The Coming Storm!

So the world is beginning to think that it is all over and done with, that the financial crisis of 2008/9, which conjured up that of the 1930’s is waning and growth will soon return to the land. And for a while, I was thinking the same thing – and beginning to scare myself into believing what the politicians and biased TV pundits (analysts) have been saying. But not anymore.

Rumor has it that we all should be on the lookout for something that I warned about several months back – and the rumors are coming out of the Federal Reserve in the US and Bank of England as well.

It seems as if much work is being done (behind the scenes so as not to cause an alarm), to stave off a commercial real-estate meltdown, which resulted from the drop in property prices coupled with lack of capital and consumer spending.

Their efforts could quite possibly be thwarted by a large spike in foreclosure rates in the US and England. Many of these properties had mortgages on them that were a part of the Wall Street derivatives market – the same sort of investment tool that many credit with causing this crisis to begin with, but on a much grander scale.

According to the Wall Street Journal, $700 Billion worth of these commercial mortgage backed securities are in serious trouble – and a collapse of them would cost close to five times that number to manage.

The effect that this would have on Forex trading is profound as just as the economy seems to have recovered from the tsunami, the aftershock comes and sets back all that has been done.

The US Dollar and British Pound are very vulnerable, especially since they have spent so much time and effort playing down the amount of damage being done – while all along the crack was actually getting wider and spreading.

Not only could a meltdown in this sector, which is inching closer to reality, harm the economies – it will adversely affect the currencies in the Forex market, as governments spend more money they do not have to fix it.

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Global Recession - Is it really Over?

The Central Bankers of the world met this past weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Known for hoards of Deer, Elk, hunters and hamburgers, this relatively small frontier town became the center of the financial world for a few days – and will be widely remembered from this day forth as the place in which the global recession was officially declared over.

Just don’t tell those 14% of industrialized workers who are without work, don’t tell those farmers who are selling items at 2/3rds less than what they were last year because of trade restrictions, and don’t tell the Central Bankers themselves, because in the end – the meeting and declaration was more politically motivated than factually motivated.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the EU Central Bank President, gave a speech that can be defined as optimistic, or if you are one of those protagonists, you could have derived a negative message from him.

Ben Bernanke who heads up the US federal reserve was chipper and growth focused in his remarks – notwithstanding the actual numbers, he used words like “I feel” and “in my opinion” to describe the economic recovery – terms usually reserved for politicians and not numbers oriented Central Bankers. Good for him though as President Obama rewarded him with another term as Fed chairman for his efforts.

The Forex marketplace this week has been slow and light, most everyone is off in some vacation spot, perhaps hunting Deer and Elk or eating burgers. Forex traders have not been moving the markets these past few days – and neither has any news for the most part.

The summer is winding down, quarter 4 is around the corner and the world is anxiously awaiting something to happen. In Europe, Germany’s growth and true recession exit is marred by the other EU countries that are still suffering double digit unemployment and negative growth.

In the US everyone, including the politicians and policy makers are on vacation, trying to regroup and figure out how to spend another Trillion Dollars that they don’t have on a healthcare package. And in China, they are selling their Dollars (shhhhhh).

In a world in which the lines between fact and political fiction, it is difficult to pin just where this economy is going. Yes there is some signs that things are getting better, but there also so many signs that there is bad news on the horizon.

In the past 3 months alone, 650 banks have closed in the EU and US – the pains are still there from last year. Unemployment numbers are still rising – and the politicians warn us this is going to happen for a while longer.

But something is happening, we are reaching a critical point in which something will happen. My belief is that it will not be good, but it can turn out to be positive – the haze of summer is upon us and Forex traders and online Forex bloggers like me are looking for a break in the air – a little clarity – and we are not getting it from those who are charged with honesty and truthfulness.

Keep your eyes open – next week will be a good one for numbers. For this week, enjoy the quiet, it is usually like this before the storm.

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Banks score big on the Economy

I have been so perplexed over the past week, hearing US Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke give a rally cry to the bulls, watching the positive data (or so it was interpreted as) come out and give hope, and seeing the Dollar hold steady.

I really believed that the Dollar would begin a more dramatic cave. But as it seems this was not to be, not just yet. You have bad data still, you have China unloading their Dollars, you have 10% unemployment and the number is growing and yet it was the reports from the banks scoring record profits that kept the Dollar on its feet.

But I have a different outlook, as I have read over the balance sheets over and again of the banks and their multi-Billion Dollar profits.

When an economy is bad, more people live check-to-check, and even tend to extend themselves more than at any time. When an economy is healthy, Banks derive profits from investments and to a lesser degree, fees and customer charges.

Now, in a time where home, car and personal loans have been dry, the fact that the economic growth is negative, and that the questionable securities have not recovered as an investment tool, leaves it hard to believe that banks are able to grow so much last quarter.

Looking at their reports, I can tell you that it is obvious where they are making their money from, and it is not a good sign for the economy.

In the US, when a bank customer goes beyond their account balance, they enter an overdraft territory in which they are charged obscene fees for having the bank cover their charges.

Now, in the past it had been a standard that the customer needed to apply and request this overdraft, and this is not to be mistaken for a typical loan or credit line which are different animals.

The customer would agree that if they charged using their bank car, or wrote a check, and there was no money in the account, they would pay a per-transaction fee and an interest fee calculated and prorated on a month to month basis. The interest is anywhere between 8-18% and the fees can be as high as $10 per transaction.

Now, according to Citigroup, Goldman and Bank of America, it seems as if 60% of their revenue was derived from “customer fees” and increase of 36% from the average between 2002 and 2008. So I dug a little further and here is the fact.

The average bank customer is paying, with fees and interest on overdraft, about 35% per month. Keep in mind that with the high fees, if a customer goes to a pharmacy and charges 1n $8 box of band-aids, he can be charged $18 plus interest on the full $18 as it is calculated at the end of the month.

Think about it, you have no money in your account and you make three charges for $100 in total, with $30 in fees plus interest on the $130 in total, you owe the bank $138. You took $100 and owe more than 1/3rd of that on top of your principle.

What the key is here is banks no longer ask customers if they want overdraft, they automatically approve every customer for it up to a set limit – like $5000. So even if you have no credit, if you have a bank account you do – and this is how the banks are making their money – 60% of it for that matter.

How does this affect the Forex online trader? It is just evidence that some Online Forex blogger has presented to you that the picture is not black and white showing recovery, there are problems and it is growing – growing enough that people en masses are borrowing and the banks are raping them on it, it is making a bad situation worse and the repercussions will come back to haunt everyone involved. Just watch retail sales and consumer prices – these will be telling numbers in the next few weeks.

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Forex News: Euro Update

Data reported on Friday showed that manufacturing activity contracted at a far slower pace than expected, and that the services sector decline seen over the past 11 months was flat in July, lifting the Euro a bit.

Forex Online Investors have still not picked up on the good news from the Eurozone despite positive growth reports from France and Germany and this signals the insecurity with the reported growth on behalf of the investors due to conflicting statements from EU officials.

The next few weeks can go a long way to shedding more light on the economic situation in Europe.

At the close the Euro was up .71% to the Japanese Yen to 135.2, up .5% to the British Pound to .8676, down .03% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.5487, up .1% to the Australian Dollar to 1.7155 and up .1% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5159.

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China's Dilemma - Status Quo or Shine

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have been fairing pretty well these past few weeks. Optimism about the state of the economy and the transparency of government efforts to save what they can of their thriving commodity export business has done them well.

Forex traders are aware of the highs being made by these currencies, and specifically at the US Dollars expense.

The recent sale of US Dollars by China had done much to help these countries. With China being the primary buyer of their minerals and metals, the sale of US Treasuries signals China’s unwillingness to stop their rampant buying. I personally feel this is a mistake but I am glad they are doing it as it is helping the currencies I like to trade the most. The problem I see arising in the near term though is the rise in prices of core materials.

The Chinese cannot continue funding their purchases by selling off their US reserves, it will only serve to hurt the value of the Dollar in the long run – and as holders of 3 Trillion Dollars worth, it is a significant amount that they have at stake.

China needs to come to terms with the state of the economy and slow down on their spending right now. This can help them in two ways:

1.The amount of buying they are doing is causing increased demand which is driving up prices, if they slow down, prices fall and they can save money.

2. The amount of money they are spending stockpiling raw goods could be better spent taking up larger stakes in the US Dollar, by doing so they increase their political influence and are in a better position to get what they want out of the US.

As well, it will help their cause with World Bank members in their efforts to establish a global reserve currency.

Online Forex readers know all too well that things are not what they seem. The recent stock selloff in Asia has traders nervous.

IT would go a long way to calming markets if China were to step up and seize the moment here – it could also change the way people think en masse about the US Dollar and Renminbi as a valuable trading tool.

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Is Chinese want to hurt the Dollar?

So I was reading a story in the Wall Street Journal last night and I came across a well muted tidbit of information that, if it continues, could serve to hurt the Dollar in the near and demolish it in the long term.

China, the US’s largest investor, sold off a significant chunk of its T-Bills in June. Now, in recent months there has been much talk from China about their concerns regarding the US’s debt load, but trust me on this, they would not be selling the debt at this time if they did not have to.

If they did, they stand to lose a serious amount of money if the prices go down based on the sheer volume as well as psychological implications of the act.

According to other sources I read after my curiosity was peaked, it seems as if the Chinese government is spread a bit too thin right now – having increased their feverish purchase plan of almost every natural resource in the Eastern hemisphere while investing heavy in mineral and oil excavation Africa as well.

In an economy that thrives on exports to be spending as large as they have been under conditions that are being equated with the Great Depression is just plain crazy – and culturally it was probably not easy for them to stop when they realized this.

Culturally, the Chinese are all about not making mistakes or miscalculations and while they were saying things were fine, they were really not.

The theory here is that the Chinese need to unload some of the 3 Trillion greenbacks they have to raise cash – by no means am I saying that China is in trouble, but they are not as well off at this point as everyone thought.

If this is the case, Forex traders can worry if they are long Dollar positions. The fact is, the Chinese have so much impact on the Forex at this moment based solely on their reserve levels, that the hint of a selloff would panic the market.

I don’t believe the Chinese want to hurt the Dollar, I will say this a thousand times, it is not in their interest to do so. I just think that their needs might inadvertently lead to this and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

For now, I will keep my nose in the online Forex world and ears to the whispers – perhaps I can help make more sense of this as the weeks go by.

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Chinese making an Impact on US Dollar

According to other sources I read after my curiosity was peaked, it seems as if the Chinese government is spread a bit too thin right now – having increased their feverish purchase plan of almost every natural resource in the Eastern hemisphere while investing heavy in mineral and oil excavation Africa as well.

In an economy that thrives on exports to be spending as large as they have been under conditions that are being equated with the Great Depression is just plain crazy – and culturally it was probably not easy for them to stop when they realized this.

Culturally, the Chinese are all about not making mistakes or miscalculations and while they were saying things were fine, they were really not.

The theory here is that the Chinese need to unload some of the 3 Trillion greenbacks they have to raise cash – by no means am I saying that China is in trouble, but they are not as well off at this point as everyone thought.

If this is the case, Forex traders can worry if they are long Dollar positions. The fact is, the Chinese have so much impact on the Forex at this moment based solely on their reserve levels, that the hint of a selloff would panic the market.

I don’t believe the Chinese want to hurt the Dollar, I will say this a thousand times, it is not in their interest to do so. I just think that their needs might inadvertently lead to this and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

For now, I will keep my nose in the online Forex world and ears to the whispers – perhaps I can help make more sense of this as the weeks go by.

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The world isn't as Rosy as it Seems

Back from vacation and it looks as if the momentum has shifted away from the Dollar. Don’t say I did not warn you all. The problem is, and it was evident in my last few posts before I embarked on week’s respite, that all these officials, also known as politicians, are making big and bold statements that are not supported by fact.

Two weeks ago had I said to you that the unemployment situation in the US was bad and getting worse you might have laughed – after all the initial numbers two Thursday’s ago were great, less people were filing for unemployment.

But, as you look back I did tell you this – and this past Thursday we saw what happens when you count your chickens before they hatch.

If you were not watching the numbers, let us just say that they were not pretty. From the mid-200,000’s to the mid 500,000’s in new filers for unemployment – the large drop took everyone by surprise.

And if we were to focus on the retail sales, dropping like a stone – or on the consumer confidence, nonexistent – or on the durable goods orders , flat – what is the bright spot for the US Dollar right now? Only ten days ago, Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner and president Obama were touting how they saved the US economy – how And from what? I must ask.

While the rest of the world seems to be crawling out of recession (see France, Germany, Australia and New Zealand and most recently this morning, Japan), the US is still in deep trouble.

Not that I buy the GDP numbers from those countries just yet – the Eurozone is still in bad shape, England is having problems and Japan is too reliant on exports to feel that safe yet.

Forex traders and Forex online enthusiasts are confused by all this and the trading patterns of these currencies prove it.

I said this before and I will say it again, go with your gut – do not believe everything you hear from a public official – read the numbers and then read how they figure them and then use your brain.

Trading the Forex is not difficult if you put in your time to research. This week will be an interesting one, stay tuned for more of the same from the Dollar and keep your eyes down under.

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Forex News

USD

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at current levels, but extended the long-term debt purchasing program, to the tune of $300 Billion.

The move helped vault the higher yielding currencies in a display of risk appetite and gave caution to traders who were thinking that all was well in the US economy.

While the Fed did say that the situation was much improved, and essentially gave no negative economic comments, the fact that they are extending the bond buying program signals that the US economy is still vulnerable and at risk of turning negative very quickly.

In the past few treasury sales, the Federal Reserve has been the primary bidder, essentially printing money in order to accomplish the purchases. The US economy, according to many analysts, is at risk if inflation as a result of the aggressive spending and debt issuance. Year to date, the US debt has increased by $1.27 Trillion in the fastest and most expensive spending spree on record.

At 3:00AM GMT, the US Dollar was down .25% to the Euro to 1.4221, down .22% to the British Pound to 1.6507, down .15% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0895, down .4% to the Australian Dollar to .8361, down .35% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6737 and down .16% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0763.

Other news…

Norway's central bank held rates at a record low, but opened the door for increased borrowing costs sooner than expected as the economy continued to recover.

Chinese stocks sank on Wednesday on fresh worries that this year's equity rally was running ahead of an economic recovery and bank lending was showing signs of cooling.

There are no major economic reports or data today, so Forex trading should be focused still on yesterday's reports.

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Forex Blog: Chart Analysis GBPJPY

The Pound has been a weak performer over the last couple of days as we forex traders discussed. This is a result of the BOE's surprise last week coupled with general risk aversion in the markets.

However this rationale is outweighing the steady flow of better than expected numbers - the latest being the RICS House Price Balance showing a -8% reading.

Are we to expect that there is sustainable UK housing appreciation? Hardly. If the US Federal Open Market Committee helps to set off a further round of treasury buying as they have in the past few auctions, then the JPY will continue to be the star performer here in the near term and we can expect downside momentum in GBP/JPY, which recently saw its attempt above the previous 162.50 area high firmly rejected.

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Forex News: Sterling Freezing its Losses

The British Pound Sterling extended its losses that from last week, after the Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing program, a move that surprised the markets.

It was widely expected based on relatively good numbers that were posted by the UK economy in recent weeks that the BOE would either not touch or reduce its policy.

Although Forex analysts site the triggering of across the board stop-loss sale orders as a major reason for the sharp decline in the Pound on Monday, which would equate the days trading with technical and not fundamental rules.

At 11:50PM GMT, the Sterling was down to 1.6479, a .4% decrease against the US Dollar, down .4% to the Euro to .8577, down .15% to the Swiss Franc to 1.7887 and down .6% to the Japanese Yen to 160.00.

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US Dollar on a Seesaw Ride

The US Dollar jumped higher against most currencies on Friday after a data release showed that the rate of job losses in the US slowed more than expected last month.

The data capped a week filled with very strong data that suggested the US economy will recover before other economies, and that will lead to higher interest rates and boost the value of Dollar related assets.

This Forex trading pattern was a turn for the Dollar which has been trading down on good news during this crisis. This appears to mark a return to simple fundamentals where trades are made based on economic growth and interest rate speculation.

At the close, the Dollar was up 1.3% to the Euro to 1.4181, up 1.5% to the Japanese Yen to 97.54 up .92% to the British Pound to 1.6681, up .34% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0811, up .6% to the Australian Dollar to .0837 and up 1.2% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0808. The Dollar did lose .3% to the New Zealand Dollar to .672 - it's only loss of the day.

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Good or bad for the Forex? I have no Idea

Continuing my thoughts from yesterday, on Wednesday the US reported a third straight month of Factory Order increase, a sign that things are picking up in the manufacturing sector.

The report was met with mixed results as the Dollar fell and stocks ended slightly off, an unusual occurrence as normally when stocks are down the Dollar is up as Forex Traders usually seek a safe haven respite.

I was watching Fox Business Network and they had an economist on who was analyzing the data and came up with similar conclusions to what I had said yesterday, simply, the reports that are coming out are not reflective of “the whole picture”. So this is the story behind the factory orders data:

About three weeks ago, the US announced a program called “cash for clunkers” which gives people $4,500 for their junk cars towards the purchase of a new car with more than a minimum of 17 Miles Per Gallon.

This program is supposed to encourage “green” purchases to help lower overall carbon monoxide gases, as well as a boost to the ailing auto industry enabling them to see out their old 2008 models to allow for increased production of 2009 models.

The program was launched in “test” areas about two months ago, and was met with wild success and went national two weeks ago. It has been so popular in the two weeks since, that Congress is approving another 2 Billion Dollars towards extending it.

Old model cars are flying off the shelves and as a result, the auto factories that have been closed for the better part of the year are cranking out 2009 models to refill the auto lots.

In anticipation of this success, the government asked auto part makers, those that support car manufacturing by producing the “nuts and bolts” of the cars, literally and figuratively, to begin working again – and gave them about 10 Billion Dollars in incentives to do so – taxpayer money.

Aside from this, the government is not only giving those that trade in a car $4,500 on the clunkers, they also give the dealers about 15 Billion Dollars in loan guarantees, more taxpayer money, to help those that cannot afford a new car even with the $4,500 credit, finance the cars. The average car sells for $30,000 in the US.

So the result of this is you have people who cannot afford a new car, people who never would have thought of buying a new car, now buying new cars to the rate of about 450,000 new cars in the past two weeks.

And they are doing it for the most part, with their own present and future tax dollars. To me this is not stimulus but rather stupid.

The program is good, don’t get me wrong, it helps real people, dealers, manufacturers, factory workers, but it misleads the investor as if it were not for the mass injection of cash on every level of this venture, factory orders would be negative again.

What is a Forex trader to believe? This is a difficult call as the factories are working and they are cranking out new product, but it is the government that is financing all this using money that does not exist.

The US government will be in a 13 Trillion Dollar hole next year – 1 Trillion less than the 2007 GDP of the country. They owe China 3 Trillion, Russia 1 Trillion and are poised to pass legislation on healthcare that will send them even further in the red.

So, the factory orders are good for now, but at what cost to the value of the Dollar overall is this happening. I am not ashamed to admit that I am stumped here – I don’t know how this will play out as this is a new concept. This is not like the housing starts numbers which are skewed – real people are benefitting – but as Forex Traders how do you trade on this info?

My Forex Online friends, if you have an ideas, please leave me a comment – I am curious to know how the rest of the world views this dilemma. For now, I am sticking to the Aussie as always.

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Rising oil prices have them Dancing Down Under

The Dollar has fallen to a year low against almost every major currency, given the problems that the US is facing, it is understandable - but the stock market gains are what is puzzling to me.

Forex Investors and traders are pumping up the markets because historically, when people have a sense of security they tend to abandon the the USD and the Yen and test their luck with stocks.

If the pundit, Nuriel Roubini is right though, the global economic challenge that we are facing is far from over. Only yesterday did the US revise 4th quarter 2008 and 1st quarter 2009 figures to show a decline twice than what was originally disclosed. Worse even, than at the worst time during the Great Depression.

The US Economy is still in freefall. The fact that Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, has now began telling news outlets that the biggest challenges lay ahead with the enormous deficit is a big warning sign of that.

Broker trading companies investing and trading in the markets have begun to recognize this as the Dollar has matched the economy. The market seems to have reversed from a psychological one to a fundamental one and this is good.

I still believe that the real money to be made lies with Australia and New Zealand. The risk is less because of the low value of their currency in comparison with the big four, Yen, Euro, Pound and US Dollar, and the yields can be higher.

The Aussie and Kiwi have been doing very well as of late, and the Australian honesty we saw last week has seemingly driven much confidence in the competence of the leadership there.

Oil is rising and with it other commodities that rely on the slippery black stuff to help extract it - the $71 per barrel that oil is now is very good for both down under dollars.
Keep an eye out this week for the unemployment numbers from the US and the British GDP figures. They will go a long way to showing us how to move in the coming days.

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