As the Fire of Rome Start to Burn – Stand Back or You Might Too

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

What can I say about the US that will not make it seem as if I am truly pessimistic about their economy? The President had a bad summer, the Obama honeymoon is not only over, but according to the polls the divorce might be in the works.

Never before had the US seen a president with 70% approval ratings at the beginning of his term, drop below 50% in the first year – and this is a country that had Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, George W. Bush and Gerald Ford as their leaders.

So fine, much of the issues that Obama has is a result of a targeted campaign against his health care reform – but it runs deeper than that and his policies will prove to be a deterrent for growth in the US Dollar in the coming months and years.

I recall very clearly how Obama complained for the first three months of his presidency how he inherited a 1.5 Trillion Dollar debt from his predecessor, GWB. But how can he explain how this debt has tripled in the first eight and a half months of his presidency? And how can he explain how the projections are that within three years, the overall debt will be on par with the overall GDP of the nation – that is to assume the GDP stays as is which is unlikely in this depressed economic climate.

I was doing some back reading over the weekend and came across some interesting facts. Prior to the inauguration, Obama asked Bush to release 500 Billion of the 1 Trillion Dollars of the stimulus package so that it would be available for him on day one to start putting to use.

Aside from this, Obama and the Democratic led congress voted for the Trillion Dollar bailout which helped no one but Wall Street bankers get Christmas bonuses. So by my calculation, Bush left him with a half a Trillion Dollar debt – Obama and his party had a hand in the other Trillion.

How does all this play into the Forex Online? With Gold inching closer to $1,000 per ounce, a milestone, we see the Dollar collapsing – Gold is the new greenback – the new safe-haven if you will. The interest on the debt the US now carries is more than the annual budget for the US’s five largest cities – and this number is growing and growing.

With Treasury auctions coming up nearly every week now, by year’s end the US will surpass in debt, the entire GDP of the South American Continent. The Chinese are having issues of their own and this will play a big role in how those auctions go – end result will be the US Dollar will suffer as demand shrinks and reality of a country that is so mired in debt and political upheaval sets in on everyones mind.

In my existence I have seen protests and demonstrations against US policies – but I have never witnessed this level of internal unrest – not from anarchists but from middle class housewives and business men and law abiding citizens.

The scenes are disheartening and reinforce my idea that Forex traders need to stay away from the Dollar until the US can sort its issues out – both domestically and economically.


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