Major Headlines and Forex Recommendations

Friday, December 19, 2008

Here are some market updates I read on various forex sites and blogs.

Market Movements

  • 2-Year interest rate swaps showing the largest one-day drop (15 bps.) in two months... a sign of risk-willingness.
  • Our Global Top100 CDS Price Index is edging lower. Now at 123 bps., but still very elevated.
  • The White House is still undecided wrt. offering a bail-out to the big3 auto makers. Combined, they will close 59 factories over the next month, putting a maximum pressure on Obama, when he takes office.
  • In order to discourage inflow of deposits and get the banking system to start lending again, the ECB yesterday announced that they will cut the rate on deposits to 1.5% by the 21st of January. This move is halting the EUR’s advance.

Forex Recommendations

  • EURUSD topped out at 1.4719. EURGBP at 0.9557. EURCHF at 1.5370, under pressure.
  • EURUSD Rejected at 200-day MA (1.4700+) 1.4310 then 1.4385 resistance now. 1.4000 test next?
  • EURJPY 128.00 resistance. Looking for 125.00 if equities weak…
  • USDJPY 90 is key resistance now. May be set for test of low again if equities weak.
  • GBPUSD Looking weak again if it stays below 1.5200. 1.4885 structural support.
  • USDCAD Bullish above 1.2000. Break back above 1.2160 next key for more upside


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