Forex News: Past Trading underpinning for Future

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

The Euro strengthened yesterday to its highest level in more than three weeks versus the U.S Dollar after news broke that Greece would be receiving an international rescue package worth as much as €45 billion ($61 billion) to help it avoid a default. Following the announcement of the of the “rescue plan” the single currency rose to $1.36906, appreciating as much as 1.4%, its biggest gain since last September. The Euro’s gain, which was its third increase in the past three days, sent the Dollar Index tumbling 1.3% to its lowest level since March 18th.

The 16-nation Euro-Zone finance ministers reported that they would offer Greece €30 billion in three-year loans in 2010 at about 5% interest. An additional €15 billion would come from the International Monetary Fund, resulting in what could possibly be the largest multilateral financial rescue ever attempted. The Greek official said the government would decide within a few days whether to ask for the aid, depending on whether market interest rates subside. For the time being, Athens will try and refinance its public debt on the bond market. This week, the Greek government will hold another bond auction that will surely be a test if the Euro Zone’s recent bailout plan has restored faith in the Greek bonds.

By yesterday’ close the single European currency has retreated from its near three week high against the USD as Greece prepares to sell €1.2Billion in 26 and 52 week bills. The Euro closed at $1.35924, down 0.71% from the day’s high in the forex online market.

The Japanese Yen rose, ending three days of losses versus the EUR, on speculation demand for Greece’s short-term debt will be weak at an auction today. Japan’s currency appreciated versus all 16 major counterparts after Asian stocks dropped, weakening demand for riskier investments. After closing yesterday at 126.119, the EUR/JPY continued to fall throughout this morning’s trading session, touching on a low of 125.690. Similarly, the USD/JPY fell during this morning’s Asian session- tumbling as much as 0.64% from yesterday’s closing price of 93.161, to hit a session low of 92.563.

Yesterday, the U.S posted a budget deficit for a record 18th straight month in March, reflecting gains in government spending to bolster the economy. The excess of spending over revenue declined to $65.4 billion last month, compared with the $220.9 billion reported last month, according to Treasury Department figures released yesterday in Washington. A deficit that’s forecast to reach a record $1.6 trillion this fiscal year illustrates the challenges facing President Barack Obama and Congress as they struggle to stimulate the recovery while keeping the budget gap manageable. Deterioration in the government’s balance sheet in coming years raises the risk of higher interest rates. Tonight, U.S Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak. He will continue to speak tomorrow at the Joint Economic Committee where he will lay out his economic outlook.

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