Forex News: China, Unemployment and Oil conspire against the Dollar

Thursday, July 2, 2009

The US’s non farm payrolls are due out later on today and for all their trying, the US government has been trumped by a private firm in revealing these numbers.

The street expected about 360,000 jobs were lost, a nice decline and a sign that things might be getting better. However, ADP, the largest payroll processing service in the US, reported that 470,000+ jobs have been “removed from the payrolls” of the companies that ADP services.

Keep in mind that ADP does not service everyone – there are other services and many small businesses do the payrolls by themselves. So it is not out of bounds to think that this number, 470,000 will be higher. For the Dollar, a higher number can be damaging but it is not the only threat to the greenback.

Yesterday, China called for an open debate at next weeks G8 Summit on the viability of another global reserve currency being established. This is a blow to the US efforts to keep the debate out of the IMF and World Bank boardrooms, as they and Britain control the flow at those institutions.

The voices are becoming louder and the masking of their intentions are becoming less – China has now entered the point of no return, the point at which they have firmly committed themselves towards establishing a new world financial order, in which the Dollar is no longer king.

The Dollar fell on this news and the shock from ADP – ironically, the US stock markets rose late in the day. Forex Online traders and Forex chat rooms were abuzz with the news, however the US governments official stance is that ADP’s numbers are NOT official and do not necessarily reflect the non-farms payroll number.

And while the US stock investors seemed to gobble this up, those Forex online traders did not. And I say: good for them.

This is the story that does not die, and it won’t for a while. But as we see the US’s hopes for a second half recovery fading – we should look at the opportunities that are out there for us.

I am still bullish on the Aussie and I am starting to like the Canadian Dollar. As Oil prices rise, as tensions in the middle east drive that precious commodity up, I see opportunity knocking. And I hope everyone is there to answer the door with me.


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