Watch out: Dollar in a very erratic trading session | The Euro ended the week with one of its best weeks since the end of 2008 | The Sterling gained

Monday, March 16, 2009


The dollar gained against the Euro and a host of other currencies on Friday in a very erratic trading session. As the vibe in the stock markets turned negative, investors returned the greenback as a safe haven. The equity markets had been sharply positive all week long, with US markets gaining roughly 9%, Forex investors had taken the opportunity to test their risk appetite, however Friday seemed to indicate a migration back to the US Dollar.

The Dollar did erase early losses brought on by gains in stocks after decent economic data and hints that the US banks might not be as bad off as everyone thinks. Online Forex nalysts believe that the recent rally here for the USD against the Euro is all about the stock market. Investors are trying to gage whether or not the downslide in the economy is nearing a bottom – at this point, any good news can spur a rally. But the rallies are short lived because the sentiment is still quite negative.

At Friday’s close, the Dollar was up .15% to the Euro to 1.2926, up .3% to the Japanese Yen at 97.98, and unchanged versus the Swiss Franc at 1.185. The Dollar did fall to the Aussie and Kiwi, closing down ½% to the AUD to .6579 and down nearly 1% to the NZD at .5248.


The Euro ended the week with one of its best weeks since the end of 2008. Much of the gains the Euro made this week were based on investors testing their risk appetite, as stated above, however news from European Central Bank executives also played a part in the Euro’s rebound. Last week, several ECB board members declared that the crisis was being managed more aggressively and that a light at the end of the tunnel is in sight.

The Euro closed up ½% to the Yen to 126.68, up .16% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5321, down .4% to the Australian Dollar at 1.9641 and down .35% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.6441.


The Sterling gained widely on Friday as investors appeared to be giving the battered UK currency a break on Friday. Much hype of the UK’s bank bailout plan and overall negative sentiment about the state of the British economy has kept the Pound down in recent weeks. As investors retreated from more risky positions on Friday they appeared to find value in the Sterling.

The Pound closed up ½% to the dollar closing at 1.4 flat and up .3% to the Euro at .9231, up ¾% to the Yen at 137.18 and up ½% to the Swiss Franc to 1.6591. The Pound did fall slightly to the Canadian Dollar to 1.7803 and to the Australian Dollar to 2.1271.

ChartAnalysis: USDCAD

The recent inability of the USD/CAD to stay firm above the 1.30 level coupled with significant tension in the fundamentals has put pressure on the currency pair. The rising trend line looks like the next key support level below the 1.2675 line of support. Another way to play for a stronger CAD is with a CADCHF or EURCAD trade. USDCAD will need to see 1.2950 again to give bulls renewed hope here....


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