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Friday, November 7, 2008

BOE cuts massive 150 bps and sends GBP on a roller coaster ride. US employment report out today likely an ugly one.

Risk aversion rose yesterday in the late US session, but no big follow through in Asia so far. JPY crosses bounce back a bit.


US Oct. ICSC Chain Store Sales out at -0.9% YoY vs. +0.7% expected
• Australia Oct. AiG Performance of Construction Index out at 36.4 vs. 31.8 in Sep.
• Switzerland Oct. Unemployment Rate rose to 2.5% as expected and vs. 2.4% in Sep.
• Germany Sep. Trade Balance out at 15.0B vs. 13.5B expected


Events Today:
Norway Sep. Industrial Production (0900)
Germany Sep. Industrial Production (1100)
Canada Oct. Unemployment Rate and Net Change in Employment (1200)
• US Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (1330)
• US Oct. Unemployment Rate (1330)
US Sep. Pending Home Sales (1630)
• US Sep. Consumer Credit (2000)

Today a pivot day

Despite the foreboding ahead of the US employment report, our "sixth sense" feels a bit uncomfortable in the shortest term looking for big further moves in risk aversion right here. The JPY crosses showed a lot of stability overnight considering the ugly close in the US and the AUDUSD consolidation has been very shallow, suggesting a background bid in risk. Still, let's see how the US employment report comes in and the market's reaction to it for a better read on where we may be headed next week. Today could be an important pivot day for risk.


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