Rising oil prices have them Dancing Down Under

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The Dollar has fallen to a year low against almost every major currency, given the problems that the US is facing, it is understandable - but the stock market gains are what is puzzling to me.

Forex Investors and traders are pumping up the markets because historically, when people have a sense of security they tend to abandon the the USD and the Yen and test their luck with stocks.

If the pundit, Nuriel Roubini is right though, the global economic challenge that we are facing is far from over. Only yesterday did the US revise 4th quarter 2008 and 1st quarter 2009 figures to show a decline twice than what was originally disclosed. Worse even, than at the worst time during the Great Depression.

The US Economy is still in freefall. The fact that Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, has now began telling news outlets that the biggest challenges lay ahead with the enormous deficit is a big warning sign of that.

Broker trading companies investing and trading in the markets have begun to recognize this as the Dollar has matched the economy. The market seems to have reversed from a psychological one to a fundamental one and this is good.

I still believe that the real money to be made lies with Australia and New Zealand. The risk is less because of the low value of their currency in comparison with the big four, Yen, Euro, Pound and US Dollar, and the yields can be higher.

The Aussie and Kiwi have been doing very well as of late, and the Australian honesty we saw last week has seemingly driven much confidence in the competence of the leadership there.

Oil is rising and with it other commodities that rely on the slippery black stuff to help extract it - the $71 per barrel that oil is now is very good for both down under dollars.
Keep an eye out this week for the unemployment numbers from the US and the British GDP figures. They will go a long way to showing us how to move in the coming days.


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