated 500 Billion.

Oddly enough, their Gold, Platinum and Silver holdings have increase by about 250 Billion Dollars – meaning that they have been diversifying their overall reserves with commodities – just like the Chinese.

What does this mean for Forex traders? It means simply that there is a target on the USD – and while the US’s creditors are trying to find a way out, they need to do so delicately so, as not to disrupt the value of the US on the Forex – a weak Dollar does them no good.

But, as they continue to “diversify” their holdings, keep in mind that more Dollars get added to the market system – watering down the value and inflating the currency. I would anticipate a 5-10% minimum inflation rate in the US in the couple of years – I personally think it could get even higher than that.

As the BRIC’s throw Bricks and then claim ‘it was an accident” the next day – the plans are in the works to dethrone the Dollar. It is coming, be prepared.

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A little perspective please - Internal Polls in the US showed that Obama’s Honeymoon is Over

So with President Obama’s popularity waning, I thought I would take this opportunity to correlate the issues facing America right now and its affect on the all mighty Dollar.

As Forex online traders (and offline) we live and die, profit or lose, based on the Dollar, so this fine Tuesday morning in the latter part of June, 2009 is a great opportunity to reiterate that you cannot believe just words and that real knowledge truly is power in our business.

Yesterday internal polls in the US showed that Obama’s honeymoon is over. His social policies are unpopular and receiving criticism even amongst his own political party.

In his first six months as president of the largest economy in the world, he has virtually nationalized the banking sector, the auto industry and is now trying very hard to do the same to the healthcare industry, as I mentioned yesterday.

His Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, has been trolling the world giving speeches meant to boost the confidence that the investing world has in the Dollar’s value – and has been laughed at during these speeches in China, and most recently in Italy this past weekend.

North Korea is warmongering, Iran is blaming the US for their political unrest, Al Qaeda is threatening to use Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal on the US (should they get hold of it), Russia and China are openly calling for a new reserve currency on a daily basis and Brazil has removed the dollar as the primary currency used in trade with other countries. et, all the while we read reports that the economy in the US is rebounding and that things are getting better – well we need to look at these numbers to see just how good it is getting.

Monday, the US announced that the numbers of people on welfare have risen at the fastest pace since the recession began and are now at levels unseen since Bill Clinton’s presidency. Last Thursday they said that unemployment was at its highest rate in the US in over 30 years – hitting over 10% in 1/5th of the 50 states that make up the US and that interest rates are at the highest levels in close to a decade.

Let’s focus on these rates for a minute and how important they are – the interest rates set mortgage rates and personal loan rates – meaning, people looking to buy big have to pay more – and they are not buying and this is causing a trickle down effect.

Last week, the US government auctioned off 160 Billion Dollars worth of Treasury Bonds and Notes, and for the most part it was a success – even with the highest rates in years. But look closer, the record debt sale that went on saw the US Federal Reserve (a.k.a. THE central bank) as the biggest customer for these bonds.

This means simply that the US bought their own debt and is paying a larger price for it as well. And it is specifically this information which have brought Obama’s numbers down sharply – it’s one thing to preach fiscal discipline and take over industry after industry in the guise of showing them fiscal discipline – yet it is completely another thing to put into practice something entirely different.

And this is where the US is right now - they are not practicing what they preach and as we saw in China, Italy, France and Germany, the US is being laughed at when they tell people that an investment in the US is a good investment right now.

We might hear the pundits telling us that everything is great in the US of A, but looking at it logically, the use of the Dollar as a long term investment tool is not looking that smart anymore.

We have seen on the Forex and watched online as the dollar has dipped and has lost value – the DAC index is off nearly 30% from its highs – this says volumes about the Dollar – no matter how much they try to show us that all is ok in the USA.

Be careful – and if you were like me, watch down under – their Dollars are looking pretty good in comparison.

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Cheers Turn to Jeers as D-day Nears!

EUR

The Euro gained early in Tuesdays session only to give it back later on as the US markets opened and investors began taking profits and returned to the safe haven Dollar in advance of Thursday’s US stress test release and the European Central Bank’s decision on interest rates and stimulus. The past few sessions saw the Euro benefit from the positive sentiment on the street as traders took advantage of good economic news to come out from hiding behind the stalwart Dollar and Yen. However, as Thursday’s ECB meeting comes close, investors who traded the Euro in recent days are cashing in and taking cover once more. We, forex online traders can expect to see strength in the Euro should there be signs that the ECB will not adopt and aggressive policy – a topic that has been widely debated in recent weeks and seemingly dominated the market news.

At 11:00PM GMT, the Euro was trading down .4% to the Yen to 131.88, down 1.1% to the Sterling to .8831, down .4% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.567, down 1.2% to the Australian Dollar to 1.7926 and flat to the Swiss Franc after an up and down session to 1.5102.

USD

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that it was his assessment that the economy is “turning the corner” and that the US could see growth in the second half of this year. This testimony in front of the US Congress contradicted his last month’s report when he declared that it could take until mid-2010 before any growth is seen. What should have been good news was muted by jitters over the release of the stress test this coming Thursday and an announcement by President Obama that he intends to raise business taxes by 5% in the short term to help cover the ever growing national debt. It is thought that 10 of the 19 banks that submitted to the US Treasury’s stress test will have to raise additional revenue in order to remain solvent, however to what degree these companies are struggling was the source of much debate on Tuesday.

At 11:20PM GMT, at broker trading boards, the US Dollar was down .7% to the Euro to 1.3315, up .22% to the Yen to 98.68, down .45% to the British Pound, down .2% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.1746, up .6% to the Swiss Franc to 1.1325, and down .8% to the New Zealand Dollar to .581.

AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates today at 3% after the members said that signs that the recession has grown in Australia are not present and in fact, there are positives that can be interpreted as strength. The Australian Dollar has benefitted lately as investors tested their risk appetite and moved to the higher yielding Aussie Dollar in order to lock in some larger profits.

At 11:40PM GMT, in addition to being up to the Euro, the Australian Dollar rose .45% to the US Dollar to .7421, up .65% to the Yen to 73.52, down .06% to the Pound to 2.034 and down .3% to the New Zealand Dollar to 1.2791.

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G20 – The dawning of a new world order.

The thing about big conferences involving world leaders is that everyone is so proper and polite in front of one another. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is lobbying the world for a new world order along with President Barack Obama. They are proposing a 1.7 Trillion Dollar global stimulus plan for the world to follow, the trouble is over the weekend news broke that the world is not into that idea. France, Germany, Spain, Russia, China, have all made statements questioning the idea of such a global spending effort – some classifying it as counterproductive.

The Canadian Prime Minister was on American Television on Sunday being very diplomatic in his discourse. He said that he needed to review the proposal and that certain things needed to be ironed out before a “meaningful discussion could be had on the issue” – in plain English, the G20 will not yield any fruit on Brown and Obama’s plans. The few things needed to be ironed out are this – FIX YOUR BANKS FIRST, SHOW US THAT THEY ARE GOOD AND SOLVENT, THEN MAYBE WE CAN TALK ABOUT YOUR IDEA.

The Online Forex world knows this to be true. And the erratic trading on the dollar and pound have proven that there are many skeptics out there with regard to the G20 and what it will produce. Aside from some smiley pictures, a few days in cloudy London and some good old Scotch, what can these leaders say they came home with? I do not believe they will come home with much.

It is going to be a slow week up until the summit on Wednesday – light volumes and erratic swings will be the norm (unless someone big makes a gaffe like Geithner or Brown did last week). I also believe that the world is in for a shock when they see what all the spending and currency manipulation has done to the two staple currencies, the Pound and the Dollar. The Pound used to trade at over $2 to the Dollar and now it is hovering around $1.40 – this is a big drop. And the US Dollar is almost at parity with the Canadian Dollar – this used to be the butt of many jokes about Canada back in the day when I first started out. But now the two are neck and neck – it used to be .60 cents on the dollar for the Canadian currency. Perhaps we are in for a new world order. Perhaps we are in the midst of history in the making.

Hang on.

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Geithner: "Proposal for Chinas world currency" | Pounds Stumbles | Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

USD

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that the US Dollar was likely to be the worlds reserve currency for a long time to come. And with this, he also said he was open to Chinas world currency proposal. The dollar reacted negatively as Geithner spoke, especially against the Euro which it had been up against until Geithner spoke. As investors began to digest the bank plan the US Treasury announced on Monday, many began to question the viability of the plan which increases US spending and taxpayer liability, and calls on private investors to join in the purchase of these assets with unknown value.

At 5PM GMT, the Dollar was trading down to the Euro .5% to 1.3534 after trading up to 134.95 when Geithner began to speak. The Dollar also fell to the Yen by ½ to 97.57 and to the Canadian Dollar by ½% to 1.2248. The dollar did manage a gain against the Pound to 1.4592, a .6% rise.

GBP

The pound fell after the Confederation of British Industries distributive trades survey balance fell to -44 in March from -25 in February. Analysts had expected a smaller deterioration to -35. The failure to achieve a fully covered Gilt auction, suggesting reduced demand for sterling assets, also weighed on the currency.

Gilt strategists blamed the auction's failure on market uncertainty created by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King when he said on Tuesday that the Bank of England could scale back its program of gilt purchases if they were especially successful in boosting the economy.

At 5:15 GMT, the Sterling was down 1.1% to the Euro to .9272, down about 1% to the Yen to 142.42, down 1 ½% to the Swiss Franc to 1.6394 and down 1 ¼ % to the Canadian Dollar to 1.7858.

Online Forex Chart Analysis: EUR/JPY

The persistent EUR/JPY rally of late finally met resistance late yesterday as equities eased off recent highs. We wonder if the JPY crosses will top out here towards the end of March as Japan gets set for a new financial year. Watch the 200-day moving average in this cross as an important technical level over the coming week.

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Forex Online Currency Analysis- This is EURO's Day | Increase in Unemployment in Britain | Bank of Japan’s Non-Move on Interest Rates

EUR

The Euro had an up day against the Dollar and Pound in advance of the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and in response to poor unemployment data coming out of Great Britain. In what could signal a change in sentiment the European equity markets have been doing better and the fortunes of the Euro have appeared to reverse.

At 5PM GMT, the Euro was trading above the psychological $1.30 mark against the USD at 1.3151; the Euro was also up strong against the British Pound to .9389 a 1.3% rise. The Euro also rose more than ½% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.6637, up ¼ to the Yen to 128.65 and up over1% to the Australian Dollar to 1.987.

GBP

The amount of unemployed in England rose at the fastest pace ever to a pre 1997 level of over 2 million. The numbers indicated that manufacturing jobs are being lost at alarming pace, sparking fears of an export slowdown. The British government’s assertion that a lower pound will support the export/manufacturing industry is being dismissed by investors that believe that only an increase in overseas demand can help the industry. Wednesday’s numbers have given credibility to this argument as Britons working in manufacturing, the staple of the export industry, have lost their jobs that at any other point since they began recording this data.

At 5:15 GMT, the Pound was down over 1/3% to the US Dollar to 1.3997, down ¼% tot the Aussie to 2.1153, down almost 2% to the Swiss Franc to 1.6283 and down 1% exactly to the Japanese Yen to 136.96.

JPY

Fallout from the Bank of Japan’s non-move on interest rates late Tuesday was muted as the aggressive moves of other Central Banks, notably the UK and Switzerland seemed to take precedence. The Yen slowed its decent, but still was weak in Wednesdays trading session even after the BOJ declared that they will be buying Japanese Government Bonds – which are now perceived to be a non-move considering that none of other major countries are buying Japanese Debt and the BOJ buying debt of their own country is considered to be a wash.

The Yen rose ¾% to the Dollar to 97.87, rose more than 1% to the Australian Dollar to 64.56, rose .8% to the New Zealand Dollar to 51.85 and fell ¾% to the Swiss Franc to 83.97 on top of its losses to the Euro and gains against the Pound mentioned above.

Get More Updates at: http://www.finexo.com/marketReview

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Dollar is Beginning to Lose its Luster

Ok, so the stock markets seem to be bouncing back, data releases seem to be telling a good tale and the dollar is beginning to lose its luster as online Forex investors move towards a more risky approach to their investing. I still believe there is a long way to go before we can call this crisis over – I still don’t believe we have hit the bottom yet. I would not be surprised at all to see the markets suck everyone in for a few more weeks- perhaps even a month, and then collapse once again. The problem here that everyone needs to see is that this “turnaround” in the economy came overnight – on the heels of a dismal employment report in the US. It was protracted based on a better than expected retail sales report – a report that does not take into account the fire-sales and going out of business sales that saw retail prices drop in some cases, by 80%.

Forex traders and the Forex Broker companies are smarter than that. Have you ever wondered why when the stock market’s fall the currency gets stronger and vice-versa? It is because the Forex tends to work more on economic logic than raw emotion. If people are losing money in equities, they look for a quiet and safe place to park their cash – and what better place to park cash than in Cash, or rather, in foreign currencies. Forex traders know that the economy is no beeter now than it was two weeks ago – and they are preparing themselves for the fall while in the mean-time, taking advantage of some good shot-term trading opportunities to earn some extra money.

We must not forget that the EU is in trouble and still cannot agree on anything related to a solution. What is good for France is not good for Germany and what is good for the West is not good for the (or available to) the East. It’s a problem being connected at the hip when economically when your individual economies are in need of different things. The US is not out of the woods by far. All of this money printing and debt issuing by the US government will come back to bite them, big-time. IF anything, these Trillions – with a capital “T” – have made recovery in the long term a difficult task because deflation can creep up at any moment. The worse situation is retreating to the stagflation days of the seventies after Nixon nixed the gold standard and made deficit spending possible.

History is there for us to learn from it. Why can’t our bright and educated leaders see that?

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Watch out: Dollar in a very erratic trading session | The Euro ended the week with one of its best weeks since the end of 2008 | The Sterling gained

USD

The dollar gained against the Euro and a host of other currencies on Friday in a very erratic trading session. As the vibe in the stock markets turned negative, investors returned the greenback as a safe haven. The equity markets had been sharply positive all week long, with US markets gaining roughly 9%, Forex investors had taken the opportunity to test their risk appetite, however Friday seemed to indicate a migration back to the US Dollar.

The Dollar did erase early losses brought on by gains in stocks after decent economic data and hints that the US banks might not be as bad off as everyone thinks. Online Forex nalysts believe that the recent rally here for the USD against the Euro is all about the stock market. Investors are trying to gage whether or not the downslide in the economy is nearing a bottom – at this point, any good news can spur a rally. But the rallies are short lived because the sentiment is still quite negative.

At Friday’s close, the Dollar was up .15% to the Euro to 1.2926, up .3% to the Japanese Yen at 97.98, and unchanged versus the Swiss Franc at 1.185. The Dollar did fall to the Aussie and Kiwi, closing down ½% to the AUD to .6579 and down nearly 1% to the NZD at .5248.

EUR

The Euro ended the week with one of its best weeks since the end of 2008. Much of the gains the Euro made this week were based on investors testing their risk appetite, as stated above, however news from European Central Bank executives also played a part in the Euro’s rebound. Last week, several ECB board members declared that the crisis was being managed more aggressively and that a light at the end of the tunnel is in sight.

The Euro closed up ½% to the Yen to 126.68, up .16% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5321, down .4% to the Australian Dollar at 1.9641 and down .35% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.6441.

GBP

The Sterling gained widely on Friday as investors appeared to be giving the battered UK currency a break on Friday. Much hype of the UK’s bank bailout plan and overall negative sentiment about the state of the British economy has kept the Pound down in recent weeks. As investors retreated from more risky positions on Friday they appeared to find value in the Sterling.

The Pound closed up ½% to the dollar closing at 1.4 flat and up .3% to the Euro at .9231, up ¾% to the Yen at 137.18 and up ½% to the Swiss Franc to 1.6591. The Pound did fall slightly to the Canadian Dollar to 1.7803 and to the Australian Dollar to 2.1271.

ChartAnalysis: USDCAD

The recent inability of the USD/CAD to stay firm above the 1.30 level coupled with significant tension in the fundamentals has put pressure on the currency pair. The rising trend line looks like the next key support level below the 1.2675 line of support. Another way to play for a stronger CAD is with a CADCHF or EURCAD trade. USDCAD will need to see 1.2950 again to give bulls renewed hope here....

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US Fed's cautious optimism about the future helps Euro and Pound

The US Dollar fell against the Euro and Sterling yesterday as Forex traders and investors gained confidence which translated into an increased risk appetite as the US government moved to shore up the economy. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates at 0-.25% announcing that they will use all tools at their disposal to continue fighting the economic downturn. The Fed declared yesterday that the economy has indeed worsened since their last meeting in December, however that additional cuts to the key interest rates were unwarranted at this time.

In what was seen by the broker trading community as a signal of strength in action, the Fed said that they will continue to fight the economic woes at the source by supporting the functions of the financial industry by purchasing large quantities of mortgage backed securities, CDO’s and agency debt. This specific announcement pleased those trading and investing in the daily FX markets who fled the perceived safety net of the greenback for some risk and potentially greater reward. The Euro rose to slightly above $1.33 against the dollar while the Pound continued its climb trading above $1.43 – a more than 1% increase.

The Japanese Yen, another perceived safe haven currency also experienced losses today against the Euro and Pound as Forex investors digested the countries influx of cash late Tuesday to shore up businesses and financial companies. The move is widely seen as Japan’s way of curbing the recent strength of the Yen which is believed to hurt exports, the driving force of the Japanese Economy. The US Dollar rose one percent to just over 90 Yen, coming close to a key support level of 90.20. A move above this mark could signal a greater gain for the us currency against its Japanese counterpart. The Euro also made gains on the Yen, rising more than 1% to 119.02 as investors traded the relative safety of the Yen for the promise of greater returns from a Euro rebound.

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More trouble for Europe means gains for the US

The flight to safety in the dollar was enhanced on Friday when the greenback reached a 22 year high against the British pound and a six week high against the Euro. Considering that the US economic woes are significant, this highlights how bad the Euro and British economic outlook is – at least from the perspective of the Forex traders. The pound sunk 1.4% to 1.361 against the dollar and the Euro fell nearly ½ a percent to 1.292 against the US currency. The tumble started after data released on Friday showed that the British economy tightened at a greater rate than was expected, 1 ½ percent to be exact, which confirmed on paper that the British economy was now officially in a deepening recession.

The Yen also made significant gains against the Euro and Pound on Friday, with the Euro closing down ½ of a percent to 114.66. The status of the US and Japanese currencies as a safe bet amongst Forex Brokers underscores the dire shape of the overall global economy. It is not a matter of who is doing well anymore; rather it is a factor of who is not doing as bad. The trading and investing communities are just looking for something to cling to as the Daily FX charts are becoming more and more confusing to traditional technical and fundamental traders.

The surge, or should it put, strength of the dollar was also helped by the US Treasury Secretary designate, Timothy Geithner, who commented in front of a Senate panel that a strong dollar was in the best interest of the US, prompting broker trading firms to speculate that once confirmed, he will do all he can to prop up the greenback. Considering the mountain of debt that the US economy needs to climb out of which grows each day by billions of dollars, it is difficult to see how any one man can accomplish this feat.

The week was capped off by a peculiar stunt by Canada’s ruling conservative party which pre-announced (it was an intentional leak) that when it reports its budget deficit projections on Tuesday the 27^th, it will show a $52 Billion (US) shortfall the next two years and will not return to positive territory for another five. The move was seen as Canada’s way of minimizing the short-selling and thus overall decline of the Canadian dollar in the Forex trading arena. Aside from this, we can read between the lines into the actual numbers and see a truly disturbing picture. Canada’s economy, and currency for that matter, are intrinsically tied to commodities, oil and metals to be specific.

A projected shortfall of this magnitude means that Canadian economists and actuaries are not too optimistic about a short term global recovery that everyone is hoping for. What this simply means is that Canada is looking at a two year period of global declines followed by a three year recovery period. This essentially puts the crisis in a situation where its affects last five years, a really gloomy scenario that Canada is using to set policy. We hope they are wrong.

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Dollar Shining After Obama Inaugural

The British Pound Sterling is falling today, down to a 7 ½ year low against the dollar and the Euro has fallen to a new six week low against the currency of Obama as well. Banking woes, economic uncertainty, lack of faith in England’s new bailout plan are all contributing to the downslide while the US is tapering some of its inauguration day losses while Forex Brokers are scrambling to find something that is stable in what has been a highly volatile week. At the moment, the Sterling is trading against the dollar at $1.3718, a 1.2% drop bringing it back to 2001 levels.

But it is not only the US Dollar that is benefitting from the British currency’s woes, the Yen, much to the chagrin of the Japanese government which wants to keep the currency from getting too strong, reached a record high against the Sterling today – up over 1% to 123.53. In what Forex Brokers see as a response that is not in line with the wants of the Bank of Japan, the Yen is gaining strength against the majors – also hitting a 13 year high against the dollar. Today, the BOJ will be coming out with a plan to boost lending to businesses (aka commercial paper) in order to thwart ill effects of this credit crisis. Look for the YEN to pare some its recent gains as the BOJ’s hidden agenda is to stem the growth of the YEN in order to protect exports as well.

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