The world isn't as Rosy as it Seems

Monday, August 17, 2009

Back from vacation and it looks as if the momentum has shifted away from the Dollar. Don’t say I did not warn you all. The problem is, and it was evident in my last few posts before I embarked on week’s respite, that all these officials, also known as politicians, are making big and bold statements that are not supported by fact.

Two weeks ago had I said to you that the unemployment situation in the US was bad and getting worse you might have laughed – after all the initial numbers two Thursday’s ago were great, less people were filing for unemployment.

But, as you look back I did tell you this – and this past Thursday we saw what happens when you count your chickens before they hatch.

If you were not watching the numbers, let us just say that they were not pretty. From the mid-200,000’s to the mid 500,000’s in new filers for unemployment – the large drop took everyone by surprise.

And if we were to focus on the retail sales, dropping like a stone – or on the consumer confidence, nonexistent – or on the durable goods orders , flat – what is the bright spot for the US Dollar right now? Only ten days ago, Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner and president Obama were touting how they saved the US economy – how And from what? I must ask.

While the rest of the world seems to be crawling out of recession (see France, Germany, Australia and New Zealand and most recently this morning, Japan), the US is still in deep trouble.

Not that I buy the GDP numbers from those countries just yet – the Eurozone is still in bad shape, England is having problems and Japan is too reliant on exports to feel that safe yet.

Forex traders and Forex online enthusiasts are confused by all this and the trading patterns of these currencies prove it.

I said this before and I will say it again, go with your gut – do not believe everything you hear from a public official – read the numbers and then read how they figure them and then use your brain.

Trading the Forex is not difficult if you put in your time to research. This week will be an interesting one, stay tuned for more of the same from the Dollar and keep your eyes down under.


Ganglion August 18, 2009 at 7:42 PM  

This is a very confusing week indeed. From an Elliot Wave perspective, the Dollar Index has just completed the wave 5 of a five-wave series going down. An upward move has just begun amongst contradicting news. In any case the rise of dollar in the short term is unavoidable.

Bob Pretcher, the Elliot Wave specialist, actually predicts a multiyear bull market for the dollar from this point on. Quite a prediction. Watch the video below:

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